January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[Phishy Wx]

13 minutes ago, Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone said:

Awesome looking sky to the southwest. love the contrast of dark clouds with snow on ground 

It's Coming!

[Slushy Inch]

Druncle 

[Phil]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Last five: 2016, 2010, 2007, 2005, 1998.

Seem like a pretty mixed bag overall, though I can see why you haven't enjoyed most of them. Second or third year Ninas tend to be the worst (hottest) here.

If we had descending easterly QBO like in 2007 or 1998 it would be a more tolerable outcome. But transitioning to La Niña with descending +QBO is consistently Venus-like. 2016, 2010, 1995, 1988, etc. All of the most brutal analogs are in that list.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

If we had descending easterly QBO like in 2007 or 1998 it would be a more tolerable outcome. But transitioning to La Niña with descending +QBO is consistently Venus-like. 2016, 2010, 1995, 1988, etc. All of the most brutal analogs are in that list.

The good news is all of those following winters turned out well in the PNW!

[Front Ranger]

9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

PDX holding at 26 on the hour.

26 here as well. Temperatures should peak for the day in the next hour or so.

Coldest 4 day stretch for PDX since Dec 1998, it would appear.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Coldest 4 day stretch for PDX since Dec 1998, it would appear.

Guess we can throw out the 1957-58 and 1991-92 analogs!

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

I can now confirm ZR storm has started. Coming down at a pretty good clip. 

[umadbro]

I’m struggling to see the warm up happening that forecasters are so confident in. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Is that word from outerspace?

[KingstonWX]

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Druncle 

Yes please. 

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Lol we just had a historic blast Phillip. You said it wasn’t coming and it came so I don’t believe you. 

LR forecasting is hard! I screw up sometimes. And you guys always remind me about it when I do.  

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Spatiotemporal essentially means with respect to space and time.

Temporal is with respect to time only.

[Deweydog]

GFS still instant that the basin gets a little reinvigoration and ice returns for Thursday night…

[BLI snowman]

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think if anything js going to happen up there in February it’ll have to be late in the month (especially with the PV restrengthening).

Forcing from the MJO and El Niño spatiotemporally align from 1/25 to 2/15. I’d expect a strong niño pattern to establish at the beginning of that window (nationwide torch centered in Midwest/Plains) followed by a westward retrogression of the ridge into a +TNH/+PNA type pattern. After that, I’m not sure yet.

Early February it is. 

[Phishy Wx]

8 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Druncle 

I'll take a slice of Kuchera please and thanks

[rsktkr]

Looks like this ice storm might be slightly pulling apart as it moves inland.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Deweydog said:

GFS still instant that the basin gets a little reinvigoration and ice returns for Thursday night…

If it ever actually departs. 

[Phil]

16 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Already looks like that pattern is establishing by day 7.

Yep, multi week thaw coming for all of us. But Tahoe should do well. Similar to the pattern last January in many ways. 

[Dave]

Coming down much heavier now. 27 degrees. There are puddles of water on top of the ice that hasn't frozen yet. Fukkkkk.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

LR forecasting is hard! I screw up sometimes. And you guys always remind me about it when I do.  

One of the reasons I pretty much stopped making seasonal forecasts after my success of 2019-2021

[BLI snowman]

Just now, Deweydog said:

GFS still instant that the basin gets a little reinvigoration and ice returns for Thursday night…

Yeah, now that's a head scratcher in terms of analogs. ZR to rain to ZR. It's not unheard of to see a little resurgence through the gorge after a low evacuates (1/19/2012) but I can't think of any examples where surface advection was strong enough to get PDX back below 32 and into ZR without more appreciable upper level reinforcement. 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If it ever actually departs. 

Not likely near the gorge, but the low level air mass deepens somewhat after shallowing/retreating for about 36 hours.

[Meatyorologist]

17 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It almost made Tim leave!

And Summer 2019 was still by many respects a warmer than normal Summer. Especially after July.

[Deweydog]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, now that's a head scratcher in terms of analogs. ZR to rain to ZR. It's not unheard of to see a little resurgence through the gorge after a low evacuates (1/19/2012) but I can't think of any examples where surface advection was strong enough to get PDX back below 32 and into ZR without more appreciable upper level reinforcement. 

Pretty weird. Seems that in the GFS’s opinion just enough of a reinforcement from the clipper gets sucked into the gorge.

[Phil]

29 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

2010 was one of the last truly nice summers we had around here. Strong Nino to Nina transition. 

No doubt you guys are long overdue for a troughy summer. Has to happen eventually.

And we’re equally overdue for a ridgy, boring summer after years of epic severe seasons.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

20 minutes ago, Lars43 said:

Sitting at 24, rain has started. It’s an absolute glacier. 

 

Looks like a skating rink!  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Looks like a skating rink!  

is that the road??

[icyasf]

9 minutes ago, Dave said:

Coming down much heavier now. 27 degrees. There are puddles of water on top of the ice that haven't frozen yet. Fukkkkk.

There is also puddles in Corvallis. I cannot tell if this means it’s starting to melt or if this is a bad thing.

[Phil]

If the Indian Ocean starts torching like crazy in April/May it’ll tell us a lot about where 2024 is heading.

[TT-SEA]

23 minutes ago, Lars43 said:

Sitting at 24, rain has started. It’s an absolute glacier. 

 

Looks just like what we had last December here.   12 hours of sleet and then freezing rain.   Absolutely impenetrable surface.   Never seen anything like it.   And literally could not stand on it without falling down.

[Dave]

2 minutes ago, icyasf said:

There is also puddles in Corvallis. I cannot tell if this means it’s starting to melt or if this is a bad thing.

It's not ideal. Still way too cool for melting. It will freeze solid eventually. It's just that the precip rate is too high to instantly freeze. Buckle up. This might get shitttty.

[BLI snowman]

22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Guess we can throw out the 1957-58 and 1991-92 analogs!

Regional duds are a product of a bygone climate era. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

is that the road??

I think so. The ice on top of the snow/sleet is making things look shiny.

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks just like what we had last December here.   12 hours of sleet and then freezing rain.   Absolutely impenetrable surface.   Never seen anything like it.   And literally could not stand on it without falling down.

I had that overnight once on top of sleet and snow.  woke and my car had slid out of the driveway and was in the cul-de-sac the next morning.  at first we thought it was stolen

[bainbridgekid]

29 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Druncle 

FYI that snow South of Everett falls during the day on Thursday.

[Dave]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks just like what we had last December here.   12 hours of sleet and then freezing rain.   Absolutely impenetrable surface.   Never seen anything like it.   And literally could not stand on it without falling down.

As much as I hate ice, it sure can be pretty.

[Andstorm]

20 minutes ago, rsktkr said:

Looks like this ice storm might be slightly pulling apart as it moves inland.

Likely effect of the super dry air mass 

[Ken in Wood Village]

Such pretty colors 🌨

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Absolutely pouring freezing rain. We have a few degrees to go yet. Gonna be really bad.

[Phishy Wx]

ice sucks asssss unless its like a frozen lake or waterfall or you're using it to make a cocktail