SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Next weekend is looking a little chilly on the GFS. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 9 minutes ago, Esquimalt said: Looks like the mesos are favoring Seattle, but the globals are favoring Vic. Who would you believe in this situation? I think Port Angeles-Victoria is the safest bet for a sustained period of heavy precip as the wind switches. I'd be surprised if Seattle proper actually sees accumulation below 400-500'. Eastern King County looks good though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Thinking this'll end up being a foothills event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Cloud said: Thinking this'll end up being a foothills event. Tim actually invited every single one of us to stay at his house for the rest of Christmas week. I'll bring a few board games and plenty of snacks! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 2 hours ago, Tyler Mode said: Shortest day (light) of the year...Last column is total day length. I'm curious what everyone's day length (and location) is today. I love picking out random cities on the map and finding out what their day length is around the solstices. Here the day length is just under 8:19 today. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, Cloud said: Thinking this'll end up being a foothills event. this is exactly what it's going to be 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 8 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: What the hell?! 3.4“ at KBLI! Lookin’ good! 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 The GEM and ICON bring the low in a bit further south than the GFS. FWIW. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 14 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 06z Euro continued with the idea put forth by the 00z that any snow for the EPSL will hold off until 7 or 8PM, after which it snows a couple inches by 11PM. While the amounts aren't as crazy, it seems more plausible that we pick up snow at that time of day instead of starting at 1PM. Whatcom County Special, baby! 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 We could have a 5-7 stretch of below normal temps coming up. No doubt we will pay for this in early January. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Looks like the talk of a 12/18 AR event wasn’t really all that off. Seems I remember some discussion of the possibility as early as the beginning of the month. Not bad for a three week forecast. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, Jesse said: Looks like the talk of a 12/18 AR event wasn’t really all that off. Seems I remember some discussion of the possibility as early as the beginning of the month. Not bad for a three week forecast. Aged a lot better than that mid-month arctic blast. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: We could have a 5-7 stretch of below normal temps coming up. No doubt we will pay for this in early January. This post is infuriating but very likely correct. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Ahhh yes.... nothing feels better than a late December morning 50 degrees. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, Deweydog said: This post is infuriating but very likely correct. The rent in your head is starting to get pretty steep. #gentrification Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Cloud said: Ahhh yes.... nothing feels better than a late December morning 50 degrees. Team 50˚F Rain has an incredible winning record! Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, Jesse said: The rent in your head is starting to get pretty steep. #gentrification Do you think early January is gonna be cold? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 im above 300 feet its more than likely i will see at least some snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 The professional mets seem to be fairly dismissive of what many operational model runs are saying about lowland snow. From this morning’s forecast discussion: Quote The upper trough and cold front will bring colder air. Some ensemble members show rain changing to snow for a few hours in the afternoon and evening for the lowlands but most solutions keep rain for the lowlands. The possibility for a little lowland snow will need to be monitored but for now the forecast will be for just rain with snow levels falling to 1000-1500 feet Monday afternoon and evening. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Some models show the precip ending in the immediate Seattle area by late afternoon or early evening... like the GFS and the HRRR. The HRRR shows its done by the time it gets dark tomorrow. The ECMWF shows the main precip band just arriving around 5 p.m. in the Seattle area. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Interesting the 00z GFS para supported the OP GFS with lowland snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 25 minutes ago, Jesse said: Looks like the talk of a 12/18 AR event wasn’t really all that off. Seems I remember some discussion of the possibility as early as the beginning of the month. Not bad for a three week forecast. You're welcome 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Not the worst GFS run ever. Not super interesting either though. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, wxmet said: Interesting the 00z GFS para supported the OP GFS with lowland snow. Also showed me with 23 inches lol. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 50* and breezy SSW winds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 The HRDPS looks really good for Seattle this morning. I don't have any quality maps but looks like a solid 6-8 inches for everyone from south king county to Everett. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 6 minutes ago, Esquimalt said: Also showed me with 23 inches lol. If it’s going to replace the GFS we might be in trouble lol. UKMET 12z upped totals to around an inch in Seattle which seems somewhat realistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Just now, wxmet said: If it’s going to replace the GFS we might be in trouble lol. UKMET 12z upped totals to around an inch in Seattle which seems somewhat realistic. Yeah my totals are about 3 or 4 inches. Are you thinking the euro/gfs solution or the HRDPS/NAM/HRRR solution will pan out? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 A couple frogs making their rounds on FB. Thought of Dolt and Timmy. Perhaps you guys can add these into your inventory. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Just now, hawkstwelve said: Yeah this ain't happening. Pretty to look at though. It's believeable. Very strong deformation band moving south east. We haven't seen that previously but if it happens good for you guys. Obviously I would prefer the previous runs showing 8-14 inches in Vic, but you can't have it all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Esquimalt said: Yeah my totals are about 3 or 4 inches. Are you thinking the euro/gfs solution or the HRDPS/NAM/HRRR solution will pan out? Euro/GFS solution is way more likely. You always have to wonder if the hi-res models are picking up on something (especially in a dynamic environment like this) but I’ve been burned by that before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Yeah this ain't happening. Pretty to look at though. That would break a few branches here at home ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Just now, wxmet said: Euro/GFS solution is way more likely. You always have to wonder if the hi-res models are picking up on something (especially in a dynamic environment like this) but I’ve been burned by that before. Sometimes the unexpected happens. Every now and then an event over performs...but reality is telling me people in the lowlands below 500’ and outside the convergence zone wont see much tomorrow. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: It's pretty apparent NWS Seattle is writing off the models and doesn't think anything will happen. There isn't even a mention of the word 'snow' for the EPSL. Not even rain/snow mix. Sometimes those surprise events are the best though. Catch everyone off-guard, even pro mets. Kind of fun. I agree totally and I’m counting on this one to come through! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 27 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Do you think early January is gonna be cold? We just don’t know at this point. #infuriating 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, wxmet said: Euro/GFS solution is way more likely. You always have to wonder if the hi-res models are picking up on something (especially in a dynamic environment like this) but I’ve been burned by that before. The euro will be interesting to see this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: It's pretty apparent NWS Seattle is writing off the models and doesn't think anything will happen. There isn't even a mention of the word 'snow' for the EPSL zone forecast. Not even rain/snow mix. Sometimes those surprise events are the best though. Catch everyone off-guard, even pro mets. Kind of fun. Murphy’s Law says that makes it more likely that lowland snow will materialize. Of course, Murphy’s Law also applies to itself and says that Murphy’s Law cannot be usefully used as a predictive tool. So take your pick. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, Jginmartini said: A couple frogs making their rounds on FB. Thought of Dolt and Timmy. Perhaps you guys can add these into your inventory. The second one looks like the frog answer to Jack Nicholson at the end of The Shining. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 Just now, Jesse said: We just don’t know at this point. #infuriating Prepare for a lifetime of infuriation. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 20, 2020 Report Share Posted December 20, 2020 7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Yeah this ain't happening. Pretty to look at though. Port Angeles will do well. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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