January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Way south on Friday afternoon... by a long shot compared to GFS.

Beautiful  

[TT-SEA]

Cold on Friday.

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

I think that might be the reason the weekend systems head south. They don’t have time to make it further north as the jet gets suppressed.

Big time. Looks like drier and colder is winning out.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

It’s over for us 

Not so sure at this point.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

At this rate Portland might be in trouble if you believe the Euro.

An arctic blast is never trouble. 

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

All we need up here is a few inches of snow before we go into the dry spell, nothing would be worse than missing out on snowfall and then getting cold for a week. 

60F rain would be worse.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Cold on Friday.

Incredible. Sub freezing at PDX. 

[snow_wizard]

Juicier further north off the coast.  Maybe just maybe.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Big time. Looks like drier and colder is winning out.

Just a delicate balance between this event. But as they always say, get the cold in here first. Worry about moisture later.

[Perturbed Member]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Way south on Friday afternoon... by a long shot compared to GFS.

So the 12z UKMET and 06z ICON may have been onto something after all. The ICON ended up coming back up a bit more north for the 12z but these far south solutions seem to be a possibility now.  The EPS 06z had a fair number of members taking things way south. 

[ShawniganLake]

Seems like this airmass is going to have a little more momentum than usual. I’m feeling the suppression idea, as much as I’d love for the GFS and it’s 18” blizzard to verify in my backyard.  

[TT-SEA]

Way south on Saturday morning.

[RCola]

It's not meant to be for Seattle this go around. Just cold and dry. Hope some folks in the WV do well though. You have been waiting for something like this.

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

60F rain would be worse.  

Probably even 50. Or 40.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

An arctic blast is never trouble. 

A dry blast is boring. 1000% but it does open the door for more stuff and most people do not realize that.

[Tyler Mode]

Faster/further with the arctic air.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Way south on Saturday morning.

Jet Supression. This Arctic Front has some juice!

[Deweydog]

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

At this rate Portland might be in trouble if you believe the Euro.

Yeah, being too far north vs too far south looks like a much more likely outcome on most model guidance now.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Way south on Saturday morning.

This is incredible to see, some of these models are going to be VERY wrong.

[KingstonWX]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

All we need up here is a few inches of snow before we go into the dry spell, nothing would be worse than missing out on snowfall and then getting cold for a week. 

My pessimistic side is kinda expecting that, to be honest. Dry bitter cold for a few days, no real snow, then an overrunning event that starts as snow but eventually turns to rain. That would be my luck. 

[Perturbed Member]

We've come full circle now, several days ago the models were mostly all showing this energy heading into California. Looks like the euro wants to go back to that. 

[iFred]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

A dry blast is boring. 1000% but it does open the door for more stuff and most people do not realize that.

Makes for some beautiful evenings.

[Gummy]

Just now, KingstonWX said:

My pessimistic side is kinda expecting that, to be honest. Dry bitter cold for a few days, no real snow, then an overrunning event that starts as snow but eventually turns to rain. That would be my luck. 

That wouldn't be the worst outcome. A slow moderation with nothing to show or straight to freezing rain would also be possible.

[snow_wizard]

About as clear as mud right now how this is going to play out.  The cold for Seattle is a lock now.  Snow totally up in the air.

[OysterPrintout]

Delayed but not denied 

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Seems like this airmass is going to have a little more momentum than usual. I’m feeling the suppression idea, as much as I’d love for the GFS and it’s 18” blizzard to verify in my backyard.  

Coming back around more to the solutions from late last week. Big league air mass looking more and more likely to verify in southern BC/Alberta, parts of the PNW, the northern Rockies.

[Doinko]

Looks like this run does give Portland snow though with that low slightly later

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Big time. Looks like drier and colder is winning out.

[ShawniganLake]

Our port angeles foothill friend will probably do well when the Fraser outflow kicks in. 

[RentonHill]

Feels like there's some wrinkle out there that hasn't revealed itself yet. 

[DRG]

1 hour ago, LowerGarfield said:

Except @DRG's cabin just south of Oregon and @MWG in Medford.

@LowerGarfield  Someone down there sure thinks so...  Although, honestly if the main slug of moisture heads that far south, I'd actually expect the river to jump up into the mid 20's "height-wise", not just upper teens as they have it now.

 

 

[iFred]

Just now, KingstonWX said:

My pessimistic side is kinda expecting that, to be honest. Dry bitter cold for a few days, no real snow, then an overrunning event that starts as snow but eventually turns to rain. That would be my luck. 

Probably no over running. The air would be too dry. Expect clouds to move overnight, the virga to dispense, humidity and temps to move above freezing and then just cold rain.

Just as Satan intended.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Just now, OysterPrintout said:

Delayed but not denied 

Yes sir!!!

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Seems like this airmass is going to have a little more momentum than usual. I’m feeling the suppression idea, as much as I’d love for the GFS and it’s 18” blizzard to verify in my backyard.  

I'd be really nervous if I lived up there.  Even here it's far from a sure thing now.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, OysterPrintout said:

Delayed but not denied 

Temps are around 15 at PDX with this

[TT-SEA]

Frigid on Saturday... teens with a snow in Portland.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

About as clear as mud right now how this is going to play out.  The cold for Seattle is a lock now.  Snow totally up in the air.

We really need the front to deliver, my area is terrible with those but you will do good.  

[SnowWillarrive]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

About as clear as mud right now how this is going to play out.  The cold for Seattle is a lock now.  Snow totally up in the air.

Suppression never seems to work out for us well. Pretty much a non event with some chilly weather. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Just now, Doinko said:

Looks like this run does give Portland snow though with that low slightly later

Might be better because cold air will be deeper. Less chance for ice and more snow.