Gradient Keeper Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Last night's GEFS starting with day 17. Imagine a SSW event with this 500mb pattern With just a little amplification that turns into a cold, possibly historic pattern. Here we go! C'MON!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Just now, SouthHillFrosty said: Hey guys did you see [insert model that nobody has ever heard of]? It shows 3 feet of snow for everybody!! In what timeframe? I haven't checked the long range CFS lately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Dropped into the upper 40’s here this evening. Brrrr. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Radar has a sword penetrating Forks currently! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: RGEM 4mb weaker, 700mb Frontogenesis is weaker than the NAM. The 0z ICON is similar to the RGEM, perhaps slightly further north: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, FroYoBro said: Dropped into the upper 40’s here this evening. Brrrr. Crazy to think we could be seeing highs that are several degrees colder than this later on next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: It keeps it all as rain but there are some strong rates shown in there. 10 mm is almost .4 inches. If that was snow with a 10:1 ratio it would be 4in/hr rates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: It keeps it all as rain but there are some strong rates shown in there. None of the Canadian models seem very good with precipitation type for some reason, if the 850mb temps are below freezing at that point it will be snow in yellow-red areas near the low. I think they drop below freezing right after that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 14 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Last night's GEFS starting with day 17. Imagine a SSW event with this 500mb pattern And both the Euro, GFS, and GEFS predict a major SSW by early January. Winter is coming. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 00z is already noticably North at hour 6. 2 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwonder Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 11 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: With just a little amplification that turns into a cold, possibly historic pattern. Here we go! C'MON!!!! The pattern change is coming first week of January I think is going to be a winter to remember for cold and snow lovers alike 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Excited for the vigorous frontal passage tomorrow-- some heavy rain and gusty winds perhaps. 1 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 This is no good. HR 18 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 2mb stronger and a notch NW of the 18z. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 WHERE IS THE PANIC BUTTON Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Little stronger, little further north. Going to be a dynamic storm, that much is guaranteed. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 HR 24 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: This is no good. HR 18 Looks 2mb stronger and slightly further north, the dreaded last minute shift north. Not nearly as bad as the NAM up here, but we're right on the knive's edge. Still a bit of backwash snow further south though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Clear trend North the last 5 runs. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Front Ranger said: Little stronger, little further north. Going to be a dynamic storm, that much is guaranteed. Yeah, at the very least it'll be pretty fun to watch the sharp wind shift associated with the front. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 GFS caves to the ECMWF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Stronger means Norther. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Just now, bainbridgekid said: Clear trend North the last 5 runs. Yuck. 4 distinct trends the past 4 days. South, North, South, and back to the north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Pivotal not running, so have to rely on Tidbits 00z GFS Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 GFS is warmer at KSEA which is probably why it’s showing heavy rain instead of snow with a temps in the upper 30s. Brutal. I definitely need to move. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Really wanna hear from Phil on the SSW incoming!! The start of it to the end of it. I just keep seeing 384hr maps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 10 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: 2mb stronger and a notch NW of the 18z. All rain or snow still possible Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said: Really wanna hear from Phil on the SSW incoming!! The start of it to the end of it. I just keep seeing 384hr maps. Right? it never seems to get any closer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 I just saw this on Pivotal [ (20 Dec 2020) An outage at one of our hosting providers is resulting in missing images this evening. This should be resolved soon. ] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 9 minutes ago, wxmet said: GFS is warmer at KSEA which is probably why it’s showing heavy rain instead of snow with a temps in the upper 30s. Brutal. I definitely need to Typical Western Washington. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Super super low quality photo, but definite cut back on the models tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 The coming SSW is so abnormally anomalous the computation of data has crashed the models tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 The 0z HRDPS looks similar to the 0z GFS for strength/positioning of the low: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Just now, VancouverIslandSouth said: The 0z HRDPS looks similar to the 0z GFS for strength/positioning of the low: Looks too north for snow for me but perfect for you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 20 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said: Really wanna hear from Phil on the SSW incoming!! The start of it to the end of it. I just keep seeing 384hr maps. Someone else asked him that. He replied: Lol, well it’s moving up in timing. It’s just more of the event has entered the picture. The blocky, highly meridional pattern you mention is directly associated with the tropical forcing/poleward EP flux vectors behind the SSW, so I don’t think you can really separate them. I view the SSW is sort of an inflection point, or fork in the road, where its occurrence (or lack thereof) can/will have significant impacts for months afterwards following the same trigger. For instance, had the SSW in January 2019 failed, February 2019 outcome likely would have been very different..probably would’ve been an ordinary, canonical niño February. Deposition of momentum/Dt would have been radically different. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 I have to say Whatcom country/Victoria/Vancouver is long over due to be nailed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, seattleweatherguy said: Looks too north for snow for me but perfect for you? The totals look very similar to the GFS with at least a couple inches down there as well: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 21, 2020 Report Share Posted December 21, 2020 Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Posted by Dave,
10 reactions
Go to this post
Posted by Christensen87,
2 reactions
Go to this post
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.