January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[RentonHill]

30.8 and raining

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

If it isn't freezing on contact, is it freezing rain?  Freezing after precip stops does not count.

Yes, if it freezes it is freezing rain. Sometimes happens faster than others, also depends on surfaces. 

[smerfylicious]

It's lightly snowing in Skykomish and Index...the snow line is about at Zeke's Drive In...as per usual

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

It’s kind of beautiful. However, ice is on my bad side right now because I slipped and landed right on my kneecap yesterday and I have a bad feeling I may have to visit a doctor soon.. 

Bummer.  This stuff can be dangerous.

[TT-SEA]

Every model has shifted south this evening.    I think this is because the low is even weaker than originally projected. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

28 now at SLE. I hope they can stay below freezing through midnight, but we'll see. Either way this was a great stretch. 

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seen it many times. Very very shallow warm layer. ZR is super cooled water that freezes on contact. It's below freezing, but hasn't become solid yet because it is falling through such a shallow layer. In Chris's situation it's 31 at the surface, but that drop hitting the ground is above freezing. 

You don’t need supercooled drops for ZR. In fact you technically don’t even need subfreezing air temperatures temps if the ground is cold enough.

We had a deep freeze in Jan 2018 and after an overnight low of 3°F it warmed into the mid-30s and started raining. Coated everything in ice because most surfaces were far below freezing.

[Slushy Inch]

26 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

ME ME ME ME ME. what a chode

What did Cliff call him previously? An amateur?

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Yes, if it freezes it is freezing rain. Sometimes happens faster than others, also depends on surfaces. 

It's not freezing on any surface, and if it freezes after the precip is done it's not freezing rain, it's just ice.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Even though Cliff and Tim do not think this will be an event at all…I still staged my plow!

One of these has you in the blue, and the other has you in the pepto, right?

[Hawksfan2008]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

You don’t need supercooled drops for ZR. In fact you technically don’t even need subfreezing air temperatures temps if the ground is cold enough.

We had a deep freeze in Jan 2018 and after an overnight low of 3°F it warmed into the mid-30s and started raining. Coated everything in ice because most surfaces were far below freezing.

Okay well than the opposite can be true. I'm just saying I've seen it rain many times at 31-32 and there is no ice forming. 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Every model has shifted south this evening.    I think this is because the low is even weaker than originally projected. 

We are on the bubble here.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

43 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

My brother and sister in-law got an early start today and left Vancouver, WA at 8am or so which is amazing for them since they have two young children and are extreme night owls. They left to beat the ice storm warning. Can't imagine them driving in that now. Got here about 3 hours ago with generally good conditions.

Glad they got there safely!

[bainbridgekid]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yes, if it freezes it is freezing rain. Sometimes happens faster than others, also depends on surfaces. 

I've seen a LOT of frozen puddles so apparently I've had freezing rain a lot more often than I thought! 

[WhoNeedsAC]

Looks like the main rain band is already through, just showers on the radar now. No power out for days icing so far, thank goodness.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Okay well than the opposite can be true. I'm just saying I've seen it rain many times at 31-32 and there is no ice forming. 

With saturated air that can happen.  31 usually makes ice no matter what though.

[KingstonWX]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Every model has shifted south this evening.    I think this is because the low is even weaker than originally projected. 

You insisted this was not going to happen. We willed it into reality. Please give credit where due. 

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

I've seen a LOT of frozen puddles so apparently I've had freezing rain a lot more often than I thought! 

I have 3 of those currently lol

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Every model has shifted south this evening.    I think this is because the low is even weaker than originally projected. 

JAYA Said the southern low looked stronger and more spun up than modeled. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

If we had 4-8 inches of snow on the ground, this would have been a nice snowstorm rn

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, KingstonWX said:

You insisted this was not going to happen. We willed it into reality. Please give credit where due. 

I didn't insist anything.   I think it was Randy's reverse psychology that did the trick!  

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

JAYA Said the southern low looked stronger and more spun up than modeled. 

It's tighter and thus less likely to go north. Like the low for OR this weekend, right? 

[Winterdog]

Just appeared on my phone.  Not gonna happen

[Hawksfan2008]

27.9 degrees. We’re really gonna do this two years in a row out here. Insane NWS Seattle fails to address micro climates. We had the same advisory as Seattle  

[TT-SEA]

Precip is much lighter here than the radar would suggest.   East wind is still pretty strong so assume that is the reason.  

[awright-31]

Sounds like the roads in Thurston Co are starting to become an ice rink.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

If it isn't freezing on contact, is it freezing rain?  Freezing after precip stops does not count.

It might not freeze instantly, but standing water will always freeze in a subfreezing environment. If it’s not freezing *at all* (esp on metallic surfaces such as railings, etc) then it’s not below freezing to begin with, and your thermometer is likely running cold.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

1 minute ago, luvssnow_spokane said:

GREAT READ: With Puget Sound Energy’s (PSE) recent debacle, Cliff Mass, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington, takes climate zealots to task in a blog post titled: The Cold Truth About Renewable Energy in the Pacific Northwest.

https://x.com/wagop/status/1747383497302622434?s=46&t=dIP_tfaU13ExwPgv5KMjSw

This looks politics adjacent considering the source of the Tweet. I don't care that Mass is a weather expert when he is getting political. Perhaps a different thread? Thanks.

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Precip is much lighter here than the radar would suggest.   East wind is still pretty strong so assume that is the reason.  

Sleet happening now?

[TacomaWx]

32 here now. 31 at Tacoma narrows. 

[Hawksfan2008]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Precip is much lighter here than the radar would suggest.   East wind is still pretty strong so assume that is the reason.  

Amazing how different you and I can be. Coming down good here. Already a solid coating. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

Sleet happening now?

Hearing pings on the window now... must be.   That would be very good.

[KingstonWX]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I didn't insist anything.   I think it was Randy's reverse psychology that did the trick!  

Darn you kids and your semantics!

[Front Ranger]

9 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I've seen a LOT of frozen puddles so apparently I've had freezing rain a lot more often than I thought! 

1.5 hours. That's the official amount of time it has to freeze to qualify. 

Look it up.

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Okay well than the opposite can be true. I'm just saying I've seen it rain many times at 31-32 and there is no ice forming. 

If surfaces and air temps are both marginally below freezing, then yes it will take longer given latent heat release during the freezing process. But it will still freeze.

You’ll see a lot of dripping from the trees/etc in such conditions but if it’s below freezing there will be some glazing under the liquid water.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Hawksfan2008 said:

Amazing how different you and I can be. Coming down good here. Already a solid coating. 

I have seen that before when its raining harder as I go down the hill.    Usually when we are right on the cusp of snow and its falling lightly and then drive down the hill and its pouring rain.  

[North_County]

21 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said: