January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Tanis Leach]

3 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

1.25" or worse. This is gonna be incredibly dynamic. We'll get another snow day in the future. Hopefully a -10 850mb system can impact EUG. I feel like that doesn't happen as often as it used to.

Come this Thanksgiving (I believe to the day) it will be a record long. We only have had the correct pattern once (Nov 2019) for the -12 850s, but there was hardly a cold pool to bring south. .

But if statistics are anything to go by, there is a heightened chance next year (see my video in March so I can finish calculating the coorelations)

[Rubus Leucodermis]

16 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Noon at work in Port Orchard and it is 18 degrees. Been since 1990 for that to happen again.

I was just thinking that the daytime temperatures seem very 1990-ish with this one.

[SouthHillFrosty]

NAM isn’t good for Portland 

[DeepFriedEgg]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

NAM isn’t good for Portland 

Almost a feb 21 repeat

[TacomaWx]

Some light flurries here right now a few random snowflakes flying. Mostly sunny though and 22F lol

[bainbridgekid]

Good to know we aren't the only ones having awful snow busts. Chicago had a Winter Storm Warning today and the storm tracked way North from modeled and it's been basically all rain.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 minutes ago, Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone said:

I'm thinking totals for ice will over perform for us southern dwellers and snow should over perform for northern folks. 

0.5" of ice is way too low for Eugene. Euro has been calling for over an inch in its most recent solutions.

[jakerepp]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

Good to know we aren't the only ones having awful snow busts. Chicago had a Winter Storm Warning today and the storm tracked way North from modeled and it's been basically all rain.

Menawhile, in Ames IA

[North_County]

46 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Huskies will be 1-11 next year.  Brutal loss of DeBoer.  

Got one taste of an arctic front and bolted for Alabama.....

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Good to know we aren't the only ones having awful snow busts. Chicago had a Winter Storm Warning today and the storm tracked way North from modeled and it's been basically all rain.

Called the Marriot effect.

[FroYoBro]

Cold air has hit here. Down from 39 to 36.

[Phishy Wx]

17 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Yeah I think Kelso just solidified themselves as the big winner.

[Dave]

5 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Good to know we aren't the only ones having awful snow busts. Chicago had a Winter Storm Warning today and the storm tracked way North from modeled and it's been basically all rain.

Seidel is out there live in the rain right now on the weather channel. lol

[TigerWoodsLibido]

11 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

Come this Thanksgiving (I believe to the day) it will be a record long. We only have had the correct pattern once (Nov 2019) for the -12 850s, but there was hardly a cold pool to bring south. .

But if statistics are anything to go by, there is a heightened chance next year (see my video in March so I can finish calculating the coorelations)

It's lowkey depressing as fuckk. At least we've gotten a lot of snow since 2012 so no complaints on that front. But solid upper-level airmasses just don't make it here anymore. Just like our summers continue to get progressively hotter.

[SouthHillFrosty]

7 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Good to know we aren't the only ones having awful snow busts. Chicago had a Winter Storm Warning today and the storm tracked way North from modeled and it's been basically all rain.

Oh really? Mossman used his powers on the wrong storm to trend north

[TigerWoodsLibido]

53 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Huskies will be 1-11 next year.  Brutal loss of DeBoer.  

Ty Willingham and Jimmy Lake are available!

Gonna be a mid-2000s feel for the UW football progrum. At least 2008's glorious 0-12 was followed by a legendary PNW regional snow event.

[Dave]

A reminder to anyone living in the south valley: Do NOT park your car under a tree. Also, anything else you don't want squished should probably be in the clear.

[Winterdog]

21 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Pete Carroll will be the new head coach for the Huskies!

What happened to Deboers?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Dave said:

A reminder to anyone living in the south valley: Do NOT park your car under a tree. Also, anything else you don't want squished should probably be in the clear.

I already had my mother in law pull her car all the way into the carport. Dumbass neighbor's tree overhangs the driveway badly. Should be illegal.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Winterdog said:

What happened to Deboers?

Left for a better job (Bama).

Gonna be interesting to see if he fails there like Taggart and Cristobal in the state of Florida. The tropical cyclones must be problematic for them or something.

[MossMan]

Currently 17.8 degrees 

DP at 3

The Everett car bumper snowballs are still in great shape at this temp! 
Oh and if you listened to my short video I posted of the coyote talking this morning, my neighbor sent me this video right afterwards and said it was looking down at our property while talking. 

[Sandy rocks]

I have never seen the models fluctuate so much. One minute we have snow, oh wait that's ice, We have snow then it's gone. I could see a fews days before but not as it's occurring. I understand that things are in flux but this is ridiculous.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

What happened to Deboers?

Became a traitor east coaster like Phil. 

[Winterdog]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Left for a better job (Bama)

I thought he would be moving on

[Dave]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I already had my mother in law pull her car all the way into the carport. dumba** neighbor's tree overhangs the driveway badly. Should be illegal.

In the last big ice storm, my next door neighbor had a large limb from a tall Doug Fir crash through his truck's windshield. He has since removed the offending tree. Ice storms are no joke.

[Phishy Wx]

up to 1 above.  Boooooooooooo

 

DP is -13

[DeepFriedEgg]

The NWS forecast is gonna bust again. Shocker.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, Dave said:

In the last big ice storm, my next door neighbor had a large limb from a tall Doug Fir crash through his truck's windshield. He has since removed the offending tree. Ice storms are no joke.

