January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Sitting at 30 degrees and about 2" of frozen precip.  After the snow I reported last night, it switched to freezing rain, so we have a nice base of ice under all of this.  It is currently some sort of snow/sleet mix that we are getting, probably 70% snow, 30% sleet.

So the models going with dramatically lower (compared to the rest of the county) totals in the Bellingham area are probably going to verify, then. You still should end up with around 4" total.

[TT-SEA]

New 12Z runs all initialized the low moving across the north side of the Olympics this morning and disappearing as it heads into the Cascades so that explains the tangible weather across the area.   In terms of model performance this is right where the ECMWF has been showing it for a couple days now.  

[Phishy Wx]

Per Spokane NWS:  first wave wasn't as intense.  second wave still on track for 1"/hour rates later. looks like we have about 1.5" on the ground so far IMBY.

High resolution models have backed off 
on the snow this morning

 

The second wave is still set to move through this afternoon as the 
upper level shortwave trough associated with northern branch drops 
down out of BC. This shortwave will pack a more potent vorticity 
maximum with it, along with better divergence ahead of the trough at 
upper levels (i.e. stronger dynamics aloft). This coupled with 
strong moist isentropic ascent, and we should see a much better 
potential for higher intensity snowfall rates. The HREF model 
guidance indicates a 30-50% chance for 1 in/hr across the 
Spokane/Coeur d'Alene metro area between 1-4 PM in the afternoon.

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

New 12Z runs all initialized the low moving across the north side of the Olympics this morning and disappearing as it heads into the Cascades so that explains the tangible weather across the area.   In terms of model performance this is right where the ECMWF has been showing it for a couple days now.  

Yep. Raining here with a temp up to 32.9. Truly the worst way to end this cold event. Wow. 

[MossMan]

Well back to regularly scheduled programming…

Here is the Fuzz. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

7 hours ago, Phil said:

I’m not an imaginative guy. But I’ll give it my best shot.

The salty smell in the air, the comfort food, the laid back culture, the huge live oaks covered in Spanish moss, the pitch black nights with lightning over the horizon, the sounds of the insects. IDK man, there’s something about it that has permanently won my heart.

That actually sums it up pretty good.  2 things I miss about summers in the south.  The symphony of sounds coming from the woods (they call them "woods" there, not "forests") and fireflies.  3 things....nighttime thunderstorm in the distance.  Maybe just close enough that you hear the occasional faint rumble of thunder.

A good thunderstorm in close proximity is nice too, but for setting a chill mood, those 3 things right there.

 

My wife is a die hard PNW girl, but her first time going to the Georgia coast, she wanted to pick up and move immediately.  I had to reminder her that we would not be living in a beachfront house but would instead be living along swamp land inland, and she dialed back her enthusiasm a bit.  Plus she has a very pale complexion, so she absolutely fries in the sun down there.

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, Chewbacca Defense said:

That actually sums it up pretty good.  2 things I miss about summers in the south.  The symphony of sounds coming from the woods (they call them "woods" there, not "forests") and fireflies.  3 things....nighttime thunderstorm in the distance.  Maybe just close enough that you hear the occasional faint rumble of thunder.

A good thunderstorm in close proximity is nice too, but for setting a chill mood, those 3 things right there.

 

My wife is a die hard PNW girl, but her first time going to the Georgia coast, she wanted to pick up and move immediately.  I had to reminder her that we would not be living in a beachfront house but would instead be living along swamp land inland, and she dialed back her enthusiasm a bit.  Plus she has a very pale complexion, so she absolutely fries in the sun down there.

similar, as growing up in coastal SC.  I miss the warm water beaches and some of the food, my family, close friends, huge Thunderstorms and Tropical Cyclones.  I don't miss Humidity, at all.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

That actually sums it up pretty good.  2 things I miss about summers in the south.  The symphony of sounds coming from the woods (they call them "woods" there, not "forests") and fireflies.  3 things....nighttime thunderstorm in the distance.  Maybe just close enough that you hear the occasional faint rumble of thunder.

