1/8-1/10 Panhandle Hook

[CentralNebWeather]

School closings are just beginning to get posted. Lots of anxious teachers and students across the state. Maybe not as many parents with the same anticipation.

[hawkstwelve]

Either AccuWeather knows something everyone else doesn't, or they are laughably bad at this whole thing called 'forecasting'. 

[hawkstwelve]

Winter storm watch upgraded to a warning, calling for 6-10 inches. The zone forecast for my county is showing a total of 8-12. Here's an excerpt from the afternoon AFD. Sounds like I might be in the sweet spot as far as SE SD goes for both parts of this storm. 

From 9pm to 12am, deterministic guidance is in good agreement in a
west to east oriented band of snow lifting north into near the U.S.
Hwy 20 corridor. Strong 850-750mb frontogenetical forcing for ascent
and moderate mid level lapse rates in the vicinity of the band will
continue a slow northward progression overnight. This initial heavy
band of snow will bring a swath of 3 to 6 inches of snow before
sunrise Monday morning. At this point, that heaviest band looks to
set the heaviest snow somewhere near Wagner-Yankton northeastward
toward Mitchell-Sioux Falls and Pipestone.

MONDAY: There will certainly be impacts to the Monday morning
commute given the expected overnight snow totals. 12z HREF model
guidance supports pockets of very heavy 1+ inch/hour rates of
snowfall in the corridor from Mitchell to Sioux Falls to Worthington
and northward toward Madison, Pipestone, and Marshall from 4 AM to 8
AM. These rates suggest snow removal may be difficult to keep up
with during the morning commute. Further southeast, snow amounts may
be lesser to start with even a break possible in the early morning
hours.

Periods of lighter to moderate snow will continue to be widespread
across the region (though with lesser snowfall rates) through the
day Monday and Monday night. Forcing becomes broader and more
synoptically driven as the corresponding sfc low ejects into the
Oklahoma Panhandle, more PVA driven in the vicinity of the inverted
sfc trough and approaching mid level wave/trough. As this system
pivots eastward, northwest Iowa receives the bulk of its snowfall
Monday afternoon and evening with periods of weak instability
leading to locally very heavy rates of 1+ inches/hour as well.

12z and early 18z model guidance continue to trend higher with
snowfall amounts, even giving low (<20%) chances of isolated 12+
inches of snow totals for counties from Yankton/Bon Homme to
Minnehaha to Lyon MN.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY: East winds on Monday will shift north in the
afternoon and evening as the sfc trough meanders eastward. North
gradient winds will strengthen heading into the evening. Tough to
say whether the encroaching low level jet will allow gusts to
persist overnight (which would further degrade travel conditions),
but even occasional 25 to 35 mph gusts are possible. Even occasional
gusts would cause at least drifting snow and patchy blowing snow (if
not more widespread) west of the James River Valley, reducing
visibility.

[gimmesnow]

12 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Either AccuWeather knows something everyone else doesn't, or they are laughably bad at this whole thing called 'forecasting'. 

Same here. Accuweather brought me down to 4-8, Watch is still for 6-11, Wunderground calling for about 8 in Portage. Guess we'll see, but you will see before I do.

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[CentralNebWeather]

21z RAP. Whoa. 

[jcwxguy]

4 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

21z RAP. Whoa. 

Move that band slightly east in northern Nebraska to Fremont 

[Tom]

Here’s some footage up the Mogollan Rim…

 

   

 

 

[jcwxguy]

Another change 

[jcwxguy]

Many many schools closed officially for tomorrow 

[gabel23]

9 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Many many schools closed officially for tomorrow 

The way things look and are playing out; schools will probably be closed for two days and possibly late starts Wednesday. OAX mentioned how the winds really are the worst into tuesday afternoon. 

Wind and possible near-blizzard conditions:

Initially, east/southeast winds 10-20 mph are expected while the
wet/heavy snow falls. As the snow tapers off from west to east late
Monday night, winds will begin to turn around to the northwest and
increase to 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 40-45 mph at times,
especially along and west of Highway 77. The winds will be most
intense from 3am Tuesday - noon Tuesday for the entire area.
Expect significant blowing and drifting of snow as the falling
snow has already tapered of from west to east. Near-blizzard
like conditions are possible for portions of the area Tuesday
morning. Winds begin to subside from west to east Tuesday
afternoon.

