January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[Phishy Wx]

that cutoff is a *****

fly in the ointment

I guess we punt to the GEFS

 

 

[Perturbed Member]

It's over.

[Mid Valley Duck]

Oh my god this is horrible!!!!

[iFred]

Just now, OysterPrintout said:

To be optimistic at least the "bad" runs end up with a big cold pool and some light snow and the possibility of some far more traditional overrunning magic.

You mean a cold pool that will moderate quickly, maybe some sloppy snow, and a quick transition to rain?

[umadbro]

That cut off low isn’t going to head staight into the middle of the ridge. Gfs is wrong .

[Christensen87]

Windstorm Tuesday? 

[Parrot]

12 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Looking good to me!

[SeanNyberg]

Just now, iFred said:

Unless something has changed, the 06z and 18z don't have human input and work with less parameters for initialization. 

I was going to mention that, but I didn't want it to seem that I was trying to explain away a pullback with technicalities. BUT. You are right, and the hundreds who are lurking and trying to make sense of this. The 00z and the 12z runs are considered to be more accurate. This is why the 18z is often referred to derisively as the "drunk uncle" or something similar.

This is true with this GFS 18z and it would also be true if the same run was wildly better.

So a step back, but a step back with the least reliable model run is the least concerning step back. (Does that make sense?  Is it confusing enough to put me in charge of making graphics for the NWS? lol)

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Oh my god this is horrible!!!!

f***** the worst, fold up shop and hit the road to Baja

[Mid Valley Duck]

It's over.

[Deweydog]

486dm thickness line takes a bite out of NE WA. Don’t see that too often.

[RentonHill]

thank god for the -NAO, amirite???

[Phishy Wx]

lol somehow this may be the coldest inside of 240 yet.  lol

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is the worst day of my life, F these Models.

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Lol this 'downgrade' is a dec 1968 redux

I mean, it's very cold as face value. Just not sure the dynamics are actually there to push things that far south. 

[Weiner Warrior]

That's too cold. Throw it out. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

-50 burgers in Montana. It's called the drunkle for a reason...

[Meatyorologist]

The projection is astounding with this event in particular. Let people discuss the weather in peace, no need to dismiss other people's interpretations because you're nervous about the weather and don't like what that person has to say.

'I'm worried about it sliding east or spilling into the Pacific' isn't warm trolling, it's making an observation and talking about it. We've seen those things happen. It was super frickin weird how this forum collectively decided 180hr was a very close timeframe, especially when dealing with a gyrating polar lobe.

[Requiem]

It's over

(For the pipes)

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

I mean, it's very cold as face value. Just not sure the dynamics are actually there to push things that far south. 

Excuse me sir, are you implying that the Global Forecasting System is...incorrect?

[Mid Valley Duck]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I mean, it's very cold as face value. Just not sure the dynamics are actually there to push things that far south. 

Phil's mega -NAO saves us

[iFred]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

The projection is astounding with this event in particular. Let people discuss the weather in peace, no need to dismiss other people's interpretations because you're nervous about the weather and don't like what that person has to say.

'I'm worried about it sliding east or spilling into the Pacific' isn't warm trolling, it's making an observation and talking about it. We've seen those things happen. It was super frickin weird how this forum collectively decided 180hr was a very close timeframe, especially when dealing with a gyrating polar lobe.

So you're not coming to the meet up on Thursday?

[SeanNyberg]

I just keep thinking of the HUGE majority of people reading this forum right now who don't have any formal meteorology education. I get the joking, the mocking, the dramatics of it all (it makes it fun), but we need a few serious, level-headed takes for folks who just want to know the basics.

As I said before, if you want an extreme winter weather event, this most recent model run isn't great. Yes, you can find surface temperatures that are extreme and pull some snowfall map that shows bright colors. But the issue is that the trend is troublesome.

If this were to play out perfectly as shown, it would be an event to remember, but it suggests a trend from the earlier models that have historically proven to be the downfall of winter weather in the PNW.

Let's hope it is just a blip and not a warning.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

I mean, it's very cold as face value. Just not sure the dynamics are actually there to push things that far south. 

Someone learned teleconnections!!!

[RentonHill]

my nostrils cracked open just looking at this

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Been pushed back to 8 days out again. It was like 6 days out a couple runs ago. This trend is worse for Western Oregon and I feel like things are only going to trend in a more negative direction.

Another border hugger event. Something that's been really lacking since Jan 2017.