When was the last ice storm to drop an inch or more? Last time I can think of one down here was like Dec 2016? Good lord over 7 years of tree limb growth.

Godspeed...

[Frontal Snowsquall]

30 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

NAM wants a lot of sleet, I dont buy it. This would be a good snowstorm imo.

Hard to trust the NAM when it shows cold rain tomorrow morning. It’s being too aggressive with the warm tongue. I’m confident we’ll see higher snow totals.

 

[Dave]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

When was the last ice storm to drop an inch or more? Last time I can think of one down here was like Dec 2016? Good lord over 7 years of tree limb growth.

Godspeed...

I get them all mixed up as well. I try not to remember them too much. Dec 2016 was probably it, but we've had at least a couple since then. I believe we had one last year that was super slick but didn't get thick enough to cause damage. Maybe a .33 accumulation.

[TacomaWx]

I thought this was amazing. You can see the clouds scattering out ahead of the outflow winds spilling across the ocean. Also a sneak peek preview of tomorrow’s event! 

[DeepFriedEgg]

Just a steady shift north every run. Longview will be the bullseye without a question. Wouldn’t be surprised if OLM gets 2 inches.

[Meatyorologist]

18F and partly sunny here at pm. No snowcover. For a backdoor blast this is ungodly. I have never seen in my 22 years a low level airmass this powerful in the Seattle area. This is what the greats were like. Pretty cool to live through one!

Now, to see if KSEA can drop into the single digits

[Ken in Wood Village]

I really hate being right I told people about the possibility of flash freezing and wouldn't you know it, the NWS issues this special weather statement  

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Portland OR
1111 AM PST Fri Jan 12 2024

ORZ001-003-005-006-015-016-WAZ019>022-039-040-045-046-130600-
North Oregon Coast-Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-Lower Columbia-
Greater Portland Metro Area-Western Columbia River Gorge-
Central Columbia River Gorge-South Washington Cascades-
Willapa Hills-South Washington Coast-I-
5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-Greater Vancouver Area-
South Washington Cascade Foothills-
Including the cities of Astoria, Cannon Beach, Tillamook,
Netarts, Pacific City, Vernonia, Jewell, Sunset Summit,
Lees Camp, Trask, St. Helens, Clatskanie, Hillsboro, Portland,
Wilsonville, Oregon City, Gresham, Troutdale, Corbett,
Rooster Rock, Multnomah Falls, Cascade Locks, Hood River,
Coldwater Ridge Visitors Center, Mount St. Helens,
Wind River Valley, Willapa, Frances, Elk Mountain, Ryderwood,
Raymond, Long Beach, Ocean Park, Naselle, Cathlamet,
Cape Disappointment, Longview, Kelso, Castle Rock, Vancouver,
Battle Ground, Ridgefield, Washougal, Yacolt, Amboy, Toutle,
Ariel, Lake Merwin, Yale Lake, Cougar, North Bonneville,
Stevenson, Carson, and Underwood
1111 AM PST Fri Jan 12 2024

...AREAS OF BLACK ICE COULD IMPACT THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE DUE
TO A FLASH FREEZE...

At 11 AM PST Friday, temperatures were rapidly dropping across
southwest Washington and far northwest Oregon, including the
Portland/Vancouver metro, Columbia River Gorge, north Oregon
coast, and north Oregon Coast Range. In fact, many locations
within the aforementioned areas were already below freezing at 11
AM Friday. An arctic cold front dropping from the north, combined
with cold easterly winds developing in the Columbia River Gorge,
will result in rapidly cooling temperatures through Friday
afternoon and evening. By approximately 3 PM PST Friday,
temperatures should be in the 20s. Given the wet road conditions
leading up to the flash freeze, areas of black ice are a concern.
As such, slippery road conditions could impact the Friday evening
commute, prior to the arrival of a winter storm set to impact
southwest Washington and northwest Oregon Friday night through
Saturday night. Sidewalks and other surface may also become icy.

 

Now, I'll tell you something. When we had the big snowstorm on January 10th, 2017. The forecast was for rain and snow mix during the day. But we just had snow showers during the day. I told all my friends and family I know (via Facebook) to be home because we were going to have a big snowstorm. Guess what happened...lol. 

The morel of the story is, look what's happening outside. We have been having snow showers this afternoon. What do you think may happen when we see a lot more moisture? Temperatures are falling fast, get to where you need to be and just watch what unfolds. 🌨

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

18F and partly sunny here at pm. No snowcover. For a backdoor blast this is ungodly. I have never seen in my 22 years a low level airmass this powerful in the Seattle area. This is what the greats were like. Pretty cool to live through one!

Now, to see if KSEA can drop into the single digits

Now just imagine heavy snow falling in the mid teens with a north wind gusting over 60. 

[Snownerd3000]

11 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Left for a better job (Bama).

Gonna be interesting to see if he fails there like Taggart and Cristobal in the state of Florida. The tropical cyclones must be problematic for them or something.

I hope he chokes under the pressure and is ousted within 2 years.  

 

[SpaceRace22]

The 18z ICON already has precip dramatically further north at hour 24. TBD how this works out as far as the snow to sleet ratio in Portland.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Icon has a small shift north, precip a bit further north

[Rubus Leucodermis]

First -40 at Tatlayoko Lake since December 30th, 1968 this morning.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, SpaceRace22 said:

The 18z ICON already has precip dramatically further north at hour 24. TBD how this works out as far as the snow to sleet ratio in Portland.

Portland will be a winter wonder land.