[CentralNebWeather]

2 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

The way things look and are playing out; schools will probably be closed for two days and possibly late starts Wednesday. OAX mentioned how the winds really are the worst into tuesday afternoon. 

Wind and possible near-blizzard conditions:

Initially, east/southeast winds 10-20 mph are expected while the
wet/heavy snow falls. As the snow tapers off from west to east late
Monday night, winds will begin to turn around to the northwest and
increase to 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 40-45 mph at times,
especially along and west of Highway 77. The winds will be most
intense from 3am Tuesday - noon Tuesday for the entire area.
Expect significant blowing and drifting of snow as the falling
snow has already tapered of from west to east. Near-blizzard
like conditions are possible for portions of the area Tuesday
morning. Winds begin to subside from west to east Tuesday
afternoon.

Yep. Just got the notification, no school here tomorrow. Did you hear our household screaming all the way to your house?

[gabel23]

Just now, CentralNebWeather said:

Yep. Just got the notification, no school here tomorrow. Just you hear our household screaming all the way to your house?

My girls are at dance; they heard it in Columbus! We haven't gotten the call yet but I'm thinking its coming! 

[CentralNebWeather]

2 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

My girls are at dance; they heard it in Columbus! We haven't gotten the call yet but I'm thinking its coming! 

There will be very few schools open in the state tomorrow, and possibly Tuesday imo. I know that the times we get multiple days off in a row, it is the county that lets our superintendent know. With the winds being forecasted, it usually leads to an extra day of cleanup. 

[jcwxguy]

[CentralNebWeather]

21s SREF 

[gabel23]

7 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

21s SREF 

WOW. Nice bullseye right over my county. I'm thinking we gonna be in for more surprises moving forward! 

[bud2380]

18z Euro has 1.1” qpf in Iowa City. Highest total in the state. 

[Andie]

We’re looking at a High of 61 tomorrow with rain chances rising overnight and temps in the upper 40’s to mid 50’s.  
Great winter weather for the Texas Flu…which my husband has.  I’m trying to stay  healthy. Getting too old for this. 
Need to win the Lottery and spend winter in So Florida.

[gabel23]

I'm gonna make a prediction and say this blizzard warning gets expanded to the north east tomorrow. 

[shakjen]

1 minute ago, gabel23 said:

I'm gonna make a prediction and say this blizzard warning gets expanded to the north east tomorrow. 

LOT must be out of the office today. My forecast is calling for 4-8” but we have no advisory yet. 

[CentralNebWeather]

18z EPS 

[Bryan1117]

7 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

18z EPS 

Lock this in please, approaching double digits in Omaha and Lincoln. If the precip stays all snow here, I could definitely see this happening.

[The Snowman]

00z HRRR appears to be trying to tick north a tad; pushing heavier forecasted snows into Omaha it would seem

[Stacsh]

Euro is no longer King.  That model has been terrible.  

[jaster220]

4 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Euro is no longer King.  That model has been terrible.  

How so?

[jaster220]

18z EPS says WPC shoulda stuck to their original d7 forecast, lol

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[CentralNebWeather]

3 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

My area would be buried if we got this with forecasted 50 mph winds. My goodness. 

[KTPmidMO]

Missouri is UGLY on HRRR. Makes me want to cry a little bit..

[hawkstwelve]

Dang, 15 inches for Sioux Falls on that new HRRRRR run. Still think that is on the extreme high end of possibilities but maybe there will be some surprises. 

[Hawkeye]

That's interesting how the HRRR has shifted the heaviest snow band northwest of Cedar Rapids.

[CentralNebWeather]

You can tell a storm is coming. Gusty east/southeast winds bringing in moisture. 
I don’t think there is anything going to be open around here tomorrow. Every school district is closed. 

[MKEstorm]

18z EURO has me in the bullseye, but has consistently put my location on the border mix rain/snow line due to it's proximity to the relatively warm (lower 40s) lake! However the 18z run has moved the mix line more east, closer to the lake. I live approximately 8 miles west of Lake Michigan. Maybe I shouldn't be too concerned about this since my NWS forecast calls for 6-10 inches!

 

 

[Stacsh]

44 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

How so?

It’s still giving me 7”.  We aren’t going to see more than 2”.   It’s been bad.  

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]