January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

Going on basically nothing except the fact that this is a strong niño, I would be shocked if we get another chance this winter. I honestly feel pretty lucky to be seeing the mountain snow dump over the next few days and I’m just hoping it doesn’t get obliterated in a couple weeks by another warm atmospheric river.

2019. 

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

https://x.com/griteater/status/1744378019953754594?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

You're going to score, Phil.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

This is pretty much the dream scenario for PDX. Colder and more suppressed. PDX on the northern edge of the precip. 

Brought to you by Google Glass, Quizno’s and Arctic Aspartame Energy drinks.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

 

Portland is more due to score a big event overall, despite last February. 

That being said, the Puget Sound's last big January event was in 2012, and Portland's was 2017. So January is more due for Seattle/Tacoma.

There does tend to be a tendency for Portland to score a little more often and bigger during +ENSO winters, for whatever reason.

I’m pretty sure that it’s going to be just fine up here too anyways despite the hand wringing over snow maps 4-5 days away. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Brought to you by Google Glass, Quizno’s and Arctic Aspartame Energy drinks.

Have you had one of those Celsius things? I drank one a couple months ago not realizing they have about 10X the caffeine as a cup of coffee. I then went on a manic posting spree on here, so it was like any other day, but I felt legitimately unwell. 

[Skagit Weather]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

2019. 

That was a pretty weak niño. Michael Snyder showed it has only snowed twice in Seattle in the last 50 years during a strong niño.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It would really be good news for all this to trend south, the longer we can stay cold the better. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Have you had one of those Celsius things? I drank one a couple months ago not realizing they have about 10X the caffeine as a cup of coffee. I then went on a manic posting spree on here, so it was like any other day, but I felt legitimately unwell. 

I used to do energy drinks back when I worked at the semiconductor foundary. But I haven’t had one in over ten years.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It would really be good news for all this to trend south, the longer we can stay cold the better. 

As opposed to trending wetter?

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

8 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

I've always wondered, why rain enthusiast and not snowenthusiast? It does make your profile stand out.

If you don't learn to love the rain, it can be tough out here. I see the beautiful ecosystem that the excessive rain supports: the frogs, the moss, the trees, the creeks, the lakes, the salmonberries... how can you not love rain? I get to watch my son tend to our creek or my daughter stomp in puddles. Following heavy storms, the nearby waterfalls act as white noise the moment I step outside my house. 

In the last 90 days, I have had ~30" of rain and ~0" of snow. So it works out. Don't get me wrong though, I absolutely love snow. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

11 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

 

Portland is more due to score a big event overall, despite last February. 

That being said, the Puget Sound's last big January event was in 2012, and Portland's was 2017. So January is more due for Seattle/Tacoma.

There does tend to be a tendency for Portland to score a little more often and bigger during +ENSO winters, for whatever reason.

I think so minus the swamp general area. 

 

• Feb 2019: Turned to rain instantly while snowed south and north for another 18-36 hours.
• Jan 2020: Busted down south
• Dec 2021 I believe? East wind caused Puyallup/South Hill specifically to get 60% less than surrounding cities. Total was 5in I believe.
• Winter 2022/2023: 2in total (my area did better). Up north/south did good.

The last favored storm for the South Sound was Feb 2017.

I rather have PDX get snow then up north (sorry Randy)

 

 

Edited January 8 by SouthHillFrosty

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Have you had one of those Celsius things? I drank one a couple months ago not realizing they have about 10X the caffeine as a cup of coffee. I then went on a manic posting spree on here, so it was like any other day, but I felt legitimately unwell. 

More like 3x, but yeah...not for the faint of heart. And they're packed with sucralose (sugar substitute), which I personally try to avoid as much as possible.

[jakerepp]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Have you had one of those Celsius things? I drank one a couple months ago not realizing they have about 10X the caffeine as a cup of coffee. I then went on a manic posting spree on here, so it was like any other day, but I felt legitimately unwell. 

I drink a Red Bull or something else a few times a month. Never had one of those Celsius things.

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

That was a pretty weak niño. Michael Snyder showed it has only snowed twice in Seattle in the last 50 years during a strong niño.

SSW will say screw you strong Nino! 

[Requiem]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

I think so minus the swamp general area. 

 

• Feb 2019: Turned to rain instantly while snowed south and north for another 18-36 hours.
• Jan 2020: Busted down south
• Dec 2021 I believe? East wind caused Puyallup/South Hill specifically to get 60% less than surrounding cities. Total was 5in I believe.
• Winter 2022/2023: 2in total (my area did better). Up north/south did good.

I rather have PDX get snow then up north (sorry Randy)

 

 

Next events should exclusively target Eugene/Salem and Olympia to downtown Seattle 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The resolution on that is so bad I can't make heads or tails of anything on this. 

