January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Randyc321]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

only 18 here in port orchard. Coldest this time a day since 1990. Amazing air mass that is still working its way to you.

Only 18 here too.  Don't remember it being this cold at  almost 2 pm before.  I have only been here since 2005 though.

[Cold Snap]

Was going to head up to our house by the gorge today but I checked the cams and the roads still look pretty icy and there’s been some spin outs so we decided not to take the chance.

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

I'm supposedly screwed for snow. And I hope to have a lot of sleet over a lot of ZR. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Of course the focus is on the upcoming event, but looking ahead a bit, next week has a lot of uncertainty.  We all see the EPS or the GEFS, but that is an average and not necessarily an actual solution.

NWS Spokane has a good graph illustrating the possibilities and the uncertainty.  Keep in mind they of course forecast for Eastern WA and North Idaho, but the illustration is still helpful.

[Doinko]

GFS shows some pretty insane snowfall rates tomorrow, along with 50mph gusts in places

[the_convergence_zone]

Seeing some flurries in Seattle now as well, likely "sound effect" which I can only recall happening once or twice before. 

[MikeInEverett]

16 minutes ago, Sandy rocks said:

If Portland area gets sleet, I just want it gone. I would rather it warm up than have that slop. This whole thing has been so disappointing. It changes from one minute to the next you don't know what to believe. Ice always seems to be Portland's default any more. There isn't even much snow today, just tiny little flakes. Onto spring as far as I am concerned.

“Onto spring as far as I am concerned.” Is a top tier line.

[Deweydog]

GFS almost throws Olympia a bone.

[Olive1010]

1 minute ago, Doinko said:

GFS shows some pretty insane snowfall rates tomorrow, along with 50mph gusts in places

Decent heavy snow north of Portland 

[GHweatherChris]

Tomorrow is gonna be fun, for now.... tempered expectations.....

[Deweydog]

Kelso’s WWA MAY verify.

[SpaceRace22]

GFS has PDX at 9 degrees with heavy snow tomorrow at 5pm. My goodness.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Wow the GFS shifted north again. Two more shifts and Tacoma is in play. Doubt it tho. Portland is a heavy favorite!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That was a large move north with the precip on the gfs.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Tomorrow is gonna be fun, for now.... tempered expectations.....

Seriously... its coming.   For you and a bunch of people south of the King County line.

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Seriously... its coming.   For you and a bunch of people south of the King County line.

* or within five miles of the king county border

[TacomaWx]

Can’t say I’ve seen this before. I’d imagine it’s going to build up a lot on the beaches by tomorrow!

[SpaceRace22]

[Meatyorologist]

Seattle could pull off its first sub 20F high in 34 years if high clouds are thick enough on Saturday.

[Perturbed Member]

GFS trend isn't too good for PDX in terms of precip amount. I guess it is just coming in line with the Euro here. 

The last 8 runs:

[Mid Valley Duck]

18 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Yes absolutely. I could be wrong on this assumption, but I get the vibe that at least some of the models are pretty much built to calculate precip as either 100% sleet or 100% snow at any given moment and are struggling with the super borderline situation here where there may be *some* sleet, but not all sleet. These soundings do not seem like an atmosphere that is going to 100% melt all precipitation in that warm layer.

That's a good point. Here are some cross sections of various models for Hillsboro. NAM clearly the most aggressive with the warm nose. But the Euro, GFS, HRRR and Canadian models look like mostly or all snow.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

It’s cold enough for squeaky snow. But too cold that I can’t make a snowball. My puppy is happy!

[Olive1010]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

That's a good point. Here are some cross sections of various models for Hillsboro. NAM clearly the most aggressive with the warm nose. But the Euro, GFS, HRRR and Canadian models look like mostly or all snow.

That’s just basically me and Doinko is close 

[MossMan]

Sure hope we don’t have any scud clouds or wind that could screw up maximizing how low we go tonight!! 

[Deweydog]

Column is actually a bit cooler on the 18z compared to at least the 00z last night. Nice to see that bleeding has at least stopped for now.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

GFS has PDX at 9 degrees with heavy snow tomorrow at 5pm. My goofus.

FTFY.

[T-Town]

10 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wow the GFS shifted north again. Two more shifts and Tacoma is in play. Doubt it tho. Portland is a heavy favorite!

LFG!!!

[T-Town]

10 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Can’t say I’ve seen this before. I’d imagine it’s going to build up a lot on the beaches by tomorrow!

Dukes?

[MikeInEverett]

Something interesting:

If you ever watched the “weatherscan” channel back in the 2000s, some people have a project where they made an online emulator that you can load up anytime on desktop. If you go to weatherscan.net on desktop, it should load up an emulator with that classic jazz music it would play back in the day.

Here’s a picture of it I took the other day:

[Meatyorologist]

GFS continuing to cave to the Wednesday system

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Still zero in omak. Amazing.

[Deweydog]

Tuesday night is looking… messy.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Still zero in omak. Amazing.

At least they’re out of debt.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

At least they’re out of debt.

They were colder AT 10am.

[OysterPrintout]

Every sleet sounding I look at is just razor's edge in PDX.

[Perturbed Member]

8 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

That's a good point. Here are some cross sections of various models for Hillsboro. NAM clearly the most aggressive with the warm nose. But the Euro, GFS, HRRR and Canadian models look like mostly or all snow.

That is pretty encouraging, at least near HIO that would suggest pretty much all snow. I'm west of HIO so I would expect to do fine. 

How do these look for SLE or PDX? It looks like the Euro mostly spares WA county but does try to warm nose PDX for a bit. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Tuesday night is looking… messy.

Gfs really caved to a possible snowy solution for some areas. Next week will look much different in the model world than it does now.

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

At least they’re out of debt.

KSEA still pocketing twenty measly bucks

[Rubus Leucodermis]

16.3˚F at 2 in the afternoon.I see BLI briefly crept up to 10˚F earlier, so no single-digit high for them.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Flurry storm has started