January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Let’s bring that puppy to either the southern tip of Vancouver Island, or if there is enough cold air to tap into let’s plow that thing into the mouth of the Columbia…With it still straightening. 

I'd like to se a 952 low come in near Astoria with a 1062 high centered around willams lake bc.

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, Andstorm said:

I think the winter of 23-24 will go down as pretty weird one. one week of record low temps surrounded by very mild conditions. I don’t recall a winter here in portland at least where the 850 temps have been this high this consistently. Hell, the 850 temps weren’t even very impressive here during the cold stretch. It’s not a dud but i think hindsight will reveal this to be a more trademark nino winter than it feels like in the moment. 

It’s January 19th…Lots of winter yet to go. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Agreed. Even a couple magic 8 balls on the 12z ensembles. 

February has been the magic month. I don't care about El Nino. 

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

It’s January 19th…Lots of winter yet to go. 

41 days

[Meatyorologist]

I think February will bring a deeeep trough out of the NW with marginal snowfall for the favored spots. Maybe even some here

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I think February will bring a deeeep trough out of the NW with marginal snowfall for the favored spots. Maybe even some here

I have had 1 large 10 inch plus snowfall every year since 2019.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

41 days

57 days since my snow brain calendar has meteorological winter going through the second week of March! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Still really cold Up around the cabin, 17 degrees.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, MossMan said:

57 days since my snow brain calendar has meteorological winter going through the second week of March! 

Yep our spots can do very good till march 25 or so.

[MossMan]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yep our spots can do very good till march 25 or so.

Been some lovely events in March recently…Not to mention the fantastic event in March of 1989 which dumped a foot at my place back then. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

Well, still no power stuff is melting and I was able to get to the store. Roads are OK but a little slick in spots. The hill next to me is a hill you don't want to stop on because you will get stuck. You need to get enough momentum to reach the top and then slow enough to take a right turn into the complex. I did slide a little doing that but slowed enough to get the vehicle under control. 

I don't mind it snowing but all the freezing rain is way to much. You can't do anything on ice. I'm hoping we stay above freezing tonight so the ice melts more. Talk about having cabin fever one thing I do wish for is our power to come back

[SouthHillFrosty]

22 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I have had 1 large 10 inch plus snowfall every year since 2019.

I’ve never seen a double digital snowstorm before. Hoping next year is the first!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

I’ve never seen a double digital snowstorm before. Hoping next year is the first!

In 2019 i had a 18 incher in 24 hrs

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Still 39 degrees at home. Been below 40 degrees for 9 days now

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

In 2019 i had a 18 incher in 24 hrs

Didn’t get that deep here, but it was still top tier for March for sure!! 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Well, still no power stuff is melting and I was able to get to the store. Roads are OK but a little slick in spots. The hill next to me is a hill you don't want to stop on because you will get stuck. You need to get enough momentum to reach the top and then slow enough to take a right turn into the complex. I did slide a little doing that but slowed enough to get the vehicle under control. 

I don't mind it snowing but all the freezing rain is way to much. You can't do anything on ice. I'm hoping we stay above freezing tonight so the ice melts more. Talk about having cabin fever one thing I do wish for is our power to come back

Ice is such pain for so many reasons. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

In 2019 i had a 18 incher in 24 hrs

Yea we turned to rain really early out here. South Hill for some reason can’t get double digit snowstorms. Tacoma has seen more than South Hill. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I’ve never seen a double digital snowstorm before. Hoping next year is the first!

I’m on a streak of three consecutive winters with them. Hoping to make it 4 next winter.

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I’m on a streak of three consecutive winters with them. Hoping to make it 4 next winter.

Think I’m on my 5th consecutive double digit single event, if I get one this winter I get to add another to the streak! 

[Tyler Mode]

Nice afternoon, made it up to 38, warmest since last Thursday.

[TT-SEA]

Going from perpetually below freezing for most of the last week to no below freezing temps even at night in sight now.  

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'd like to se a 952 low come in near Astoria with a 1062 high centered around willams lake bc.

[Tanis Leach]

6 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

1889-90, 1973-74, and 1988-89 are probably the three strongest. 

From the reanalysis Phil provided; 89-90 was a high end moderate. Is there another source I am not seeing?

 

(This is not intended as criticism).

[Tanis Leach]

6 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If we really do get the ENSO flip the odds are extremely high we see an arctic blast next winter. @Tanis Leach pointed this out recently. 

By extention, assuming an arctic blast happens, a 95% ish chance (lost that file when computer went kapoot) we get 1.5 inches or more of snow in Portland.