Wish they had zoomed in maps. I can tell where Puget Sound is but PDX is more difficult.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I think so minus the swamp general area. 

 

• Feb 2019: Turned to rain instantly while snowed south and north for another 18-36 hours.
• Jan 2020: Busted down south
• Dec 2021 I believe? East wind caused Puyallup/South Hill specifically to get 60% less than surrounding cities. Total was 5in I believe.
• Winter 2022/2023: 2in total (my area did better). Up north/south did good.

I rather have PDX get snow then up north (sorry Randy)

 

 

I don’t know what the average snowfall per year is in fife…but I’m pretty sure just a few miles away at my house it’s close to double the number. I’ve seen many occasions where it’s snowing and sticking at my house but cold rain in fife. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Requiem said:

Next events should exclusively target Eugene/Salem and Olympia to downtown Seattle 

Are you back in Eugene? 

[Requiem]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Have you had one of those Celsius things? I drank one a couple months ago not realizing they have about 10X the caffeine as a cup of coffee. I then went on a manic posting spree on here, so it was like any other day, but I felt legitimately unwell. 

I had 2 of those in one sitting while cramming for finals... man, not one of my smartest ideas 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Pretty crazy to see the EPS spaghetti charts now pretty much identical to how the GEFS has looked the past 3-4 days.

[AbbyJr]

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

If you don't learn to love the rain, it can be tough out here. I see the beautiful ecosystem that the excessive rain supports: the frogs, the moss, the trees, the creeks, the lakes, the salmonberries... how can you not love rain? I get to watch my son tend to our creek or my daughter stomp in puddles. Following heavy storms, the nearby waterfalls act as white noise the moment I step outside my house. 

In the last 90 days, I have had ~30" of rain and ~0" of snow. So it works out. Don't get me wrong though, I absolutely love snow. 

Wonderful post.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Pretty crazy to see the EPS spaghetti charts now pretty much identical to how the GEFS has looked the past 3-4 days.

Still an incredible amount of flux. I think we will continue to see wild swings in the long range as well as the block over Alaska does its best to re-orient in a favorable manner. 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Pretty crazy to see the EPS spaghetti charts now pretty much identical to how the GEFS has looked the past 3-4 days.

My new glasses are getting a workout trying to follow the lines! 

[Requiem]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Are you back in Eugene? 

Yep

[Cold Snap]

18z NAM looks great for Portland folks tomorrow night.

[SnarkyGoblin]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Have you had one of those Celsius things? I drank one a couple months ago not realizing they have about 10X the caffeine as a cup of coffee. I then went on a manic posting spree on here, so it was like any other day, but I felt legitimately unwell. 

Now THAT'S humor.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

21 minutes ago, clipper_range said:

Trended a tad SW. Can't wait to see the end result of these models. This has been an intense influx of different resolutions for the models to figure out. 

 

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That's exciting. This is an impressive airmass coming down, here's to hoping we can see some minor jet suppression. If we can I PROMISE W. WA folks it will all work out for them in the end. 

 

16 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

This is pretty much the dream scenario for PDX. Colder and more suppressed. PDX on the northern edge of the precip. 

Right now I think somewhere between what the GEM/UKMET/EURO is showing and what the GraphCast has will happen if I were to guess right now. PDX is in a good spot. Still got a few more days to hammer out the details.

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Pretty crazy to see the EPS spaghetti charts now pretty much identical to how the GEFS has looked the past 3-4 days.

What was the coldest the EPS mean had hit previously?

[The Cats Meow]

Well, anywhere from Corvalis to Bellingham could see snow coming up.

A bit early to declare Oregon the big winner.  Have we learned nothing about the models?  Wait a few hours and they'll spit out a new solution.

In the past the modeled precipitation usually lifts further north than expected.

I think everyone is going to get some snow.

Believe.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

What was the coldest the EPS mean had hit previously?

The last couple runs it was still touching -10c. I think at one point it was as low as -12c or so for PDX.

[Front Ranger]

14 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I used to do energy drinks back when I worked at the semiconductor foundary. But I haven’t had one in over ten years.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Now that on the other hand…

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Why did Andrew get banned today? He can't access the board on his phone.

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

18z NAM looks great for Portland folks tomorrow night.

Not shabby at my place either! 

[MV_snow]

Pretty interesting weather day here today. Getting copious amounts of rain like an AR but without the AR-like temps. Mountains are getting nuked which is a victory in itself for a Nino year.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Why did Andrew get banned today?

He took an unscheduled timeout over the weekend but I think he’s back now unless he was just now banned? 

[Phil]

27 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

You're going to score, Phil.

Not if these cyclones keep bombing out west of the apps.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

New blog post from Mark!

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

He took an unscheduled timeout over the weekend but I think he’s back now unless he was just now banned? 

He says he got banned in the last 15 mins.