Still all playing out like '19, '20, and '21.
Try a mental exercise, close your eyes.
Think of cold, snow, a wintery landscape. Think of the cityscapes of Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, and Eugene, and picture them with just globs of snow heaped over them. Keep your eyes closed and imagine maps filled with those pepto pinks and purples. Imagine that arctic air spilling over Vancouver Island and making its way back to Washington and Oregon. Imagine regional blizzard warnings and snow cov
Yeah, the delta on Monday will be telling with Graphcast and Spire. People forget (or don't know) that both models only work off of initialization data and then use various degrees of image based machine learning at very high terrain definitions. Its effectively taking those analog lists to the next level. This means though that there is no real condition modeling taking place, but rather a "I think this feature will develop here because it typically does when these patterns at these levels are
My position was that it was too much cold and wet and that nature always seems to offset that with even more warm and dry. You can complain about that thinking and say it didn't used to be that way but that seems to be how it works now. And of course none of us control any of it and cold/wet fans take what they can get... but it felt to me like the payback was going to make some people angry.
Really like where the 12z GEFS goes in the long range. Would be nice if the Euro came around eventually.
This would also be a pretty “balanced” outcome after what would be about two weeks of warm and dry weather at that point. At least the modern type of balance that leaves us with slightly warmer and drier than average months on the whole, but not shockingly so.
What we had for a few weeks in late April/early May was really beneficial despite the endless complaining about it. But if the faucet shuts off now it still wouldn’t be a good thing.
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