December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[Phil]

It’s not bad. That TPV is getting a little too close to the Beaufort Sea/West Arctic for my liking, however. Hopefully there’s enough Eurasian ridging to keep it farther south into the Yukon like some earlier runs showed.

[Jesse]

Just now, Phil said:

That TPV is getting a little too close to the Beaufort Sea/West Arctic for my liking. Hopefully there’s enough Eurasian ridging to keep it farther south into the Yukon like some earlier runs showed.

We managed to score some at Costco again last week. 

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

The day you catch me driving a minivan is the day the sequel to January 1950 begins.

I drive a 2011 Acura. Hopefully not for much longer.

 

So you were driving one in late December 2017?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ENSO 3.4 region checks in at -1.1C this week. 

[MossMan]

17 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Creepy.

I know where you live...And exactly when your badminton practices happen...You need to work on your serve. 

[Phil]

Just now, Jesse said:

We managed to score some at Costco again last week. 

We need a Jay Inslee clone over here.

[TT-SEA]

Partly sunny and 54... nice day.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS...

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

So you were driving one in late December 2017?

‘99 RL. I think.

Maybe it is an analog??

[kokaneekidz]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

The day you catch me driving a minivan is the day the sequel to January 1950 begins.

I drive a 2011 Acura. Hopefully not for much longer.

 

Nice! I have a 1991 Legend LS coupe in Pearl White that I drive on sunny days. Acura is a great vehicle. I see Andrew has a RDX as well i noticed in the background of a pic from other day. Great Brand and most reliable

[Jesse]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

ENSO 3.4 region checks in at -1.1C this week. 

Praying  for summer  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS...

Looks like a wet mountain snow pattern. If that ridge ever noses into Alaska we will be in business. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My wife drives an Acura, RDX I believe. I like it better than my Outback. 

[kokaneekidz]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My wife drives an Acura, RDX I believe. I like it better than my Outback. 

The turbo spools up nicely on those. A hoot to drive!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

M'lady drives a Toyota Highlander. I drive nothing anymore because of epilepsy. I miss it but there are plenty of other things to be happy about.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

M'lady drives a Toyota Highlander. I drive nothing anymore because of epilepsy. I miss it but there are plenty of other things to be happy about.

Highlander's are nice. We got the Acura because her brother won $50K at the casino and bought a new Highlander, gave us his Acura. He is a nice guy.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said:

Nice! I have a 1991 Legend LS coupe in Pearl White that I drive on sunny days. Acura is a great vehicle. I see Andrew has a RDX as well i noticed in the background of a pic from other day. Great Brand and most reliable

Nice! That is actually my favorite Acura ever made! It was so ahead of its time! 
My wife had a 2002 RSX before it had to go away due to not having room for kids, it was a fun little car that was flawless inside and out. 

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said:

Nice! I have a 1991 Legend LS coupe in Pearl White that I drive on sunny days. Acura is a great vehicle. I see Andrew has a RDX as well i noticed in the background of a pic from other day. Great Brand and most reliable

My TSX is pearl white too. Definitely a nice car, balances fuel economy and performance exceptionally. Probably why I’m still clinging to it (other than the fact I’m borderline broke at the moment).

Atrocious in the snow, though. Easily the worst winter car I’ve ever driven. Also loses alignment more quickly than the RL did. But I suppose you can’t have it all.

[ShawniganLake]

22 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s not bad. That TPV is getting a little too close to the Beaufort Sea/West Arctic for my liking, however. Hopefully there’s enough Eurasian ridging to keep it farther south into the Yukon like some earlier runs showed.

The lowland snow for the 3rd week of December should be coming into focus very soon.

[Phil]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

The lowland snow for the 3rd week of December should be coming into focus very soon.

Hopefully! I see more cold risk during the 2nd half of December than is currently advertised on guidance. But my perspective could be wrong.

[Deweydog]

This thing woulda come in handy soon!

 

[Gradient Keeper]

2 hours ago, Jbolin said:

Just got my COVID test result back after feeling "funky" for the past week, (Positive for COVID) 

I am shocked that I'm positive considering I have been working from home since early March, have groceries/other items delivered, no family or friends contact, constantly washing hands, etc. 

Started to feel achy/lethargic last Sunday, appetite waned the next day, periodic fever just north of 102F, occasional vomiting and tired, tired, tired. 

This sucks and I'm a little pissed that despite my best efforts to protect myself I still contracted this virus. 

My presence will be limited for the foreseeable future. 

Be smart guys, PLEASE don't take unnecessary risks, I'll see ya when I see ya. 

Take care

That sucks. Get well soon!

[Phil]

The Eurasia/NW-Pacific pattern is more than decent. W-IO standing wave is weakening. The PV is being kept off balance.

