January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Minion]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Some will hate me for this, I suspect that N/S gradient will continue to tighten, with less cold making it down to OR as we get closer. Analogous patterns (most from the 1960s) did likewise.

Not saying it won’t be historic in OR but probably less so compared to WA.

Shhhhh

[iFred]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Some will hate me for this, I suspect that N/S gradient will continue to tighten, with less cold making it down to OR as we get closer. Analogous patterns (most from the 1960s) did likewise.

Not saying it won’t be historic in OR but probably less so compared to WA.

If you're going to keep up the trolling then you can take a break until spring.

[Minion]

It's going to snow next week 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

11 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Ensembles and their respective operational runs (except for whatever the GEM is doing) still look good-- though you can't exactly blame Oregon ppl for being a bit skeptical of any slowing of cold air. That being said-- February 2021, January 1980, January 1969... all ended up working out that way, so who knows 

Feb 2021 was awful for oregon, from south to the lower part of the north willamette valley, had a huge ice storm. So many trees got ruined, you can still see the affects to this day in salem. Birch trees got absolutely annihilated. 

My son in salem recorded 1¾inches of zr

 

 

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Some will hate me for this, I suspect that N/S gradient will continue to tighten, with less cold making it down to OR as we get closer. Analogous patterns (most from the 1960s) did likewise.

Not saying it won’t be historic in OR but probably less so compared to WA.

Which patterns specifically?

You often vaguely reference analogs and teleconnection relationships (e.g -NAO's apparent weight in Nino cold spells in the region). But when pressed for specifics you run off.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Checked the ensembles for salem, looks pretty good the weekend I'll be there. The large bulk of the ensembles keep it below freezing! Pretty glad about the trend of the ensembles getting better with each run. Although the 06z gefs was a little bit colder then the 12z gefs

[Front Ranger]

35 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I hope you're right. But historically, it's very rare for a -NAO to force Arctic air deep into the PNW when the GOA/AK ridge floats too far north or goes away.

I'd be curious to see an example of when a -NAO pushed Arctic air into the PNW without cooperation/help from the Pacific side.

 

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Which patterns specifically?

You often vaguely reference analogs and teleconnection relationships (e.g -NAO's apparent weight in Nino cold spells in the region). But when pressed for specifics you run off.

Yeah, I've asked him a couple times now to show me a specific example.

[sherwoodor]

we should have a little contest, someone put together a google sheets doc or similar and we can all add our own thoughts on:

lowest high
lowest low
percip amount
duration
etc...

 

Lots of bluster and opinions, lets see who comes out on top.

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, sherwoodor said:

we should have a little contest, someone put together a google sheets doc or similar and we can all add our own thoughts on:

lowest high
lowest low
percip amount
duration
etc...

 

Lots of bluster and opinions, lets see who comes out on top.

I tried this when I first joined, it got poo poo'd

 

FTR, I like the idea

[Phil]

Just now, iFred said:

If you're going to keep up the trolling then you can take a break until spring.

I’m not trolling dude. What the hell? So I can’t make predictions now?

How about you lay out these new rules that seemingly only apply to me. Because I’ve literally done nothing wrong. In the last 24hrs there have been dozens of negative/trolling posts FAR beyond anything I’ve said here in months, yet I’m catching 90% of the flack.

I don’t know what your problem is with me. If it’s personal then send me a DM. Talk it out. The long pseudo-sarcastic rents about tulip trees were funny the first 50 times but that schtick is growing stale.

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

 

Yeah, I've asked him a couple times now to show me a specific example.

Where did you ask me this? I never saw it. Rate of posting is hard to keep up with, maybe I missed it.

What exactly do you want me to elaborate on?

[umadbro]

Why would what Phil said be considered trolling?  He says it’s still gets good, just not as cold. 

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Where did you ask me this? I never saw it. Rate of posting is hard to keep up with, maybe I missed it.

What exactly do you want me to elaborate on?

What's a historical example of a pattern where -NAO caused an Arctic outbreak into the PNW, without cooperation/help from the Pacific side?

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Which patterns specifically?

You often vaguely reference analogs and teleconnection relationships (e.g -NAO's apparent weight in Nino cold spells in the region). But when pressed for specifics you run off.

The top SV analogs are late Dec 1968 and late Dec 1996.

[Doinko]

23 minutes ago, Phil said:

Some will hate me for this, I suspect that N/S gradient will continue to tighten, with less cold making it down to OR as we get closer. Analogous patterns (most from the 1960s) did likewise.

Not saying it won’t be historic in OR but probably less so compared to WA.

I think Jan 1969 also had a pretty pronounced N/S gradient. Extremy snowy though.

[MossMan]

19 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Which patterns specifically?

You often vaguely reference analogs and teleconnection relationships (e.g -NAO's apparent weight in Nino cold spells in the region). But when pressed for specifics you run off.

No time…He has another flight to catch and another COVID to catch as well! 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

12 minutes ago, sherwoodor said:

we should have a little contest, someone put together a google sheets doc or similar and we can all add our own thoughts on:

lowest high
lowest low
percip amount
duration
etc...

 

Lots of bluster and opinions, lets see who comes out on top.

I'm up for this idea, but the problem is, where are we forecasting for? Forecast for wherever you want or a specific town like Seattle? 

 

We could make a separate post and each reply has to be their prediction, and we'll go through them later, as this is a fun idea. 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

What's a historical example of a pattern where -NAO caused an Arctic outbreak into the PNW, without cooperation/help from the Pacific side?