A good thunderstorm in close proximity is nice too, but for setting a chill mood, those 3 things right there.

My wife is a die hard PNW girl, but her first time going to the Georgia coast, she wanted to pick up and move immediately.  I had to reminder her that we would not be living in a beachfront house but would instead be living along swamp land inland, and she dialed back her enthusiasm a bit.  Plus she has a very pale complexion, so she absolutely fries in the sun down there.

Can't stand hot weather, the only thing worse is hot and humid weather, so I'm pretty certain I would hate living in the South. Only exception might be some place like Boone, NC. They have a pretty nice highland climate. Florida would definitely be just about the worst. No mountains, not even any decent hills.

[Chewbacca Defense]

7 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

I've been to New Orleans, Pensacola, Tampa, Daytona. Granted, never the SE coast along Georgia and South Carolina. All seasons.

My better half has a work conference scheduled for May in Charleston. Maybe I'll get a taste, but for now I'm very glad I'm not in that part of the country.

It's easy to get swept up in the mood there, but given enough time, and to really think about it, most of the Georgia Coast is a great place to visit, or even have a vacation home, but you have to be cut from a different cloth to live there.  Never been to Charleston, I need to get there soon my mom moved there last fall to be closer to my sister.  Unfortunately my sister and I have a pretty toxic relationship, so it will probably be a quick trip.

[van city]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well back to regularly scheduled programming…

Here is the Fuzz. 

How much snow there?

[Ken in Wood Village]

I found this picture, it's so amazing it must have been really cold to freeze the Columbia River. Now this is Arctic Air

[Chewbacca Defense]

3 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Going outside is like a war zone. Melting ice causing explosions and incredibly dangerous conditions in every direction. This is insanity. Still no power.

This will be remembered for a long time.

I watched a couple of news stories about the carnage down there, you guys aren't going to have any trees left after this.  They drove through one neighborhood and any tree that had not fallen had lost most of it's branches/top.  Crazy.

[mtep]

It came. 

[Skagit Weather]

Still have about 0.5-1" of something frozen on the ground. After 1:30 a.m. I don't know if the lack of the precipitation or the temperatures were more of the problem, but most of the precip shifted north and I was left with light rain and a temperature hovering just above 32F.

Many models show snow as the front sweeps through in a couple hours so we'll see. 32.7F out.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I found this picture, it's so amazing it must have been really cold to freeze the Columbia River. Now this is Arctic Air

No dams made it a lot easier to freeze. Ice would raft in from east of the mountains, and a below freezing spell would enable the ice floes to lock up and consolidate.

[BLI snowman]

Over 1/3" of ice here, but temp starting to inch up. Now at 29 so some relief isn't far off. Probably now our biggest icing since January 2004 here. 

Edited January 17 by BLI snowman

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, van city said:

How much snow there?

0.00”. Temp up to 33.3. No idea why our area schools are closed or 2hrs late. Complete non event normal morning here. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Can't stand hot weather, the only thing worse is hot and humid weather, so I'm pretty certain I would hate living in the South. Only exception might be some place like Boone, NC. They have a pretty nice highland climate. Florida would definitely be just about the worst. No mountains, not even any decent hills.

Never been to Boone, but yeah that would be nice from what I have heard.  My best friend from high school lives in Asheville, I visited him for the first time a couple of years ago, an I could see myself doing that part of the country.   I've also been to Highlands, NC a couple of times, and that is really nice, though it is chock full of vacation homes for the "elite" from Atlanta, so it's very expensive.

[MikeInEverett]

Bellingham looks like a nice place to be right now..

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The freezing rain here played out just how I described yesterday,  light coating on trees but the ground has a solid 1/4 ice, I fell walking to my truck. Most ice on the ground I have seen here, much worse than the last time in December.  31.8.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

0.00”. Temp up to 33.3. No idea why our area schools are closed or 2hrs late. Complete non event normal morning here. 

