January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

I understand the verification scores, but the GFS has picked up on all of the initial wrinkles before every other model. It has led the way with this setup. In 72 hrs when it all shifts north like shown on the 18z the GFS will catch up on that graph

[Requiem]

1 minute ago, Tyler Mode said:

I foresee someone saying "oh my gosh it just keeps coming down!" this weekend...

Someone between Portland and Bellingham for snow most definitely, but I could see valley people saying this for the ZR 

[snow_wizard]

It is worth mentioning the GFS had a run yesterday that showed no cold at all.  It has been far from stellar.

Another interesting note is today's Graph Cast showed a second legit cold shot with 850s dropping to -16 over SEA again.  Previous run had hinted at it and this one pulled the trigger.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You can think that and it has done terribly with the lead up... but that is completely irrelevant in terms of its skill with surface details within 72 hours.

In 72 hrs we get our answer. The GFS will win this one.

[JW8]

I'm so nervous for this game, I can barely function. I'll give up snow for the next decade for a national championship. GO DAWGS!!!!!!!

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, Requiem said:

Someone between Portland and Bellingham for snow most definitely, but I could see valley people saying this for the ZR 

Models seem to be showing huge amounts of precip with that system now, I think it'll really dump snow on someone

[Requiem]

Fwiw the 18z euro is slightly faster with the progression of cold air

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

I foresee someone saying "oh my gosh it just keeps coming down!" this weekend...

Or it's dumping like a MOFO!

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

In 72 hrs we get our answer. The GFS will win this one.

For Thursday?   The GFS shows even less snow than the ECMWF from Everett southward.    After that it gets crazy.  

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Requiem said:

Fwiw the 18z euro is slightly faster with the progression of cold air

And slightly deeper south also.

[Perturbed Member]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You can think that and it has done terribly with the lead up... but that is completely irrelevant in terms of its skill with surface details within 72 hours.

Hopefully this translates into something meaningful tomorrow night. The Euro has been pretty consistent in showing snow in PDX Tuesday night. The 18z run looks pretty decent. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, JW8 said:

I'm so nervous for this game, I can barely function. I'll give up snow for the next decade for a national championship. GO DAWGS!!!!!!!

For a decade?  Yikes.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Took a few pics on my walk before the game.  Hope all of you can get snow.

 

 

[fubario]

I'M DVRING THE GAME!!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

16 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Bellingham and Vancouver are in the single digits while Portland isn't even below freezing

The approaching system on Friday is going to pull the cold air from the Columbia Basin into PDX. Should get below freezing rather easily.

[Parrot]

Too busy with football related things, sounds like 18z euro and gfs are bad?

[The Cats Meow]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For Thursday?   The GFS shows even less snow than the ECMWF from Everett southward.    After that it gets crazy.  

Is the heavy snow dump still trending north?  Bellingham?

[TT-SEA]

Just now, The Cats Meow said:

Is the heavy snow dump still trending north?  Bellingham?

Spreads north from Portland to Vancouver BC.  

[The Cats Meow]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Spreads north from Portland to Vancouver BC.  

Beautiful.  I don't like freezing rain so hopefully we can avoid any of that nonsense.

[Mid Valley Duck]

I hope the Huskies season falls apart like our cold models did

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Mid Valley Duck said:

I hope the Huskies season falls apart like our cold models did

Season can't fall apart.  Season is over and it was a success.   

[Christensen87]

I have a good feeling for some reason about the cold/snow, I think things will be OK. Now let’s go DAWGS!!!

[SnowWillarrive]

I’m looking forward to the Tuesday night early Wednesday time frame. I’ll feel good scoring a dusting prior to the arrival of the weak arctic front. 

[Weiner Warrior]

2 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

I hope the Huskies season falls apart like our cold models did

Huskies score will be trending North just like that low on saturday

[Tyler Mode]

Saturday morning preview in Portland...

[TacomaWx]

Been here at highway 18 working for almost 12 hours treating water. Has been raining on and off here almost all day. Had some wet snow mixed in at times this morning but not anymore. Can see some snow on the hilltops nearby though.

[Jean Ralphios Ghost]

11 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Took a few pics on my walk before the game.  Hope all of you can get snow.

 

 

I've been watching all day on the Leavenworth live cams!  I had figured seeing it snow in Leavenworth might be my only shot at seeing snow this year with el nino!   Hoping this week will change that, but it's been fun to watch it snow there in the meantime. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

For a decade?  Yikes.

I wouldn't trade 5 minutes of snow for a game. Lol

 

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Good luck husky fans!

[RCola]

I'm getting this sinking feeling that either the low trends south and downtown Seattle is screwed and cold or the low trends north and downtown is screwed and warm. The split the difference solution just doesn't sit right with me given everything that has happened the past two days. I hope I'm wrong, but it seems like a lot of threading the needle would have to happen for downtown to score something decent this weekend. 

[snow_wizard]

The 18z ICON nails us Friday night. 23 degrees after this has all fallen.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

5 minutes ago, Jean Ralphios Ghost said:

I've been watching all day on the Leavenworth live cams!  I had figured seeing it snow in Leavenworth might be my only shot at seeing snow this year with el nino!   Hoping this week will change that, but it's been fun to watch it snow there in the meantime. 

Hope you get snow!

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, Parrot said:

Too busy with football related things, sounds like 18z euro and gfs are bad?

Not exactly.

[Olive1010]

The models are always a fight between Portland and Seattle 

[RCola]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The 18z ICON nails us Friday night. 23 degrees after this has all fallen.

And it's the stingy ICON, too. If only the event was 6 hours away and not 120.

[Ken in Wood Village]

The pressure has been falling for the past few hours from the approaching storm system. The next 48 hours will be fun 🌬🌨🌧

[Slushy Inch]

7 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Saturday morning preview in Portland...

In Oregon drive just cut me off. I think that’s a sign Oregon gets all the snow

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

I have a good feeling for some reason about the cold/snow, I think things will be OK. Now let’s go DAWGS!!!

00z CFS shows a Huskies win in a squeaker.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

9 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Saturday morning preview in Portland...

You’re a smart man Tyler!

[MossMan]

What an exciting week!