SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: The 12z GFS once again ends in a good place. The pattern is locking with above normal heights over the GOA. The 12z ensemble is pretty chilly for early January as well. Maybe things are coming together. Sometimes I wonder if we are looking at the same thing. The pattern at the end of the run does not scream potential. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Next, next and next. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Sometimes I wonder if we are looking at the same thing. The pattern at the end of the run does not scream potential. When Jim is in positive mode... everything has potential. 3 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Just now, TT-SEA said: When Jim is in positive mode... everything has potential. Speaking of potential...The 12z EURO was kind of nutz. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Kind of a weirdly warm day. Looks like pretty much everyone in the valley should touch 50 today. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 29 minutes ago, MossMan said: The big one is coming! November and December 2021 will be wild 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Speaking of potential...The 12z EURO was kind of nutz. Pretty stormy later in run... but way too much GOA troughing. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: When Jim is in positive mode... everything has potential. Pretty much why I just ignore everything he says. 1 1 1 2 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Pretty stormy later in run... but way too much GOA troughing. THE GOA troughing is a given at this point through the 10th. May as well pile up the mountain snow. You and I could see some decent wet snow at face value. I understand this is dangerously close to developing into the winter from hell for you. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: THE GOA troughing is a given at this point through the 10th. May as well pile up the mountain snow. You and I could see some decent wet snow at face value. I understand this is dangerously close to developing into the winter from hell for you. I don't mind a stormy pattern with lots of mountain snow in January. Its been a pretty tame winter so far. I would just like too see us score a genuinely cold and snowy pattern in January and that pattern has way too much GOA troughing. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 10 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: November and December 2021 will be wild I think the table will be set pretty well for a solidly front-loaded bag of goodies. Question is how many of us will still be alive to see it... 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 The end of the 12Z EPS still shows a huge GOA trough right where we need to see a big ridge... its the opposite of the pattern we need. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I don't mind a stormy pattern with lots of mountain snow in January. Its been a pretty tame winter so far. I would just like too see us score a genuinely cold and snowy pattern in January and that pattern has way too much GOA troughing. Something between January 2000 and 2008 is probably where we are headed. The models have performed well this season. There is no reason to believe we will see anything different than that at least through the first half of the month. Overall I think snow pack will end up decent and you and I will probably see near to above average amounts of snow over the next 3-4 months. Lowlands could score with a low tracking to the south here and there. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 3 hours ago, TT-SEA said: 00Z EPS... too much GOA troughing for my liking. They call it a jet extension for a reason. It’s what happens after the jet extension that is interesting. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, Phil said: They call it a jet extension for a reason. It’s what happens after the jet extension that is interesting. My money is on about 7-10 days of west coast ridging and then another jet extension. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, Phil said: They call it a jet extension for a reason. It’s what happens after the jet extension that is interesting. The 2008 progression, while a little generic, seems pretty reasonable. Westerlies eventually abate and lead to some initial ridging followed by retrogression potential. 2 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 44 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Sometimes I wonder if we are looking at the same thing. The pattern at the end of the run does not scream potential. I was thinking the same thing. The end of it sucks. Granted it’s 384 hrs out but good grief Jim, quit spreading LIES!! It better short and mid range compared to clown range. Reality is it’s tons warmer in the PNW at the end of the run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Looks like a classic La Nina, especially historically for January. Like was said above, a surface low or 2 going south can definitely score in most locations. I do believe the Thanksgiving storm last year that bombed out was embedded in the northwesterly flow about 12 hours after a departing "warm" trough. Granted there was more cold to work with on that one, we could still get some cold to pool in the next 2 weeks, especially with some snow cover possible in the basin in that timeframe. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 7 minutes ago, Deweydog said: The 2008 progression, while a little generic, seems pretty reasonable. Westerlies eventually abate and lead to some initial ridging followed by retrogression potential. Andrew is not on board. However I do like his comment about lows tracking to the south which would throw the lowlands a bone here and there. I have had some good snows with those setups. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 January 2008 was a solidly chilly month. A full 9F colder at SLE than January 2019. https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=2008&month=1&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 14 minutes ago, Phil said: They call it a jet extension for a reason. It’s what happens after the jet extension that is interesting. When do you anticipate the models will start seeing what happens "after the jet extension", and what would that look like? