Phil Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 30 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: Ugh, I rather go from a rain event to snow rather then snow to rain. I see the sleet and rain line pushing in Enjoy the moment best you can Yup we’re over to 100% sleet now. Party is over. Temp is 29.7°F so ZR/icing is a concern. 1 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Unfortunately the 12Z Euro made a big move toward the GFS in the handling of the trough early next week. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: Looks similar to the 12z GFS actually. Trough just doesn't dig. 12z/00z Euro comparison... Looks like the strength of that little ULL offshore is what makes the difference. A more rubust one keeps the dipping heights at bay over our region. Models struggle with ULLs more than they do with many upper level features, which would explain the run to run swings in the mid range lately. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 33 and cloudy. Radar looking really healthy this morning. 1 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 18 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, Jesse said: Unfortunately the 12Z Euro made a big move toward the GFS in the handling of the trough early next week. We had 12 hours of hope. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 12z God Emperor Euro shows a couple inches at my place tonight into early tomorrow. But sort of stops going a week out. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 18 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 It's probably been mentioned recently, but December is often the best month for the East during a La Nina. 2 1 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: We had 12 hours of hope. It could always flip back at this point, or not. Every run has shown us kind of on the razor's edge for a decent cold snap, the trend this morning just happens to be a stronger ULL underneath the offshore ridge. 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 I think this may be the first time the GFS has been too aggressive with the southward push of cold air in the mid range. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: It's probably been mentioned recently, but December is often the best month for the East during a La Nina. Didn't they get a couple nice big storms in '10-'11 also? I was finishing my senior year of HS down here and distinctly remember the east coast getting a blizzard or two. Was a nice season for the PNW Cascades. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 18 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: I think this may be the first time the GFS has been too aggressive with the southward push of cold air in the mid range. Great analysis as always. The Euro was on board too. Actually, it picked up on the pattern first yesterday, then the GFS "caught up" with the 00Z run last night. 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 That snow Dec 21-23 range definitely not there anymore unless it's being pushed back. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 18 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 15 minutes ago, Jesse said: Looks like the strength of that little ULL offshore is what makes the difference. A more rubust one keeps the dipping heights at bay over our region. Models struggle with ULLs more than they do with many upper level features, which would explain the run to run swings in the mid range lately. I’m not sure it’s the ULL as much as it’s the shortwave amplitude itself, through which the ULL and transient GOA ridge exists . Basically an imbedded shortwave in quasi-destructive interference w/ long wave pattern. Fickle, to say the least. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Phil said: I’m not sure it’s the ULL as much as it’s the shortwave amplitude itself, through which the ULL and transient GOA ridge exists . Basically an imbedded shortwave in quasi-destructive interference w/ long wave pattern. Fickle, to say the least. There’s always more than one way to look at it. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: It's probably been mentioned recently, but December is often the best month for the East during a La Nina. And March. Niña Decembers with cold/snow here usually have something more down the line, so I’m a bit more hopeful now. As opposed to warm/snowless Niña Decembers, which are a death sentence for winter almost 100% of the time. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 11 minutes ago, Jesse said: Great analysis as always. The Euro was on board too. Actually, it picked up on the pattern first yesterday, then the GFS "caught up" with the 00Z run last night. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said: Nice. You forgot to mention all the signs of spring around your property in touday’s update!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Shots fired!!! 1 1 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Shots fired!!! And it happened without you despite your efforts to provoke something all week. Time to step up your game 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Jesse said: Nice. You forgot to mention all the signs of spring around your property in touday’s update!! Ask and you shall receive. Just snapped this one of the camellias in bloom 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said: Ask and you shall receive. Just snapped this one of the camellias in bloom Not buying it. Need to see a picture with today’s copy of the Shawnigazette in frame. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Anyway, I think there was some actual model discussion going on before things got derailed. I will be interested to see how the EPS handles next week’s progression. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, Jesse said: And it happened without you despite your efforts to provoke something all week. Time to step up your game Example? 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Jesse said: Anyway, I think there was some actual model discussion going on before things got derailed. I will be interested to see how the EPS handles next week’s progression. We don’t have a daily paper here. Had to use last Thursday’s. Hope this is satisfactory. 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Example? 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, Jesse said: Anyway, I think there was some actual model discussion going on before things got derailed. I will be interested to see how the EPS handles next week’s progression. You are right, looks lovely. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 10-day total 2.4". Major low end outlier this run for me. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 18 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 28 minutes ago, Jesse said: Great analysis as always. The Euro was on board too. Actually, it picked up on the pattern first yesterday, then the GFS "caught up" with the 00Z run last night. Anyways. Putting your little Jesse freak out aside. My post made no mention of what the Euro or any other model was showing. Just more a comment on how the GFS tends to handle things at that range. It’s an ongoing issue for it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, Jesse said: So again, examples? I can find plenty from you. 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, van city said: You are right, looks lovely. I'm not seeing the 12Z on pivotal yet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Anywho... Would be nice to see weather action pick up a bit... 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Jesse had his first weenie meltdown of the season. Analog? 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Anywho... Would be nice to see weather action pick up a bit... Here’s hoping! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Love the humor from the Kansas City NWS (and it is true) NWS Kansas City @NWSKansasCity What we said: Some snow flurries remain possible tonight, as very very light snow moves slowly through the region. What you read: Blah blah blah blah SNOW blah blah, blah blah SNOW blah blah blah blah. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Anywho... Would be nice to see weather action pick up a bit... Maritime continent forcing looks to go crazy second half of January. Which, unlike the 1st half of December, is very much a cold West signal at that point due to seasonal changes in wave pool climatology. Throw in the weak PV (perhaps a SSW) and the cards are all in place. Still bearish on the first 7-10 days of January. But it’s nothing to worry about if that period is warm should the other stuff come to fruition. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, Timmy said: Jesse had his first weenie meltdown of the season. Analog? Anyone actually following along would see that isn't what happened. Of course most people, including @iFred, usually just skim this stuff, see my name a lot, and think it was 100% me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Phil said: Maritime continent forcing looks to go crazy second half of January. Which, unlike the 1st half of December, is very much a cold West signal at that point due to seasonal changes to wave pool climatology. Throw in the weak PV (perhaps a SSW) and the cards are all in place. Still bearish on the first 7-10 days of January. But it’s nothing to worry about if that period is warm. A decent storm train would be nice. And I’m still a fan of the latter half of January. Always have been. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catnip Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 28 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Ask and you shall receive. Just snapped this one of the camellias in bloom Think blooming camellias and warm anomalies! C'MON!!!!!!!! 1 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, Jesse said: Anyone actually following along would see that isn't what happened. Of course most people, including @iFred, usually just skim this stuff, see my name a lot, and think it was 100% me. It's ok man. We all have our weenie moments once in a while. You are allowed at least one this month! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 16, 2020 Report Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Jesse said: Anyone actually following along would see that isn't what happened. Of course most people, including @iFred, usually just skim this stuff, see my name a lot, and think it was 100% me. You personalize things far more than anyone else at this point. Others may have matched you or even exceeded it at times in the past, but it’s generally not the case right now. You’re sticking out like a sore thumb. It makes you very susceptible to improperly analyzing posts from people on your little hit list in a certain light and dusting things up. Common thread. Anyway, let’s hope for something EVERYONE can get excited about! 6 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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