What? I never said there’s “no help or cooperation” from the Pacific side. Is that really your takeaway from what I’ve said?

There have been -NAO driven events as recently as Feb 2021. Heck that one had a +PNA.  Key component in those is that they’re retrograde blocks.

[MV_snow]

36 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

A lot of time left…odds are almost always better the further north you go but it’s not a lock yet for western Washington either. I’m feeling good about it for now though! 

Since we’ve been model riding for 5 days already it feels like it should be a lock, but then I remember we still have 5 days of crazy riding to go!

[Phishy Wx]

ten years from now, Mossman and Dewey's avatars are going to be '2024'

[Requiem]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

The top SV analogs are late Dec 1968 and late Dec 1996.

One much better than the other for this part of the region...

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, MV_snow said:

Since we’ve been model riding for 5 days already it feels like it should be a lock, but then I remember we still have 5 days of crazy riding to go!

More like 84-96 hours I’d say. I think by the time late Monday into Tuesday rolls around we should have pretty good idea of what’s about to happen. Most of the models show things starting to get interesting in about 120-144 hours roughly. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

The top SV analogs are late Dec 1968 and late Dec 1996.

Late December 1968 was when Winthrop and Mazama set the all time cold temperature record for WA at -48

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Why would what Phil said be considered trolling?  He says it’s still gets good, just not as cold. 

Fred just doesn’t like me. Which is fine. I’d just rather the personal vendettas/etc be hashed out over dm or in OT section.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hr til the druncle.

[Perturbed Member]

Weather.com Portland forecast

We don't need the Phil when we have the IBM model on our side. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Hope there is a lot of snow.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Late December 1968 was when Winthrop and Mazama set the all time cold temperature record for WA at -48

I wish there is more data on this, i have talked to more than a few old timers up around chesaw that have had -40 -50 a few times in the last 30 years, one of them said they had -55 in 1968. It is possible, i have seen minus 26 on a night that was only forecast to be around zero up there. Many many cold sheltered valleys. I would bet money washington has had colder than that -48 no problem.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Requiem said:

One much better than the other for this part of the region...

Seemingly microscopic differences in the 500mb can make all the difference up there. I still have a lot to learn about that.

These are 500mb analogs in PNA/NA sector. Surface/mesoscale stuff I have no idea how it’ll play out. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Fred just doesn’t like me. Which is fine. I’d just rather the personal vendettas/etc be hashed out over dm or in OT section.

Boxing gloves

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Here in Oregon we understand Washington has great winters, but not us anymore. Seriously though, I feel like I’ve seen this movie before. 2020, 2011, 2005. I’ll probably get some snow, but it will be a bitter pill to know my other regional brethren are suffering. 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Here in Oregon we understand Washington has great winters, but not us anymore. Seriously though, I feel like I’ve seen this movie before. 2020, 2011, 2005. I’ll probably get some snow, but it will be a bitter pill to know my other regional brethren are suffering. 

thank you for your sacrifice

[Front Ranger]

13 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I think Jan 1969 also had a pretty pronounced N/S gradient. Extremy snowy though.

Here's what the overall pattern looked like for the period leading into and during the coldest part of Jan 1969.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Here are the 6-10 day CPC analogs. Pretty nice. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Here in Oregon we understand Washington has great winters, but not us anymore. Seriously though, I feel like I’ve seen this movie before. 2020, 2011, 2005. I’ll probably get some snow, but it will be a bitter pill to know my other regional brethren are suffering. 

Hopefully we aren't going to endure a 7 year stretch without a meaningful snow event. Dec 2021 was nice but we haven't had 2" or better since. Just a few traces in Feb 2023 and nothing else.

Haven't had an Arctic airmass since Jan 2017 but we have had some solid snow, like Feb 2019.

[sherwoodor]

11 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

I'm up for this idea, but the problem is, where are we forecasting for? Forecast for wherever you want or a specific town like Seattle? 

 

We could make a separate post and each reply has to be their prediction, and we'll go through them later, as this is a fun idea. 

 

Honestly, hadnt really thought that far ahead, more so I wanted to see if all of the big personalities on here would actually put something "in writing" to look back on after all is said and done. 

Divide OR and WA into quadrants and pick a town or well known spot in each one? I didnt want folks to have to work too hard, more fun than anything real competitive. Maybe even more basic: "coldest low in WA" "coldest high in OR" "most accumulation in OR" ... kind of thing... I'm sure y'all have way better ideas on what metrics and where, than I do. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS says to GTFO

[Prairiedog]

27 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Feb 2021 was awful for oregon, from south to the lower part of the north willamette valley, had a huge ice storm. So many trees got ruined, you can still see the affects to this day in salem. Birch trees got absolutely annihilated. 

My son in salem recorded 1¾inches of zr

 

 

That was the worst ice storm I can remember.  No power for two weeks.  Substantial property damage in every direction for miles.  No thank you.  We had a solid inch.  Can't imagine 1 3/4". 

We've missed out on the big PDX metro, SE metro snowfalls.  We get warm nosed on the foothills of the Cascades from Sandy to Silverton even when an overriding event hasn't happened yet.  It's a complimentary warm nose that comes with all events.  We''ve managed a few inches with the big snows that have hit the metro but nothing to write home about.  I'm guessing I'll be somewhere between June '21 and Dec '23 with this event. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Here's what the overall pattern looked like for the period leading into and during the coldest part of Jan 1969.

Probably why late December 1968 is the better 500mb match.

[Front Ranger]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Here's what the overall pattern looked like for the period leading into and during the coldest part of Jan 1969.

Here's Dec 1968.