December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[AbbyJr]

GFS not backing down on a major SSW event end of the month early January. In fact, timing has moved up a few days if I'm not mistaken? Thats good news. 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

4 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

GFS not backing down on a major SSW event end of the month early January. In fact, timing has moved up a few days if I'm not mistaken? Thats good news. 

 

Promising. Yep, timing has sped forward. Let's keep that trend going. Thanks for posting.

[wxmet]

Transition from rain to snow is always fun to track especially in these kind of setups. Checking obs waiting for the transition to occur and people giving up 3-4 hours before it’s suppose to happen. I suspect there will be a lot of panic on Monday.

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, bainbridgekid said:

Reminds me a little of a poor man's 2/5/17 . . .

 

 

Nice little event! 

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 0.52” as of 9:10...3.11” on the month. Up to our daily high of 50 currently too. 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Nice little event! 

We had 5” of snow during the epic patriots comeback of Super Bowl 51. I always refer to that event as the Super Bowl snowstorm. This event seems like it could be fairly similar like bainbridge said earlier. 

[jakeinthevalley]

31 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Who visits Phoenix in the Summer?

Every MLB team in the NL West, among others on the schedule

[TacomaWaWx]

17 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

WRF still looking good, especially North of Seattle and East of 405. Looks like it's liking about a 300 foot snow level.

 

Wouldn’t be shocked to see it verify just like that. 

[GHweatherChris]

And....

Next.

[TT-SEA]

30 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Tim.

No way.   I prefer 70s and 80s.     We try not to leave home much in the summer.   

[bainbridgekid]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

We had 5” of snow during the epic patriots comeback of Super Bowl 51. I always refer to that event as the Super Bowl snowstorm. This event seems like it could be fairly similar like bainbridge said earlier. 

Major Superbowl snowstorms here in both 2017 and 2019.

In 2017 I had 5 straight hours of nonsticking 33 degree snow and it finally started to stick right as the game was ending. Ended up with 5" that night. That was also the night Jim got hammered with like 10" after being completely shut out during the day while it snowed everywhere around him.

Just to be clear, that was like Monday's potential storm on steroids.

[wxmet]

GFS ensemble mean is almost on top of the operational with the low position with a good amount of members taking a southern track.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

We had 5” of snow during the epic patriots comeback of Super Bowl 51. I always refer to that event as the Super Bowl snowstorm. This event seems like it could be fairly similar like bainbridge said earlier. 

Our 2-25-19 event was the ‘post-Oscars after party hangover’ snowstorm.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

9 minutes ago, jakeinthevalley said:

Every MLB team in the NL West, among others on the schedule

Almost every NL team and 3 AL teams in a normal season. Assuming the interleague games are mid-loaded into late June.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, wxmet said:

GFS ensemble mean is almost on top of the operational with the low position with a good amount of members taking a southern track.

Appears to be trending towards a weaker solution. I wonder how far south this could ultimately end up.

[SouthHillFrosty]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Nice little event! 

Ended up with about 9-10 inches that storm. Snow stuck around for about a week if I remember right. The local school district didn’t have school for a week I think! 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Major Superbowl snowstorms here in both 2017 and 2019.

In 2017 I had 5 straight hours of nonsticking 33 degree snow and it finally started to stick right as the game was ending. Ended up with 5" that night. That was also the night Jim got hammered with like 10" after being completely shut out during the day while it snowed everywhere around him.

I remember it started snowing during the Super Bowl in 2019 and we did not see our lawn again for 6 weeks.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

52F and pouring. Pleasant night on the porch.

[bainbridgekid]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I remember it started snowing during the Super Bowl in 2019 and we did not see our lawn again for 6 weeks.

Steelers/Bengals MNF is pretty much the same thing, right?

[TT-SEA]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

Steelers/Bengals MNF is pretty much the same thing, right?

Guessing my satellite dish will not be functioning during that game... heavy, wet snow is the worst for that.

[AbbyJr]

26 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Promising. Yep, timing has sped forward. Let's keep that trend going. Thanks for posting.

The real question is whether or not a major SSW would actually translate into a cold and snowy pattern in the PNW? I'd say the odds are in our favour given we are in a -ENSO/+QBO/Low solar state.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1.5 past 12 runs. As I was mentioning to @bainbridgekid earlier, regarding the strength and track of the low on Monday there have been 3 distinct trends. Weaker/south, Stronger/north, and back to weaker/south. It almost appears we're heading back to the initial trend with the low ending up much further south over Oregon. I'm not saying that's what will occur, but it's interesting to see how we have recently been trending back to a weaker/southern solution.

[Esquimalt]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS Day 1.5 past 12 runs. As I was mentioning to @bainbridgekid earlier, regarding the strength and track of the low on Monday there have been 3 distinct trends. Weaker/south, Stronger/north, and back to weaker/south. It almost appears we're heading back to the initial trend with the low ending up much further south over Oregon. I'm not saying that's what will occur, but it's interesting to see how we have recently been trending back to a weaker/southern solution.

What the euro does tonight will be very important.  Stays similar to the 18Z, probably a good indication that B.C. will get hit. If it goes towards the 12Z solution, Washington stands to benefit the most

[jakerepp]

Abby Acone did the KOMO writeup this evening and summed it up pretty nicely. But no snow icon on the iPhone weather app yet, so nobody will notice

[The Swamp]

46 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

GFS not backing down on a major SSW event end of the month early January. In fact, timing has moved up a few days if I'm not mistaken? Thats good news. 

 

do you work for KOMO?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

[TacomaWaWx]

35 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Major Superbowl snowstorms here in both 2017 and 2019.

In 2017 I had 5 straight hours of nonsticking 33 degree snow and it finally started to stick right as the game was ending. Ended up with 5" that night. That was also the night Jim got hammered with like 10" after being completely shut out during the day while it snowed everywhere around him.

Just to be clear, that was like Monday's potential storm on steroids.

That one was pretty awesome. The transition was more rapid here. Went from cold rain to sticking snow within an hour. Super Bowl has been a good time for snow the last couple years! We had a little bit of snow the day after the super bowl this February as well. 

[FroYoBro]

Pdx is going to get a new highest low on the day with 49. The record is 51 for tomorrow. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF shows temps near 60 here again at noon on Monday like some previous runs... the 12Z run showed temps in the 30s at that the same here.     Could just be timing though. 

[wxmet]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Uh...

LOL.

[The Swamp]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 2

looks like all the cold is digging off shore down the coast leaving us in SW flow?

[MossMan]

Good thing I didn’t tell my wife and kids yet...Looks like a model pullback has started. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

Whatcom County Special? I will note that the 18Z Euro agrees. Yes, please!

[jakerepp]

Just now, MossMan said:

Good thing I didn’t tell my wife and kids yet...Looks like a model pullback has started. 

My most favorite of holiday traditions; the rug pull!

[The Swamp]

Just now, MossMan said:

Good thing I didn’t tell my wife and kids yet...Looks like a model pullback has started. 

rug pull alert, rug pull alert......

[Gradient Keeper]

Where does the EURO track the low?

[wxmet]

The ECMWF doesn't have a clue. 12z the low was in central Washington and now it's near the Canadian border.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Low went north.  Starts off north of Seattle and heads NE into BC

[bainbridgekid]

Euro is significantly North. Brings the low through about Bellingham which would leave the Puget Sound region more reliant on CZ action Monday evening/night for snowfall.