1/8-1/10 Panhandle Hook

[Hawkeye]

5 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

GFS right in that 6-8" wheel house we talked about for Cedar Rapids.

 

Totals appear to be dropping for areas north and west of Waterloo.

[hawkstwelve]

It seems like most morning models show another 4-7 inches here with the main system, which aligns very nicely with the NWS forecast. I have a feeling we might be on the lower side of that range given the slight ESE movement with the heavier totals up here (moreso aligning with NW IA) but with roughly 8 inches on the ground already I'm feeling pretty damn good no matter what happens from this point. Everything else is just icing on the cake.

That being said, I'm really pulling for the more southern folks to score! I've experienced countless last minute rug pulls in the PNW so I know the feeling of everything seemingly falling apart 24 hours before the event starts. Looks like there are some extremely last minute slightly more favorable trends for down there so I'm crossing my fingers for you guys. Best of luck!!

[bud2380]

The RAP has shifted dramatically south from just a few hours ago.  The 15z will be the full run, the 14z only goes to 21 hours.  

 

[Grizzcoat]

Not so sure I by this for C.IA-

NBM- 12Z   (if it's a blend what is it seeing that the GFS/NAM/NAM 3KM aren't) -- with those lucky to get 4-6" - but this 7-9" - go figure.

[mlgamer]

The rain has changed to mostly snow at my house now and the temp is slowly falling and now 36.9. Hopefully it stays snow from now on and we get the party started but who knows...

[bud2380]

Canadian seeing that south shift too.  Still in that 6-8" zone for Cedar Rapids though.

 

[KTPmidMO]

How is everyone's actual temps comparing to hourly forecast temps?

Mine appears to be a few degrees colder at 36 compared to the forecast 39 at 10 AM.

[bud2380]

Current temps at 10am

 

HRRR forecast - pretty spot on.  For Iowa of course.

[bud2380]

15z RAP

 

 

[Jayhawker85]

10 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

15z RAP

 

 

@mlgamer you ready for the upgrade to winter storm warning?

[East Dubzz]

13 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

15z RAP

 

 

LOCK IT IN 

[tStacsh]

I'm having a  Low Party at my house.  Dry slot invited as well.  

[Tony]

Looking better with these 12z runs so far. Was getting a little worried here in the western burbs of Chicago but with the recent SE trends it doesn't look half bad. SE trend is also helping other areas of this Sub.

[gabel23]

It’s absolutely ripping out there wow!! Started at 830 and picked up 3” in those two hours. 

[mlgamer]

21 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

@mlgamer you ready for the upgrade to winter storm warning?

Yeah, I think Wichita added some counties so I think maybe an upgrade could be coming. That dry slot is bothersome but I guess Wichita didn't think it'll be a problem so maybe things are a go!

[Clinton]

26 minutes ago, East Dubzz said:

LOCK IT IN 

Half of this would be one of the biggest surprises ever.  I like the trend

[Clinton]

33 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

@mlgamer you ready for the upgrade to winter storm warning?

 

8 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Yeah, I think Wichita added some counties so I think maybe an upgrade could be coming. That dry slot is bothersome but I guess Wichita didn't think it'll be a problem so maybe things are a go!

This is exciting!

[bud2380]

I'll post the CAMs just in case they weren't previously.  Some pretty impressive totals.  If we truly get convective snow in spots, we could see some isolated areas with these heavier totals.

FV3

WRF-NSSL

 

ARW

 

[bud2380]

The RAP at 7am tomorrow (where the model ends on the 16z run) shows heavy snow rates in SE Iowa including up to Cedar Rapids.  This could be when accumulations really ramp up.

 

[bud2380]

No real change on the 16z RAP vs 15z through 7am tomorrow.

 

[Grizzcoat]

OMA with the dreaded ping feast.

[bud2380]

Some big returns already in Sioux Falls.  @hawkstwelve how much you got?

 

[gabel23]

Things have lightened up a bit, I use the town elevator to judge how hard it’s snowing. I’m a block and a half away from it!

[hawkstwelve]

15 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Some big returns already in Sioux Falls.  @hawkstwelve how much you got?

 

Between 9-9.5 inches here so far. Snow had stopped for a couple hours earlier but has since started back up. 

I remember the RAP from yesterday was showing 10 inches here by around 10AM and I thought that was crazy high. Apparently, it wasn't as crazy as I thought.

[winterfreak]

Snow starting to mix in with the rain.

[bud2380]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Between 9-9.5 inches here so far. Snow had stopped for a couple hours earlier but has since started back up. 

I remember the RAP from yesterday was showing 10 inches here by around 10AM and I thought that was crazy high. Apparently, it wasn't as crazy as I thought.

Crazy, and for days you looked like you were gonna get missed altogether.  HRRR shows another 4" yet to fall in Sioux Falls, so you may have over a foot by the time its all said and done.  

[Bryan1117]

28 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

OMA with the dreaded ping feast.

Yeah the forecast looks like it is going to bust here one again, I am afraid… what’s new around here. Hopefully this switches over soon as our grass is barely covered.

[Grizzcoat]

1 hour ago, KTPmidMO said:

How is everyone's actual temps comparing to hourly forecast temps?

Mine appears to be a few degrees colder at 36 compared to the forecast 39 at 10 AM.

Temps have not moved here at my locale in last hour or so.  32.5F. -- HRRR and RAP have progged 35-37F here in 20 minutes.

Just need the precip to start here. I'am banking on it being all snow (as is the NWS) and not with HRRR / RAP which a good inch of snow is wasted to  liquid.  

[hawkstwelve]

7 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Crazy, and for days you looked like you were gonna get missed altogether.  HRRR shows another 4" yet to fall in Sioux Falls, so you may have over a foot by the time its all said and done.  

Yup. Just a few days ago I was telling my family that we would probably end up between 2-4 inches, maybe 6 if everything went just right. So it definitely trended much nicer down the home stretch primarily due to the earlier WAA band that setup over this area. Without that I would have probably ended up closer to my initial guess.

[Jayhawker85]

Local Mets are talking about upper their totals and the need for the local NWS to up us warning criteria 

[BDT]

12 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Yeah the forecast looks like it is going to bust here one again, I am afraid… what’s new around here. Hopefully this switches over soon as our grass is barely covered.

Not looking good at all. Melting on contact

[gabel23]

Picked up 5” in three hours so far! 

[winterfreak]

It's changed over to all snow here.

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Local Mets are talking about upper their totals and the need for the local NWS to up us warning criteria 

Rain mixing with snow here and windy.

[bud2380]

Euro with heavy rates between 3am and 6am.

 

[bud2380]

Extremely heavy rates between 6am and 9am just SE of iowa City into the Quad Cities.  That's looking like the sweet spot on the Euro. Just southeast of Ottumwa up to the Quad Cities and Clinton, IA. 

 

[Bryan1117]

13 minutes ago, BDT said:

Not looking good at all. Melting on contact

It’s just ugly and stupid, the short term models seem to be showing the warm air fetch into East Central Nebraska and Western Iowa… this is going to cut into our totals big time. Still have some hope to make at least 6”, but it’s definitely dwindling.

[Money]

Euro increases totals in Iowa 

[bud2380]

Only 1/10" difference on the 12z Euro vs. 6z Euro for Iowa City and Cedar Rapids.  Barring a late minute shift the heaviest band in Iowa looks like it will setup just south of Iowa City.

 

[Black Hole]

Little bit of a last minute trend in models to wrap a little more precip around to my area tomorrow morning. Still no way we get anything meaningful, but perhaps 0.1-0.2" of snow is possible.