January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Haha wow. I tell you. Whining works!

Been working great for me since the November 2006 miracle…Been using the technique ever since

[Phishy Wx]

I think we’re about get hammered with high ratio snow.  Has potential to be a big one for sure.  Looks like I got down to -2 IMBY last night.  4 nights in a row below 0

[Kayla]

6 minutes ago, crf450ish said:

Have you ventured into town during this cold snap? If so, have you seen any trucks left running in parking lots? Just curious if that's still a thing. 

Oh yes. Most cars are kept running in the grocery parking lots during these cold snaps.

[ShawniganLake]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just keeps going into Thursday.

Environment Canada is buying into a second push of cold air into the lower Fraser later Wednesday, with highs dropping back into the the upper 20s on Thursday.  

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEM still going the freezing rain route with snow to the north... but did shift a little south from its 00Z run.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Stat of the day. 3 consecutive days with sub-20 lows at SLE for the first time since December 2013. If they get another one tomorrow morning it will be their longest streak of sub-20 minima since December 2009. Even more shocking... This is the first time since 1980 they have had more than 2 consecutive sub 20 lows in January... 

[Skagit Weather]

Is this actually going to happen? I'm becoming more optimistic, but I not going to believe it until I see the pepto of the Euro's eyes.

[MossMan]

How are lows looking for tonight? 

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Skagit Weather said:

Is this actually going to happen? I'm becoming more optimistic, but I not going to believe it until I see the pepto of the Euro's eyes.

The nervous 2hr wait begins! 

Edited January 15 by MossMan

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice clear skies this morning. 17.8 at the moment. 

[FroYoBro]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GEM still going the freezing rain route with snow to the north... but did shift a little south from its 00Z run.  

What does the GFS show for freezing rain down here?

[TT-SEA]

Just now, FroYoBro said:

What does the GFS show for freezing rain down here?

Everyone eventually gets crushed by freezing rain per GFS... even the northern areas that are buried in snow on Wednesday and Thursday get it on Friday.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Hear me out here, I don't think we're in for a big warm up YET. that low is going to track further east and south, which will give us more cold air from BC and Alberta. The willamette valley will have freezing rain for a bit but then it will convert to snow, and the cold north winds will continue. December 2008 everyone was almost 100% sure it was going to warm up, and it didn't. It could happen again...

 

I'm probably going to be extremely wrong but one can dream.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS and 12Z GEM both just bury SW BC.   

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Nearly regionwide! I miss on the icy fun.

 

[Winterdog]

42 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Much more frosty this morning. 
Currently 18.8.

Low so far is 18.1

Kicked yer butt with a low of 12.3, Arlington had a low of 10.  No wind here at all.  Currently 12.3

[LowerGarfield]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Nearly regionwide! I miss on the icy fun.

 

Can we blame @icyasf?

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Low of 0 degrees and it's currently up to 2, with no wind. Snow depth of 29".

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS and 12Z GEM both just bury SW BC.   

They do. Alas they are not backed up by the Euro or the NAM 3km on that.

I am wondering what HRDPS will have to say when it finishes. If both it and NAM 3km fail to back up the snowier long-term models, I will write the latter off as out to lunch again.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I hope I have 33 degree rain, not 32 degree rain.

[the_convergence_zone]

Nearly 4 straight days below freezing in Seattle should come to an end this afternoon.

That ice event doesn’t look like a big deal for Seattle fortunately although I’ll avoid the roads on Tuesday evening. Getting up close to 40 on Tuesday afternoon will help. Seems to be one where it could be trouble in the favored areas but the I-5 corridor south of Mt Vernon should be all rain by Wednesday morning and once it switches over it isn’t switching back. 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

They do. Alas they are not backed up by the Euro or the NAM 3km on that.

I am wondering what HRDPS will have to say when it finishes. If both it and NAM 3km fail to back up the snowier long-term models, I will write the latter off as out to lunch again.

And then you have the 06Z EPS mean which actually shifted slightly north from the 00Z run.    But still gives SW BC snow.  

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Nearly 4 straight days below freezing in Seattle should come to an end this afternoon.

