Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 4 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Day 7 Hmmm.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: My apologies, I will temper my excitement in the future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: That's different than the one posted above by Acer. Anyone know why? I don't just mean this one only shows temps and not precip. I mean the temps are different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Day 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: That's different than the one posted above by Acer. Anyone know why? I don't just mean this one only shows temps and not precip. I mean the temps are different. You are right. The temps are different. Strange. I like my version better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 45 minutes ago, Acer said: Ensembles just take my breath away. The coldest member comes in at -5. Brrrr. Briefly touching -5˚C at the 850 hPa level for a day or two, then warming up? Color me underwhelmed. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 14 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Looks like the average is -5C? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Day 9'er 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Day 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 15 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: That's different than the one posted above by Acer. Anyone know why? I don't just mean this one only shows temps and not precip. I mean the temps are different. The ensembles Acer posted the run had not yet completed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 That Euro run was a letdown. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just now, Front Ranger said: That Euro run was a letdown. Understated but effective. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: The ensembles Acer posted the run had not yet completed. Thanks, I see that. Didn't know those came out before the entire run was done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: The ensembles Acer posted the run had not yet completed. I guess. It looked kind of like a hybrid near the end. Either way they sucked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 ECMWF says what Pacific blocking? Just keeps it very progressive... transient ridges and troughs. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Yeah EURO a bit progressive. I wonder how the EPS shakes out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Day 10 ECMWF looks great...for an East coast storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Up to 5.45" of rain on the month. 1.16" today. Still coming down out there. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Haven’t had any rain since early this morning turned out to be a decent day. 0.30” this morning to hit 4.30” on the month. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 In 40 minutes, PDX will have spent the first 144 hours of the year above 40 degrees, just like 2020. It had only happened once before (2010). 2 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deweydog said: In 40 minutes, PDX will have spent the first 144 hours of the year above 40 degrees, just like 2020. It had only happened once before (2010). We haven’t gone below 40 yet this month either! Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 EPS similar to the 12Z EPS. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 EPS is more of the same. Maybe a touch warmer and a touch messier with the ridge between days 11-13 but still gets to the same place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 20 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: EPS similar to the 12Z EPS. Not bad ends up very similar with the GEFS, GEPS. I'm just eager to see models in about 3 days when I think they will have a bit better handle on the pattern change. It is encouraging though that we're quite close to a big time cold pattern. 12z GFS in 7 hours 24 minutes 12z ECMWF in 9 hours 39 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 I am off. No night shift for me tonight. Rooting for a solid 6z GFS OP, GEFS. C'MON!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 So... next. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Insomnia has made me do exactly what I said I wouldn't do... The fantasy range on the 06z could be going nuts. -NAO block bridge? I'll post maps soon if the pretty colors appear. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Okay so the 06z is just going to bridge a -PNA and -NAO block to send a polar gyre right over the NW. Stupid run. Meteorologically speaking, it's a fascinatingly dynamic setup. One we haven't seen since the early 90's. Pictures soon. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Pattern gets a bit messy as the block turns into a phallic shape but.... Western Canada gets Kold with a K, and the jet shuts off completely. Nearly gives something special. Fun and pretty. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Here is the block at its best configuration for a prototypical PNW lowland snowfall pattern. 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Just woke up and checked the 6z GEFS. Real potential on this run. Day 12 (Past 4 runs) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Currently 42 degrees. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 06z GEFS says, "Pacific jet? What Pacific jet?" And great agreement from the 00Z EPS around that time frame. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Anyone seen Jim? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 7, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 17 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Anyone seen Jim? I figured he would have been back last night with how things are starting to look in the extended. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 15 minutes ago, MossMan said: I figured he would have been back last night with how things are starting to look in the extended. I love Jim, but he needs to stay away until the events begin unfolding. I have become convinced over the past 1-2 years that he is the ultimate jinx. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Next week is looking like such a ridiculous torch. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Wow... the sun! 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 7, 2021 Report Share Posted January 7, 2021 Gfs pooped the bed 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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