Yep besides the cold couple days this was a non event for most of western Washington really. 

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

I have about 1/2” of icing on the trees. Now that the sub tropical temperatures have moved in let’s see how this melting goes today. 

[ShawniganLake]

5.5” here.  Still snowing.   Someone out in the Fraser valley is likely going to get over a foot 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

5.5” here.  Still snowing.   Someone out in the Fraser valley is likely going to get over a foot 

And more coming tomorrow up there.

[Slushy Inch]

7 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

Wow.

Confused faces? Do you not understand the map?

[Everleigh]

Yelm has pushed to a 3 hour delay. They REALLY don't want to cancel school again, I guess. lol smh Hubbs went to work and said it's really slick and icy here in Yelm, but once you get to Roy, it's just wet. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Confused faces? Do you not understand the map?

Takeaway for me is that the EPS is significantly better than the GEFS for snowfall. 

[MikeInEverett]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Confused faces? Do you not understand the map?

GFS says I have a 100% chance of getting over an inch of snow and ECMWF says it’s impossible

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Everleigh said:

Yelm has pushed to a 3 hour delay. They REALLY don't want to cancel school again, I guess. lol smh Hubbs went to work and said it's really slick and icy here in Yelm, but once you get to Roy, it's just wet. 

Never heard of a 3 hour delay.   They want credit for the day. 

[MikeInEverett]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Takeaway for me is the the EPS is significantly better than the GEFS for snowfall. 

Feel like the Euro did an amazing job overall with this Arctic Blast. Makes it tougher and tougher to brush it aside in the future.

[Slushy Inch]

33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

New 12Z runs all initialized the low moving across the north side of the Olympics this morning and disappearing as it heads into the Cascades so that explains the tangible weather across the area.   In terms of model performance this is right where the ECMWF has been showing it for a couple days now.  

In a few hours we will probably see the euro be correct. Gfs has snow starting for me around 1 pm RGEm around 11am

[FroYoBro]

4 minutes ago, Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone said:

I have about 1/2” of icing on the trees. Now that the sub tropical temperatures have moved in let’s see how this melting goes today. 

What is the temperature up to there?

[Chewbacca Defense]

I think we are back to pretty much all snow falling, and holding at 29 degrees

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Takeaway for me is that the EPS is significantly better than the GEFS for snowfall. 

Yeah. That ensemble difference is wild. Making gefs look useless 

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I watched a couple of news stories about the carnage down there, you guys aren't going to have any trees left after this.  They drove through one neighborhood and any tree that had not fallen had lost most of it's branches/top.  Crazy.

Inconsistent tree concern from some on here. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Dumping. Temperature parked at 30.4˚F. Will go out and take another measurement around 8:00 am.

[ajreich]

Still at 26 and now up to half inch of ice Really not sure how all this gonna melt off today as the NWS thinks. The warm air just isn’t coming north as modeled at all. At 600’ we should be mixing out before the valley and yet we’re still 3-4 degrees colder. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MikeInEverett said:

Feel like the Euro did an amazing job overall with this Arctic Blast. Makes it tougher and tougher to brush it aside in the future.

Indeed.   And it was consistently colder than the GFS with the initial blast and that was definitely the right answer too.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like Eugene made it to midnight for another sub freezing high. Salem popped around 4am. Raining and 42 here his morning. Off to work I go.

[Phishy Wx]

23 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Can't stand hot weather, the only thing worse is hot and humid weather, so I'm pretty certain I would hate living in the South. Only exception might be some place like Boone, NC. They have a pretty nice highland climate. Florida would definitely be just about the worst. No mountains, not even any decent hills.

the Boone/Banner Elk area of NC is nice and has all 4 seasons.  you can get property up to close to 6000' in a few areas, which is high for the east coast, high for anywhere outside of the Rockies or Sierra really