1/8-1/10 Panhandle Hook

[winterfreak]

8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Thursday system helps fill in MN a bit more. Keeping my eye on this one for our area especially. Some models have it further south but there appears to be (maybe maybe maybe) some growing consensus for this solution.

The EURO ensemble mean seems to consistently show that wave targeting your area.

[Grizzcoat]

And now another flip flop the  other way !!!  GEFS lowering totals and S - GFS operational N and increasing totals.

This thing is near the international date line right now!!!  

 

Sunday is a transition day between the approaching early week
storm and the minor weekend event. Today the impulse that will
become next weeks system is still well off in the North Pacific
Ocean, roughly near 175W/45N and still 2.5 days from reaching Oregon
Washington coasts of the Pacific Northwest by 12z Saturday. Not to
underestimate the ability of models to forecast storms, this is
still well outside the window of high forecast certainty for track
and evolution.

 

Just coming into view on his satellite loop. Think there will be deviations in the track? 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-npacwestlarge-13-24-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

 

[uticasnow]

So true......

[Clinton]

I wish I could lock in the GFS.  Can't get much better than that.

[Bryan1117]

7 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Kansas is the place to be this run.

 

Another beautiful snow hole over Omaha… lock it in as this has been the pattern 3 winters in a row now here LOL.

[gabel23]

35 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

And now another flip flop the  other way !!!  GEFS lowering totals and S - GFS operational N and increasing totals.

This thing is near the international date line right now!!!  

 

Sunday is a transition day between the approaching early week
storm and the minor weekend event. Today the impulse that will
become next weeks system is still well off in the North Pacific
Ocean, roughly near 175W/45N and still 2.5 days from reaching Oregon
Washington coasts of the Pacific Northwest by 12z Saturday. Not to
underestimate the ability of models to forecast storms, this is
still well outside the window of high forecast certainty for track
and evolution.

 

Just coming into view on his satellite loop. Think there will be deviations in the track? 

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-npacwestlarge-13-24-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

 

That’s a long ways out there! Insane to think about really. Just watch when we get inside 84 hours how much models change then too!

[ATW]

33 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I wish I could lock in the GFS.  Can't get much better than that.

It’s been pretty consistent. We just have to hope,it doesn’t shift north too much. It will still be a heavy wet snow but looks like some cold air a couple days later to turn it into a glacier!

[Karl0719]

Just look at all the wild vorticity, the possible weakening or splitting of the SPV soon, the major El-Nino, subtropical jet, polar jet, confluence, all the way out to 240hrs on the major models. There is no reason to take any model seriously even within 24-48 hours of a storm onset. There’s just to much happening all at once that no computer/algorithm is ever going to resolve 100% right so just observe, understand a storm is obviously going to occur and see it through. There’s to much we can’t control going on right now it’s not worth the grief of riding every model run 5 days out. 

[Iceresistance]

GEFS jumped south

[Clinton]

53 minutes ago, ATW said:

It’s been pretty consistent. We just have to hope,it doesn’t shift north too much. It will still be a heavy wet snow but looks like some cold air a couple days later to turn it into a glacier!

It's exciting, it will be real exciting if it looks like this come Sunday!

[Clinton]

18z Euro Control at hr 144

 

[james1976]

8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro Control at hr 144

 

You're reeling it in!

[bud2380]

Not feeling good about a northern shift. Still plenty of time but models have been consistent with the further South solution. 

[KTPmidMO]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro Control at hr 144

 

Where did you get this run from? I like that run though, and the storm isn't even done in Missouri yet.

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

Where did you get this run from? I like that run though, and the storm isn't even done in Missouri yet.

This came from Wx Bell but you can also get the 18z Euro on Pivotal Weather.

[Grizzcoat]

ICON N at HR 126 / compared to 12Z-- like 100 miles N

 

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

ICON at HR 135 vs12Z -- also quicker to arrive.

[jaster220]

This afternoon's WPC "guestimate" map

As @Tom would say "here blizzard-blizzard-blizzard"

 

[Clinton]

0z ICON:  Topeka, KC, Chicago, Lakes

[Money]

I don’t see many significant changes at all so far on GFS

[jcwxguy]

[winterfreak]

Really worried this thing ends up too far south.

[Money]

One thing I do see is the high pressure to the NE of the storm up in Canada is much farther west this run which could cause this to push further NW?

[gabel23]

The gfs is my heart attack and celebration every 6 hours my gosh. Back giving me snow. 

[jcwxguy]

[winterfreak]

GEM is ugly:

[hawkstwelve]

GFS continues the ever so slight increase in totals for up here with that northern precip shield. CMC also looks better for up here. 

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Really worried this thing ends up too far south.

The NAO is really tanking, can't rule it out.

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[winterfreak]

4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The NAO is really tanking, can't rule it out.

If we can't score in this pattern. I mean...

[bud2380]

About ready to throw in the towel up here. Trends tonight were bad for pretty much the entire state of Iowa. Unless the Euro provides some new optimism, this just doesn’t look like it’s gonna get this far north. 

[jcwxguy]

[hawkstwelve]

Not sure what keeps going on with the GFS and it's ensemble suite. They continue to move in opposite directions. 

[jcwxguy]

[Hoosier]

00z UKIE is amped.

[Grizzcoat]

Pretty amazing when you think about it how good these models are-- even off 100 miles or so at this range. Location of system  and distance to the  Oregon coast. I know this is not where it will likely come ashore ( probably N of here ) -- but just gives one a better understanding of whats going on here. Baffles my mind.

[jcwxguy]

[winterfreak]

Yikes: