Still all playing out like '19, '20, and '21.
Try a mental exercise, close your eyes.
Think of cold, snow, a wintery landscape. Think of the cityscapes of Vancouver, Seattle, Portland, and Eugene, and picture them with just globs of snow heaped over them. Keep your eyes closed and imagine maps filled with those pepto pinks and purples. Imagine that arctic air spilling over Vancouver Island and making its way back to Washington and Oregon. Imagine regional blizzard warnings and snow cov
Yeah, the delta on Monday will be telling with Graphcast and Spire. People forget (or don't know) that both models only work off of initialization data and then use various degrees of image based machine learning at very high terrain definitions. Its effectively taking those analog lists to the next level. This means though that there is no real condition modeling taking place, but rather a "I think this feature will develop here because it typically does when these patterns at these levels are
Notice the EPS keeps extending the duration of IO convection in the long range. Clear that is where the low frequency forcing is trying to establish.
The “Splitting” of the -VP anomalies is the MJO propagating eastward while the low frequency forcing (base state) remains over the IO.
Pretty rare to have ridging through June. You are young. 2015 was a rare exception that has no chance of repeating this year.
And I would probably prefer 65 and cloudy over 95 and sunny on most days. But 72 and sunny is vastly superior to both!
The 12z CMC is one way out, but it seems like that model likes to follow that exact progression every other run, no matter the weather pattern in place.
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