January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Randyc321 said:

Why do you do that?  I'm curious.  You post slightly to mainly misleading statements all the time.

Andrew has a reputation for a reason lol. In general…it’s best to just look at the models yourself and make your own analysis. 

[Kolk1604]

3 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

GEM about to drop the hammer at day 7

Better snow totals too. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

Goddammit this ******* block doesn't cooperate. Border hugger....

[Olive1010]

Hmm. Looks like another wet snow scheme into next week

[DeepFriedEgg]

5 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

GEM about to drop the hammer at day 7

Block isn't beefy enough for me. At that point we are threading the needle for areas south of BLI

[Slushy Inch]

GEM is top tier stuff.

[ShawniganLake]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yikes another big step back. This is starting to look like a non event south of the border. 

 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, DeepFriedEgg said:

Block isn't beefy enough for me. At that point we are threading the needle for areas south of BLI

Not the case looking at next frames

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow Lol. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

Sign me up for this!

[DeepFriedEgg]

3 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

Why do you do that?  I'm curious.  You post slightly to mainly misleading statements all the time.

He is stating a fact. 12z was a massive step back at face value. Looks to be caving to the CMC ensembles.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

Sign me up for this!

Polar nuke!

[Randyc321]

1 minute ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

He is stating a fact. 12z was a massive step back at face value. Looks to be caving to the CMC ensembles.

His may be fact this time, but so is my statement. I just don't understand trolling. 

 

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

He is stating a fact. 12z was a massive step back at face value. Looks to be caving to the CMC ensembles.

But he's not. The GFS op has struggled the last couple of frames and is nothing like the GEFS. 

It's on its own right now.  Calling this a non event is misleading. 

[Nov1985]

17 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

The obvious hallmarks of a total bust. Winter cancel! /sarc

Ya, I mean the ECMWF ensembles 06Z mean 850T was even colder than the 00Z was. The 00Z was colder than the 12Z was. ECMWF ensembles are still trending colder.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

You people are funny, the Canadian looks awesome still and has a higher score compared to the gfs, the gfs takes a crap and the storm now is a border hugger? explain?

[Kolk1604]

Run to run change is incredible 

[FroYoBro]

The 12z GEM is arctic insanity and the 12z GFS doesn’t even get close down here. Obviously still tons of time to go. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

The GFS op is garbage. 3 straight runs dumping cold east of Rockies. GEFS has been okay, but still not awesome. GEM still fully onboard with polar plunge.  

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

You people are funny, the Canadian looks awesome still and has a higher score compared to the gfs, the gfs takes a crap and the storm now is a border hugger? explain?

To be fair, GFS was first to show Arctic outbreak and now is first to rug pull east of Rockies. Maybe it leads the way? GEM looks awesome, hopefully Euro does as well.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

To be fair, GFS was first to show Arctic outbreak and now is first to rug pull east of Rockies. Maybe it leads the way? GEM looks awesome, hopefully Euro does as well.

Typical gfs behavior 

[Phishy Wx]

18 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Andrew has a reputation for a reason lol. In general…it’s best to just look at the models yourself and make your own analysis. 

he's a human CFS. go with whatever is opposite of what he says

[Mid Valley Duck]

We're still a few days away from having certainty. The models and ensembles are all over the place. Here's last night's EPS Member by member view. Some drop the arctic hammer, some throw a massive ridge over us and some are in between. Anyone can take their pick.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/north-america/m1_geopotential-height-500hpa/20240112-1200z.html

[Nov1985]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

To be fair, GFS was first to show Arctic outbreak and now is first to rug pull east of Rockies. Maybe it leads the way? GEM looks awesome, hopefully Euro does as well.

I don't think GFS has been statistically proven to "lead" in anything, ever.

[RayRay]

it’s still on. 15 inches in Redmond is enough for me… this is the gfs

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

To be fair, GFS was first to show Arctic outbreak and now is first to rug pull east of Rockies. Maybe it leads the way? GEM looks awesome, hopefully Euro does as well.

It does this every time. 

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

You people are funny, the Canadian looks awesome still and has a higher score compared to the gfs, the gfs takes a crap and the storm now is a border hugger? explain?

I’m not sure if skill scores are meaningful when comparing the gfs and gem for something 7-10 days out.  Ensembles have been pretty split. I’d probably put the odds of arctic air (-10C 850s) reaching Seattle at about 40-50%

[TT-SEA]

Remember the ECMWF usually follows the GEM

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

I’m not sure if skill scores are meaningful when comparing the gfs and gem for something 7-10 days out.  Ensembles have been pretty split. I’d probably put the odds of arctic air (-10C 850s) reaching Seattle at about 40-50%

I'm interested in the early week storm, Latest runs try a develop snow over the hood canal.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

I don't think GFS has been statistically proven to "lead" in anything, ever.

It has been right on occasion. 

[Mercurial]

32 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

still raining over here, snow coming saturday and all next week it seems

Gonna be a great week for us both

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Remember the ECMWF usually follows the GEM

[lowlandsnow]

Snowy run for the GEM

[Nov1985]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

It has been right on occasion. 

But that doesn't speak to statistical performance and reliability when compared to other models. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’m not sure if skill scores are meaningful when comparing the gfs and gem for something 7-10 days out.  Ensembles have been pretty split. I’d probably put the odds of arctic air (-10C 850s) reaching Seattle at about 40-50%

Which would have been odds rhat everyone would have been ecstatic about on Dec 20. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, Nov1985 said:

But that doesn't speak to statistical performance and reliability when compared to other models. 

I get it, GFS is trash. Even so it still wins sometimes. I hope not this time. 

[ShawniganLake]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm interested in the early week storm, Latest runs try a develop snow over the hood canal.

It has my attention as well.  GFS is the most bullish but some of the other models are hinting at the potential as well. My area often does quite well in similar setups as the hood canal.  

[van city]

The highs and the lows here are hilarious. 

[SeanNyberg]

Listen folks. It’s called model riding for a reason. It’s not for the faint of heart. This ride is Space Mountain, Matterhorn, and Incredicoaster, not Peter Pan’s Flight or It’s a Small World.

These things crash and reappear and crash and reappear. And HOPEFULLY, by the time you get within a day or so, it is reappearing.

I know the gut punch feeling well, trust me. Lol. But be patient. Go for a walk, call your Mom and tell her you love her, play with your dog or cat, wait for the next round and then if all of the models pull back consistently over 48 hours, then go binge that show you’ve put off and look up houses above 5,000 ft elevation.

The last few GFS are obviously uninspiring and frustrating, but hope isn’t lost. Way too much out there pointing to SOMETHING(s) to throw in the towel.

chin up!!

[DeepFriedEgg]

12z CMC OP delivers the goods although block is sketchy to say the least.

Really interested to see new 12z CMC ensembles. The last two runs have been nothing short of a disaster (sliding the goods straight into the midwest).

12z GEFS will be telling. If they improve, let's hope they are not playing catch up to the OP.