That ice event doesn’t look like a big deal for Seattle fortunately although I’ll avoid the roads on Tuesday evening. Getting up close to 40 on Tuesday afternoon will help. Seems to be one where it could be trouble in the favored areas but the I-5 corridor south of Mt Vernon should be all rain by Wednesday morning and once it switches over it isn’t switching back. 

I was remembering the 2012 ice event... it started raining here when it was 18 degrees.    That is a recipe for disaster.   

I can't remember a 40-degree day (which it should be tomorrow) turning into a major ice event later the same day.   But maybe there is a first for everything!  

[Blizzard777]

Currently 17* and that is my low for the day.  
Southend will bubble up quickly unless that low sinks south. We lack the necessary means to keep the cold air here….Sad Panda.  
In the same I never trust nature as she’s surprised me to many times before….even this locations that gives up the ghost easily. 


 

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And then you have the 06Z EPS mean which actually shifted slightly north from the 00Z run.    But still gives SW BC snow.  

You got an EPS Kuchera?  Probably more accurate for us on the east side with snow coming with temps in the teens/lower 20s

[BLI snowman]

Cleared out and plummeted. Hit 13 here for my lowest of the event.

[MossMan]

Memories! 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

You got an EPS Kuchera?  Probably more accurate for us on the east side with snow coming with temps in the teens/lower 20s

They don't have a Kuchera map for the EPS. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Overnight low of 16.0˚F IMBY. The slow warm-up continues.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like The Dalles has officially hit a 0-burger. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Memories! 

Remember when arctic blasts came with snow, as all good arctic blasts should? Pepperidge Farm remembers.

[Skagit Weather]

12z 4km GFS-WRF had about a 10-15 mile shift south from the 00z, but still shows snow basically only Whatcom County north despite the more favorable GFS.

[Phishy Wx]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

They don't have a Kuchera map for the EPS. 

ok i'll add about 25% ish to the 10:1 

[Gummy]

Haha GFS at it again. My MSN weather app took the bait, getting 1-2 inches of fantasy snow now.

[MossMan]

Just now, Skagit Weather said:

12z 4km GFS-WRF had about a 10-15 mile shift south from the 00z, but still shows snow basically only Whatcom County north despite the more favorable GFS.

Basically all of the small tweaks since last evening have been favorable tweaks and we are so incredibly close to being in business…Let’s keep this momentum going over the next day! 
And one thing is for sure…The ground will definitely NOT be too warm, even if we get into the upper 30’s for a day or two, if we do get snow it should be immediate stickage! 

[Phishy Wx]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

40 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Everyone eventually gets crushed by freezing rain per GFS... even the northern areas that are buried in snow on Wednesday and Thursday get it on Friday.

The 12z GFS trended way colder for down here. Ice arrives just before sunset tomorrow and continues through the morning. The 06z GFS had PDX at 41 Wed 10am, now the 12z shows 27 with ice still. The models always are too aggressive with scouring out the cold air down here and it looks like they are getting a better handle of the low level cold air. If there is an east wind, PDX will not thaw out.

[Blizzard777]

Impressed by this cold airmass and it stands alone in its own way for me. Passive arctic front here but the bite of cold unreal from the event! 

11th 43/27 ………dp 32/12 (note: 6:15pm officials 32*)

12th  27/15.6 … dp 14/-4

13th. 22/12.7…..dp 0/-8

14th. 31/13………dp 9/0 

15th 38/17……….dp 8/1  (temp rose above 32 at 12:30pm)

90.5 hours below 32* for event 

[GobBluth]

3 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

The 12z GFS trended way colder for down here. Ice arrives just before sunset tomorrow and continues through the morning. The 06z GFS had PDX at 41 Wed 10am, now the 12z shows 27 with ice still. The models always are too aggressive with scouring out the cold air down here and it looks like they are getting a better handle of the low level cold air. If there is an east wind, PDX will not thaw out.

If we're using 2004 as an event analog then the gfs persistent cold pool idea fits.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12Z HRDPS has finished and it covers the start of the Wednesday event. Looks snowy for me.