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: Andrew is not on board. However I do like his comment about lows tracking to the south which would throw the lowlands a bone here and there. I have had some good snows with those setups. I wouldn't say I am "not on board." I see no signs of an arctic blast. I do see potential for very interesting weather. I feel like we may have used up our late February/early March window the last few years, but we might want to keep an eye on that period too. The January 10-15th period is looking a little meh at this point, but that could still change wildly. But at face value what the GFS shows at hour 384 is pretty awful...But probably means about as much as an arctic blast in that timeframe. 3 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: January 2008 was a solidly chilly month. A full 9F colder at SLE than January 2019. https://climate.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=2008&month=1&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0 Lol that’s not saying much considering January was a torch that year. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Wow! That 12z EURO run was insane. After Day 4.5 to 5 it looks like we may be going into an incredibly active pattern. I believe that is now 4-5 consecutive EURO runs showing a full blown Nina. I would like to see 2-3 more runs to increase confidence for that. I'm thankful we have some fun model riding ahead. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I wouldn't say I am "not on board." I see no signs of an arctic blast. I do see potential for very interesting weather. I feel like we may have used up our late February/early March window, but we might want to keep an eye on that period too. That statement has no basis in reality. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Just now, TheNewCulverJosh said: That statement has no basis in reality. But the conference call did right? Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: But the conference call did right? Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 7 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said: I was thinking the same thing. The end of it sucks. Granted it’s 384 hrs out but good grief Jim, quit spreading LIES!! It better short and mid range compared to clown range. Reality is it’s tons warmer in the PNW at the end of the run. So much for not following the weather for a couple weeks, lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Just now, TheNewCulverJosh said: Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you. You gotta admit, that was pretty good... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: You gotta admit, that was pretty good... It has been repeated ad nauseam. By the same people. Merry Christmas to you as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: It has been repeated ad nauseam. By the same people. Merry Christmas to you as well. Are you doing Zoom meetings now? That is the in thing this year! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 13 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Lol that’s not saying much considering January was a torch that year. Okay how about this. It is tied with 2013 for the 2nd coldest January of the 21st Century. 4th coldest in the past 40 years. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Is it time to start the "jet suppression" chants? I think so. 18z GFS in 57 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Is it time to start the "jet suppression" chants? I think so. 18z GFS in 57 minutes Would be nice if we had a suppressed jet with a load of arctic air in BC. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHawks Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 I might be wrong but appears to me that we do not need a "Arctic" blast to score a some measurable snow in the Puget Sound. Maybe all we can ask for is a Frazier River outflow to tap into marginal cold air. As far as Portland is concerned, I recall a big snow event with cold air from coming from the Columbia gorge. I would love to have a top tier Arctic blast but for whatever reason, it seems to be too difficult a task for the Pacific NW. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 Just now, SnowHawks said: I might be wrong but appears to me that we do not need a "Arctic" blast to score a some measurable snow in the Puget Sound. Maybe all we can ask for is a Frazier River outflow to tap into marginal cold air. As far as Portland is concerned, I recall a big snow event with cold air from coming from the Columbia gorge. I would love to have a top tier Arctic blast but for whatever reason, it seems to be too difficult a task for the Pacific NW. If the system on the 21st had tracked about 100 miles further south, Seattle would have gotten more than just a few flurries. 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Would be nice if we had a suppressed jet with a load of arctic air in BC. Of course, but this time of year we don't need much more than a low to the south and offshore flow. We don't need 9 degrees, just 32-30 works! C'MON!!!! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Of course, but this time of year we don't need much more than a low to the south and offshore flow. We don't need 9 degrees, just 32-30 works! C'MON!!!! As the recent Solstice Special illustrated, for those of us far enough north to benefit from the set-up. 2 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 27, 2020 Report Share Posted December 27, 2020 I always go back to the system that went further south than modeled and came ashore right at the mouth of the Columbia back in November of 1996...It was supposed to be a quick slushy half inch of overrunning snow before transitioning to rain...Well that transition never happened and instead we had north winds screaming down past Seattle and I got several inches of lovely snow. 3 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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