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January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot


iFred

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6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Let’s bring that puppy to either the southern tip of Vancouver Island, or if there is enough cold air to tap into let’s plow that thing into the mouth of the Columbia…With it still straightening. 

I'd like to se a 952 low come in near Astoria with a 1062 high centered around willams lake bc.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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9 minutes ago, Andstorm said:

I think the winter of 23-24 will go down as pretty weird one. one week of record low temps surrounded by very mild conditions. I don’t recall a winter here in portland at least where the 850 temps have been this high this consistently. Hell, the 850 temps weren’t even very impressive here during the cold stretch. It’s not a dud but i think hindsight will reveal this to be a more trademark nino winter than it feels like in the moment. 

It’s January 19th…Lots of winter yet to go. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Agreed. Even a couple magic 8 balls on the 12z ensembles. 

February has been the magic month. I don't care about El Nino. 

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PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 16" (5 events)

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I think February will bring a deeeep trough out of the NW with marginal snowfall for the favored spots. Maybe even some here

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I think February will bring a deeeep trough out of the NW with marginal snowfall for the favored spots. Maybe even some here

I have had 1 large 10 inch plus snowfall every year since 2019.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

41 days

57 days since my snow brain calendar has meteorological winter going through the second week of March! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yep our spots can do very good till march 25 or so.

Been some lovely events in March recently…Not to mention the fantastic event in March of 1989 which dumped a foot at my place back then. 

IMG_2187.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

In 2019 i had a 18 incher in 24 hrs

Didn’t get that deep here, but it was still top tier for March for sure!! 

IMG_2188.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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10 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Well, still no power 😕 stuff is melting and I was able to get to the store. Roads are OK but a little slick in spots. The hill next to me is a hill you don't want to stop on because you will get stuck. You need to get enough momentum to reach the top and then slow enough to take a right turn into the complex. I did slide a little doing that but slowed enough to get the vehicle under control. 

I don't mind it snowing but all the freezing rain is way to much. You can't do anything on ice. I'm hoping we stay above freezing tonight so the ice melts more. Talk about having cabin fever 😒 one thing I do wish for is our power to come back 🙏

Ice is such pain for so many reasons. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

In 2019 i had a 18 incher in 24 hrs

Yea we turned to rain really early out here. South Hill for some reason can’t get double digit snowstorms. Tacoma has seen more than South Hill. 

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9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I’m on a streak of three consecutive winters with them. Hoping to make it 4 next winter.

Think I’m on my 5th consecutive double digit single event, if I get one this winter I get to add another to the streak! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Going from perpetually below freezing for most of the last week to no below freezing temps even at night in sight now.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'd like to se a 952 low come in near Astoria with a 1062 high centered around willams lake bc.

😍

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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6 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If we really do get the ENSO flip the odds are extremely high we see an arctic blast next winter. @Tanis Leach pointed this out recently. 

By extention, assuming an arctic blast happens, a 95% ish chance (lost that file when computer went kapoot) we get 1.5 inches or more of snow in Portland.

 

Unfortunately 72-73 went into 73-74 which was the exception. Strong Nino into strong Nina. Thankfully AMO was negative then, and it's positive now. 

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41 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Going from perpetually below freezing for most of the last week to no below freezing temps even at night in sight now.  

Wonder if I might hit freezing tonight, already down to 37 after a high of 41. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Wonder if I might hit freezing tonight, already down to 37 after a high of 41. 

Yeah... not sure about your wintry microclimate!   I was referencing the Seattle area and my area as well.   Temp is actually going up a little here after dark and east wind won't let it drop much.  

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15 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Rained all day. Only made it up to 35F.  Still 8-9” on the ground, but it’s the heavy stuff.  Power went off briefly this afternoon but was quickly back on.  

Ended up dry here all day... maybe 2 inches of very dense snowcover left which is layered with some sleet and ice from freezing rain.   When we got home early this morning the trees were all still hanging with ice and there was around 4 inches of snow.   Still hovering around 40 this evening with a dewpoint in the low 30s and the east wind still going.   Now the east wind will be keeping us warmer than wind protected places.   

20240119_180428.jpg

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1 week of winter just isn't long enough,  my biggest ***** with this climate is that. Some winter don't even deliver that.

It must of been amazing around here in winter back a few hundred years, it would be so cool to know what the snow averages were back then. 

There might of been stuff that would make 1880 1916 1950 look like child's play.

 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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51 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

From the reanalysis Phil provided; 89-90 was a high end moderate. Is there another source I am not seeing?

 

(This is not intended as criticism).

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino34.long.anom.data

1889-90 actually shows up as the strongest Nina peak on record in 3.4. I believe that January was the lowest SST reading in 3.4 in the HADISST1 dataset. Pretty good chance that it was an exceptionally strong event. The 500mb pattern was off the charts that winter, with a SE ridge and warmth in the East that would be top tier even now. 

Another pre-1950 contender is 1916-17, which has the most positive SOI on record. And another one that clearly had an exceptional 500mb pattern. 

1955-56 was also a very high end event. 

 

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Still no internet. At my janitor job for a couple hours. Looks like some 50F and maybe 60F burgers coming up.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 20 (Most recent: Feb 13, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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42 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino34.long.anom.data

1889-90 actually shows up as the strongest Nina peak on record in 3.4. I believe that January was the lowest SST reading in 3.4 in the HADISST1 dataset. Pretty good chance that it was an exceptionally strong event. The 500mb pattern was off the charts that winter, with a SE ridge and warmth in the East that would be top tier even now. 

Another pre-1950 contender is 1916-17, which has the most positive SOI on record. And another one that clearly had an exceptional 500mb pattern. 

1955-56 was also a very high end event. 

 

Where do you get the 500mb charts for that era?

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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49 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Still no internet. At my janitor job for a couple hours. Looks like some 50F and maybe 60F burgers coming up.

Hey sweet man.  You got a job. I must have missed that.  I knew you were frustrated trying to get hired somewhere last year.  

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1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

April 11 is our modern day cutoff for significant snowfall in the Portland area.

One of my top 5 favorite storms of all time. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

1 week of winter just isn't long enough,  my biggest ***** with this climate is that. Some winter don't even deliver that.

It must of been amazing around here in winter back a few hundred years, it would be so cool to know what the snow averages were back then. 

There might of been stuff that would make 1880 1916 1950 look like child's play.

 

Yeah, I still feel like we got lucky this year. I know a lot of people have good memories of 2020-21, but 4 days of winter during a Nina was a huge bummer imo, plus getting slammed with a sh$t sandwich of ice was a drag too. At least this event delivered some top tier cold to the areas that had ice.   Salem had the worst of both worlds in 2021, slammed with ice and one 32/29 day. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

From 2 separate storms but ~ 10” on the deck now. ☃️ 

IMG_9911.jpeg

 

Glad for you. Now you don’t have to actively root against us. 😜

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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