 

Unfortunately 72-73 went into 73-74 which was the exception. Strong Nino into strong Nina. Thankfully AMO was negative then, and it's positive now. 

[Phil]

From 2 separate storms but ~ 10” on the deck now.  

 

[MossMan]

41 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Going from perpetually below freezing for most of the last week to no below freezing temps even at night in sight now.  

Wonder if I might hit freezing tonight, already down to 37 after a high of 41. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wonder if I might hit freezing tonight, already down to 37 after a high of 41. 

Yeah... not sure about your wintry microclimate!   I was referencing the Seattle area and my area as well.   Temp is actually going up a little here after dark and east wind won't let it drop much.  

[Christensen87]

Yay…

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/19/weather/winter-pattern-cold-temperatures-climate/index.html

[ShawniganLake]

Rained all day. Only made it up to 35F.  Still 8-9” on the ground, but it’s the heavy stuff.  Power went off briefly this afternoon but was quickly back on.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

36.5 degrees

 Any clearing will lead to freezing temps again

 The ground is still frozen out here, very strange.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yep our spots can do very good till march 25 or so.

April 11 is our modern day cutoff for significant snowfall in the Portland area.

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Rained all day. Only made it up to 35F.  Still 8-9” on the ground, but it’s the heavy stuff.  Power went off briefly this afternoon but was quickly back on.  

Ended up dry here all day... maybe 2 inches of very dense snowcover left which is layered with some sleet and ice from freezing rain.   When we got home early this morning the trees were all still hanging with ice and there was around 4 inches of snow.   Still hovering around 40 this evening with a dewpoint in the low 30s and the east wind still going.   Now the east wind will be keeping us warmer than wind protected places.   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 week of winter just isn't long enough,  my biggest ***** with this climate is that. Some winter don't even deliver that.

It must of been amazing around here in winter back a few hundred years, it would be so cool to know what the snow averages were back then. 

There might of been stuff that would make 1880 1916 1950 look like child's play.

 

[BLI snowman]

51 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

From the reanalysis Phil provided; 89-90 was a high end moderate. Is there another source I am not seeing?

 

(This is not intended as criticism).

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino34.long.anom.data

1889-90 actually shows up as the strongest Nina peak on record in 3.4. I believe that January was the lowest SST reading in 3.4 in the HADISST1 dataset. Pretty good chance that it was an exceptionally strong event. The 500mb pattern was off the charts that winter, with a SE ridge and warmth in the East that would be top tier even now. 

Another pre-1950 contender is 1916-17, which has the most positive SOI on record. And another one that clearly had an exceptional 500mb pattern. 

1955-56 was also a very high end event. 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still no internet. At my janitor job for a couple hours. Looks like some 50F and maybe 60F burgers coming up.

[Meatyorologist]

42 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino34.long.anom.data

1889-90 actually shows up as the strongest Nina peak on record in 3.4. I believe that January was the lowest SST reading in 3.4 in the HADISST1 dataset. Pretty good chance that it was an exceptionally strong event. The 500mb pattern was off the charts that winter, with a SE ridge and warmth in the East that would be top tier even now. 

Another pre-1950 contender is 1916-17, which has the most positive SOI on record. And another one that clearly had an exceptional 500mb pattern. 

1955-56 was also a very high end event. 

 

Where do you get the 500mb charts for that era?

[ShawniganLake]

49 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Still no internet. At my janitor job for a couple hours. Looks like some 50F and maybe 60F burgers coming up.

Hey sweet man.  You got a job. I must have missed that.  I knew you were frustrated trying to get hired somewhere last year.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

April 11 is our modern day cutoff for significant snowfall in the Portland area.

One of my top 5 favorite storms of all time. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

1 week of winter just isn't long enough,  my biggest ***** with this climate is that. Some winter don't even deliver that.

It must of been amazing around here in winter back a few hundred years, it would be so cool to know what the snow averages were back then. 

There might of been stuff that would make 1880 1916 1950 look like child's play.

 

Yeah, I still feel like we got lucky this year. I know a lot of people have good memories of 2020-21, but 4 days of winter during a Nina was a huge bummer imo, plus getting slammed with a sh$t sandwich of ice was a drag too. At least this event delivered some top tier cold to the areas that had ice.   Salem had the worst of both worlds in 2021, slammed with ice and one 32/29 day. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

From 2 separate storms but ~ 10” on the deck now.  

 

Glad for you. Now you don’t have to actively root against us.