[Weiner Warrior]

1 minute ago, SeanNyberg said:

I just keep thinking of the HUGE majority of people reading this forum right now who don't have any formal meteorology education. I get the joking, the mocking, the dramatics of it all (it makes it fun), but we need a few serious, level-headed takes for folks who just want to know the basics.

As I said before, if you want an extreme winter weather event, this most recent model run isn't great. Yes, you can find surface temperatures that are extreme and pull some snowfall map that shows bright colors. But the issue is that the trend is troublesome.

If this were to play out perfectly as shown, it would be an event to remember, but it suggests a trend from the earlier models that have historically proven to be the downfall of winter weather in the PNW.

Let's hope it is just a blip and not a warning.

Level-headed? What's that?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, SeanNyberg said:

I just keep thinking of the HUGE majority of people reading this forum right now who don't have any formal meteorology education. I get the joking, the mocking, the dramatics of it all (it makes it fun), but we need a few serious, level-headed takes for folks who just want to know the basics.

As I said before, if you want an extreme winter weather event, this most recent model run isn't great. Yes, you can find surface temperatures that are extreme and pull some snowfall map that shows bright colors. But the issue is that the trend is troublesome.

If this were to play out perfectly as shown, it would be an event to remember, but it suggests a trend from the earlier models that have historically proven to be the downfall of winter weather in the PNW.

Let's hope it is just a blip and not a warning.

Dude you wont change the forum, we like it the way it is, the new people will learn the dynamics. That is what makes this place special.

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Excuse me sir, are you implying that the Global Forecasting System is...incorrect?

It is...not infallible.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like 2-3 more 50F burgers to get through before that would potentially happen too.

Trending in a bad direction.

Up to 50F again today. Getting really fuckking sick and tired of this shitt. To this point it has been one of the worst winters I've experienced here. If this falls apart then that statement will continue to hold true.

I just don't trust anything unless it gets close to 72 hours out.

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

Phil's mega -NAO saves us

If it can stay super far west-based and we still have some Alaskan blocking, there's a chance.

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Dude you wont change the forum, we like it the way it is, the new people will learn the dynamics. That is what makes this place special.

It's definitely more human here than on Twitter. For better or for worse...

[Jbolin]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The projection is astounding with this event in particular. Let people discuss the weather in peace, no need to dismiss other people's interpretations because you're nervous about the weather and don't like what that person has to say.

'I'm worried about it sliding east or spilling into the Pacific' isn't warm trolling, it's making an observation and talking about it. We've seen those things happen. It was super frickin weird how this forum collectively decided 180hr was a very close timeframe, especially when dealing with a gyrating polar lobe.

Don't tell me what to do. Also, I concur. 

[Christensen87]

Cheers from Mission Ridge! Happy Friday. 

[OysterPrintout]

3 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

but we need a few serious, level-headed takes for folks who just want to know the basics.

Historically this has never been this forum. There's a huge variety of ways folks could learn more meteorology basics that I would strongly encourage; textbooks, classes at your local college, online courses, pro met blogs, even youtube videos, etc. This is an enthusiast forum full of a cast of characters largely intimately familiar with one another playing a huge variety of roles. This is more like a Shakespearean play for people who love weather. If you're here to figure out what's really going on, you're boned. If you're here to experience the gamut of human emotions and pick up what you can along the way, heck yeah have a seat.

[PrideOfPrineville]

Lurker here.  Finally decided to join.  Never trust the 18z is my motto.

[LowerGarfield]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like 2-3 more 50F burgers to get through before that would potentially happen too.

Trending in a bad direction.

I agree. It's about estimated totals or precip, but I don't like the trend for my location.

[SeanNyberg]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Dude you wont change the forum, we like it the way it is, the new people will learn the dynamics. That is what makes this place special.

There was no hope for you, trust me. I am talking about the folks who actually understand this stuff and can help the huge surge of guests who visit during potentially impactful weather and would like some some real insight.

Never said the kids can't have their meltdowns, but it's important for those of us who understand this stuff to help explain it to folks looking for some explanation. Eat your ice cream, some of us want a carrot or two.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, OysterPrintout said:

Historically this has never been this forum. There's a huge variety of ways folks could learn more meteorology basics that I would strongly encourage; textbooks, classes at your local college, online courses, pro met blogs, even youtube videos, etc. This is an enthusiast forum full of a cast of characters largely intimately familiar with one another playing a huge variety of roles. This is more like a Shakespearean play for people who love weather. If you're here to figure out what's really going on, you're boned. If you're here to experience the gamut of human emotions and pick up what you can along the way, heck yeah have a seat.

Lol I wouldn't go that far.

[RentonHill]