December 2020 Weather Observations for the PNW

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

All of a sudden the Nam is the trusted model hahahaha!!!

[Cloud]

If anything, I think there is a good chance for some picturesque fat flakes in the air tomorrow to get people in the Christmas mood. Accumulating snow tbd!

[wxmet]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

All of a sudden the Nam is the trusted model hahahaha!!!

It's really cut back on the Kitsap totals huh?

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Live by the map, die by the map.

Facts

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

All of a sudden the Nam is the trusted model hahahaha!!!

Probably about as trusted as the GFS these days? Idk haha 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Bwahahahahahahahahaha!

Rug pull! Team rain wins again!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Needless to say, there's a lot riding on tonight's upcoming 0z model runs.

[Blizzard777]

13 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Here's the 3km NAM through 7PM. It cut way back on totals for just about everyone compared to 18z.

Pretty much the entire event for King County is between 3-6PM.

I think this needs to go through the printer ink one more time

Booooooooo

[Cloud]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Bwahahahahahahahahaha!

Rug pull! Team rain wins again!

Downvote this to oblivion now!!

[Tyler Mode]

The most trusted model is the one that shows the most snow...duhhhh

And the models don't know what's going on out in la la land, unless it's showing cold/snow.

Weenie post sorry

[wxmet]

NWS Seattle must have cracked open a bottle of Champagne after that NAM run

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Downvote this to oblivion now!!

Sorry, your downvotes won’t make it snow.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

A small area will get hammered and most get conversational snow.

[Gradient Keeper]

In analyzing the past 4 NAM 3km runs from 4-7 AM Monday specifically looking at 700-500mb Frontogenesis, Temp Advection, Winds, Heights, and Cyclonic Vorticity, it appears tonight's run features stronger 700mb winds ~SSW 60 KT along the exit region of the trough following the 292dam contour digging a bit more sharply. This coincides with more consolidated Cyclonic Vorticity and lift giving the wave development into the surface low a bit more punch. The 700mb wind field itself is far more expansive along and ahead the sharpening cold front offshore. The weaker solutions along the 292dam height contour did not feature as sharp of a 'dip' and thus the Cyclonic energy was a bit more stretched hampering development towards the central Washington Coast.

[Requiem]

1 hour ago, OysterPrintout said:

yeah hills tend to do ok in the marginal setups. March I had about 15 minutes of a great snow globe onto wet pavement which has by and large been the modus operandi in the city center since Jan 2017. Some dustings in 2019.

The last event of any real sticking snow was 2/20 2018 which had had 4" at the airport but I got about 1-2" in Goose Hollow 

Hoping we can all get buried with snow come January-- fingers crossed!

[wxmet]

1 minute ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

A small area will get hammered and most get conversational snow.

How many variations of the saying the same thing can you come up with?

[Cloud]

Welp. Local mets like Scott and Morgan seems to think is a >300-500’ event as they’re starting to get a clearer picture somewhat. As expected. 

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Sorry, your downvotes won’t make it snow.

D**n it! I was under the impression that it would. Stupid reversal mind trick. 

[wxmet]

1 minute ago, Cloud said:

Welp. Local mets like Scott and Morgan seems to think is a >300-500’ event as they’re starting to get a clearer picture somewhat. As expected. 

The NAM gave them a clear picture? 

[Blizzard777]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

In analyzing the past 4 NAM 3km runs from 4-7 AM Monday specifically looking at 700-500mb Frontogenesis, Temp Advection, Winds, Heights, and Cyclonic Vorticity, it appears tonight's run features stronger 700mb winds ~SSW 60 KT along the exit region of the trough following the 292dam contour digging a bit more sharply. This coincides with more consolidated Cyclonic Vorticity and lift giving the wave development into the surface low a bit more punch. The 700mb wind field itself is far more expansive along and ahead the sharpening cold front offshore. The weaker solutions along the 292dam height contour did not feature as sharp of a 'dip' and thus the Cyclonic energy was a bit more stretched hampering development towards the central Washington Coast.

So it’s not the ink cartridge just being low on color ink   

 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

2 minutes ago, wxmet said:

How many variations of the saying the same thing can you come up with?

Lived it for 15 years.  It is what will happen.  This setup happened a hundred times while I was there.  

A convergence zone in a small area will be what makes it snow.  Widespread puget sound snow just isn't going to happen, those models are on crack.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 minutes ago, wxmet said:

It's really cut back on the Kitsap totals huh?

I haven't been sold on this one at all. But I also recognize how dynamic this is. Going to be interesting!!

[Omegaraptor]

1.03” at HIO makes today the first day since 2/12/19 with over an inch of rain at HIO.

[Gradient Keeper]

1 minute ago, Jginmartini said:

So it’s not the ink cartridge just being low on color ink   

 

It could be, and that would be more sensible than my analysis.

00z NAM (Christmas Day) in 119 hours 5 minutes

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, wxmet said:

The NAM gave them a clear picture? 

They’re actually very reliant on the NAM as far as I know in the past. So maybe that’s what they’re going with. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Should I go into full weenie mode after the 00z gfs or the 00z euro. Asking for a friend 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

GOLU model will be the best model, IMO.

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, OysterPrintout said:

yeah hills tend to do ok in the marginal setups. March I had about 15 minutes of a great snow globe onto wet pavement which has by and large been the modus operandi in the city center since Jan 2017. Some dustings in 2019.

The last event of any real sticking snow was 2/20 2018 which had had 4" at the airport but I got about 1-2" in Goose Hollow 

Yeah, it's been pretty lame here since February 2018. I had 2.5" total in 2018-19 and somehow had more with 3" last winter, but there hasn't been a daylong event since 2/20/18. I know most of Washington, Columbia, and Cowlitz counties are a similar story.

[Gradient Keeper]

King....................

EURO, GFS, GEM, UKMET, HRRR, CMCE, GEFS, EPS, RAP, HRDPS, HRW WRF-ARW, HRW NMMB, HRW WRF-NSSL, WRF, NAM

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

King....................

EURO, GFS, GEM, UKMET, HRRR, CMCE, GEFS, EPS, RAP, HRDPS, HRW WRF-ARW, HRW NMMB, HRW WRF-NSSL, WRF, NAM

GFSv16, CFS, IBM GRAF, JMA, KMA, NOGAPS

[Phil]

3 hours ago, MossMan said:

It does? I need to take a look! 
Anyway the damage is done, equipment is staged, and my wife just found out. 

What’s with the ramp?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

What’s with the ramp?

He likes to ride the mower into the house. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Very rainy out there. 54/48 for the day. Currently 51F.

[wxmet]

31 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said:

Lived it for 15 years.  It is what will happen.  This setup happened a hundred times while I was there.  

A convergence zone in a small area will be what makes it snow.  Widespread puget sound snow just isn't going to happen, those models are on crack.

Could you point me to the years and dates since this has happened so frequently? I would love to take a look.

[MossMan]

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

What’s with the ramp?

A few months after buying the place we converted the entertainment room into a MIL and moved my mom in. She had a senior blind dog so we added that ramp for them. 

[Deweydog]

27 minutes ago, Phil said:

What’s with the ramp?

Have you ever seen a weenie try to take the stairs?

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Last night's GEFS starting with day 17.  Imagine a SSW event with this 500mb pattern

 

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 0z RGEM is further north, but not as far north as the NAM:

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Hey guys did you see [insert model that nobody has ever heard of]? It shows 3 feet of snow for everybody!!

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

The 0z RGEM is further north, but not as far north as the NAM:

 

RGEM 4mb weaker, 700mb Frontogenesis is weaker than the NAM.