At worst, there are no red flags yet. At best, the pattern appears more favorable to build blocking than most of the niñas this century.

[kokaneekidz]

15 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Nice! That is actually my favorite Acura ever made! It was so ahead of its time! 
My wife had a 2002 RSX before it had to go away due to not having room for kids, it was a fun little car that was flawless inside and out. 

I love the self sealing doors on my Legend. Now only Bentleys and million dollar cars have that feature unfortunately. That is a beautiful Berlina Black RSX!!! Those were fast, BUT they should have kept the Integra nameplate like in Japan domestic market.

[Front Ranger]

D**n, aside from the CMC the models have kind of taken a poop today.

[kokaneekidz]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

D**n, aside from the CMC the models have kind of taken a poop today.

At least the NOAA forecasters are in the snow camp.

 

  .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...We should expect 
  temperatures to begin their return back to normal as towards the 
  end of the week. This return will be largely due to a stronger 
  frontal system moving through Thursday. This will bring rain to 
  the lowlands and a few inches of snow at pass level on Thursday. 
  This system will also bring more seasonable temperatures to the 
  area. After the front moves through, their is the potential for 
  some ridging to occur offshore. Moisture would be transported over 
  the ridge crest and down through Western Washington. This moisture 
  will could produce some heavier rain and mountain snow. Moreover,  
  with the trough over the area, providing colder surface  
  temperatures and snow levels dropping to less than 1000 feet in  
  some locations (mostly near Bellingham), their is the potential  
  for snow or rain snow/mix to occur towards the end of the week.  
  This is still a ways out so confidence is low, but it is night  
  three of both deterministic models and ensembles suggesting this. 
   
  Butwin 

[Jesse]

2 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said:

At least the NOAA forecasters are in the snow camp.

 

  .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...We should expect 
  temperatures to begin their return back to normal as towards the 
  end of the week. This return will be largely due to a stronger 
  frontal system moving through Thursday. This will bring rain to 
  the lowlands and a few inches of snow at pass level on Thursday. 
  This system will also bring more seasonable temperatures to the 
  area. After the front moves through, their is the potential for 
  some ridging to occur offshore. Moisture would be transported over 
  the ridge crest and down through Western Washington. This moisture 
  will could produce some heavier rain and mountain snow. Moreover,  
  with the trough over the area, providing colder surface  
  temperatures and snow levels dropping to less than 1000 feet in  
  some locations (mostly near Bellingham), their is the potential  
  for snow or rain snow/mix to occur towards the end of the week.  
  This is still a ways out so confidence is low, but it is night  
  three of both deterministic models and ensembles suggesting this. 
   
  Butwin 

Their it is again!!

[kokaneekidz]

Just now, Jesse said:

Their it is again!!

Thanks for the moral support Mr Jesse!

[SouthHillFrosty]

Who else is ready to be disappointed by the weekly model runs?!!!!!!

[Phil]

I’m in the bullish camp for now. There’s always a way for things to go wrong, even in the statistically-ideal big picture setups, but on balance I’d put this winter in the leans cold/snowy column for PNW region. Probably for the NW half of the county.

East coast probably has another 2019/20 fail. As I’ve said before, these megafail torch winters tend to come in clusters of 2 out here (sometimes 3 out of 4). Easier forecast, even without taking that into account.

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

D**n, aside from the CMC the models have kind of taken a poop today.

Yeah, they looked AMAZING yesterday...

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Less than ideal...

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Less than ideal...

This one is a bit better, perhaps better than last nights.  Maybe not ideal, but better than the GEFS

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

This one is a bit better, perhaps better than last nights.  Maybe not ideal, but better than the GEFS

GEM is ok too, tho not sure how reliable that model is...

[Rubus Leucodermis]

16 minutes ago, kokaneekidz said:

…snow levels dropping to less than 1000 feet in some locations (mostly near Bellingham)…

Sweet!

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Sweet!

 

12Z ECMWF does not show much lowland snow... not even for my area.   I am not sure what the NWS is seeing but we know the GFS snowfall maps can be goofy.

 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF does not show much lowland snow... not even for my area.   I am not sure what the NWS is seeing but we know the GFS snowfall maps can be goofy.

We shall see. I’m not expecting more than some slushy glop that melts relatively quickly at best. Seems like a marginal set-up.

[jakerepp]

You rich people and your functioning cars...

[Rubus Leucodermis]

This is probably the best (i.e. snowiest in the lowlands) GFS map I can find, and it’s definitely very marginal. Only shows lowland snow up against the Coast Mountains where precip rates are the highest (and perhaps some cooler air is banked). We shall see.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Hmmm… Actually have some green over me on this one.