my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kids.
I'm going to step back for the day too. It's just too much uninformed nonsense.
I am excited for a lot of you guys, because it seems like this is your first time tracking a PNW winter storm. I remember my first time.
Notice the EPS keeps extending the duration of IO convection in the long range. Clear that is where the low frequency forcing is trying to establish.
The “Splitting” of the -VP anomalies is the MJO propagating eastward while the low frequency forcing (base state) remains over the IO.
Pretty rare to have ridging through June. You are young. 2015 was a rare exception that has no chance of repeating this year.
And I would probably prefer 65 and cloudy over 95 and sunny on most days. But 72 and sunny is vastly superior to both!
The 12z CMC is one way out, but it seems like that model likes to follow that exact progression every other run, no matter the weather pattern in place.
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