MossMan Posted January 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Very light rain currently and 41 degrees. .02” so far on the day, 2.83” for the month. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 5, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Baby steps continue... 1 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 It's going mainstream: The polar vortex is splitting in two, which may lead to weeks of wild winter weather (msn.com) Glad I bought natural gas stock last week... Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 9 hours ago, Kolk1604 said: Is that why it's so warm? Surface temps near 60 in Portland and mid 50s in the I5 corridor... Yuck The sort of sucky mild wintertime ridging that feels like it has become increasingly common in recent years. Blecch. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: A brief break this morning in this very gloomy period... There was a window in the overcast to my east where some color showed, but nothing like that. You win in the sunrise department today! Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 8 hours ago, dolt said: To put the suckiness factor into context - I'm in my forties. To the best of my knowledge, it has never snowed on my birthday. On January fukking 20th, the middle of winter. I've lived in the Willamette Valley my entire life other than one year in Salmon Creek. There have been a couple of close calls, but snow piles were the closest I've come to a white birthday. That sucks. I’ve had far better luck on mine; even west of the Cascades I’ve scored twice. When the pandemic is over, you need to start planning on celebrating your birthday in Bend or Sisters. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 7 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said: It hasn't on mine either...however my birthday is in May tho Moving to Colorado or Wyoming would fix that problem. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Sweet sunrise in Seattle this AM. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 hours ago, Phil said: You think ensemble means will adequately capture a discontinuous retrogression that is still ~ 2 weeks away? The fact we’ve seen the LR signal transition from raging Pacific jet to legitimate NPAC blocking in 3 days (let alone for retrogression of said blocking) speaks for something, IMO. Nothing is ever guaranteed, but this is more than your typical extended range vacillation. Solid high latitude blocking signal emerging in the long models in the last day or so. This looks legit. It's hard to imagine anybody not liking the trends. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Got a glimpse of the sunrise this morning on the way to work and it was spectacular. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, AbbyJr said: Solid high latitude blocking signal emerging in the long models in the last day or so. This looks legit. It's hard to imagine anybody not liking the trends. Except obviously those who find bad in everything 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, Timmy said: Except obviously those who find bad in everything Wont be disappointed. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 The pattern the models are showing for next week is a torch if I have ever seen one. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: The pattern the models are showing for next week is a torch if I have ever seen one. The night is always darkest just before the dawn 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Canadian once again goes epic with the ridge... 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 30 minutes ago, Timmy said: Except obviously those who find bad in everything Why do you hate Tiger so much??? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 The 12z gfs has some ground to make up 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Another very mild morning, low of just 42. Sunrise was pretty though. Looks like a beautiful morning on the Cascade passes with temps below freezing and several inches of new snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 13 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Canadian once again goes epic with the ridge... It’s been pretty interesting to see such a strong Pacific blocking signal come out of nowhere in the models the last 24-36 hours. At least things are starting to shake up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Headed to bend Thursday - Monday, hoping so see some snow fall 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, Timmy said: The 12z gfs has some ground to make up It's almost comical how bad these runs are. Part of me does wonder if a 1989 style payback is coming. What's even funnier is Phil is going to say this pattern looks fantastic! 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Jesse said: It’s been pretty interesting to see such a strong Pacific blocking signal come out of nowhere in the models the last 24-36 hours. At least things are starting to shake up. I wouldn’t quite say it popped up out of nowhere. The ensembles have been hinting at it the possibility for a few days, but yeah... The “warmer” versions would certainly break the positive anomaly monotony. Down side to a prolific western ridge is that history tells us the retrogression path, which seems likely, is often quite a bit slower and less prolific compared to big pattern breakers. Still should be a much more interesting second half of the month either way. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: It's almost comical how bad these runs are. Part of me does wonder if a 1989 style payback is coming. What's even funnier is Phil is going to say this pattern looks fantastic! 12z GFS was definitely a step backwards, Pacific takes longer to shut off and then the wave train remains only favorable for the East. Aleutian low even makes a comeback at the end! We're obviously going to see a lot more shuffling around. 25th or later still feels right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, BLI snowman said: 12z GFS was definitely a step backwards, Pacific takes longer to shut off and then the wave train remains only favorable for the East. Aleutian low even makes a comeback at the end! We're obviously going to see a lot more shuffling around. 25th or later still feels right. Well for any Arctic blast we need a warning shot first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 43F and cloudy. 1.75" of rain on the month so far. Nice to see us above normal to this point. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: 43F and cloudy. 1.75" of rain on the month so far. Nice to see us above normal to this point. Probably not above average much longer with the west coast death ridge making a comeback! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Hard to believe it’s already the 5th! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, Deweydog said: I wouldn’t quite say it popped up out of nowhere. The ensembles have been hinting at it the possibility for a few days, but yeah... The “warmer” versions would certainly break the positive anomaly monotony. Down side to a prolific western ridge is that history tells us the retrogression path, which seems likely, is often quite a bit slower and less prolific compared to big pattern breakers. Still should be a much more interesting second half of the month either way. Oh you know what I meant. I'm just glad to see some sort of progression that looks to break us away from the January 2006 zonal torch fest pack this early in the game. What happens from there is of course still very much up in the air. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Probably not above average much longer with the west coast death ridge making a comeback! The ol' west coast warm finger on the way. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Ole' Mark flexing his white privilege, and polishing his forks today. 1 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Jesse said: Oh you know what I meant. I'm just glad to see some sort of progression that looks to break us away from the January 2006 zonal torch fest pack this early in the game. What happens from there is of course still very much up in the air. Yeah the good thing is setups like January 2006 are pretty rare. Great if you like copious amounts of valley rain/high mountain snow but it’s like watching paint not dry. Most of these early January torches tend to progress toward some strong western ridging at some point. Only fly in the ointment right now is the fact this pattern is very much AL-driven. Even the upcoming ridging appears to be dictated entirely by it, at least at the moment. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 So the SSW is reversing itself? Not sure what this means. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 It is flat out amazing how much snow this d6 cat will push!. It will just idle it's way through 3 feet of snow and not even breath hard. My daughter is 5 feet tall for reference. 7 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 21 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: 12z GFS was definitely a step backwards, Pacific takes longer to shut off and then the wave train remains only favorable for the East. Aleutian low even makes a comeback at the end! We're obviously going to see a lot more shuffling around. 25th or later still feels right. I'd keep more of an eye on the ensembles. 1 1 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Perhaps I just haven't been paying close enough attention, but I don't think I've ever noticed that wording on a high wind warning before. Second to last sentence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, Front Ranger said: I'd keep more of an eye on the ensembles. You are chock full of wisdom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 Just now, Jesse said: You are chock full of wisdom. You never post ensembles for me anymore. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 minute ago, North_County said: Perhaps I just haven't been paying close enough attention, but I don't think I've ever noticed that wording on a high wind warning before. Second to last sentence. 60 mph gusts frequently rip the second stories of homes clean off. Stay safe!!! 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, AlTahoe said: So the SSW is reversing itself? Not sure what this means. The complete rest of his tweet. https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1346499533904236545?s=20 At this rate, it may just be setting up for an extremely cool if not cold spring. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 5, 2021 Report Share Posted January 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, AlTahoe said: So the SSW is reversing itself? Not sure what this means. Low solar. It just means the SSW is having a major impact. The "reversal" in the stratosphere is to be expected. 2 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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