SnarkyGoblin Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Even CNN is on the SSW bandwagon: https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/07/weather/polar-vortex-shifts-arctic-air-south/index.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 4 hours ago, SalemDuck said: Seems odd to have that consistent of a ridge without it ever amplifying but i’m sure it happens 2007-08. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: I think it was January 2010 when run after run models were forecasting a huge snow storm for Washington. Arctic air was already in place and a low was going to pass to our south drawing in more cold air and spewing moisture over the area. Unfortunately when the event drew closer, models shifted and it moved up the coast into Canada and warmed up us. Point being models can change in an instant. If it doesn't look good now, it might tomorrow or the next run. I think the optimism is warranted because with the ongoing SSW and disruption of the polar vortex, we just don't know what's going to happen. Models can flip in an instant. History shows this could be something good. I remember that. Not an uncommon scenario either. Those lows seem to want to move north quite often. I’d much prefer they come in near the mouth of the Columbia and sit there awhile before moving northeast. Keep being optimistic, it’s often contagious. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 I thought the big model letdown was January 2011 not 2010...or was there a letdown that month too? I remember January 2011 pretty well that was a really big letdown. We ended up with a little overrunning event with 1” of snow. However then we had February 2011 and got 7” of snow so all was forgiven. We also had November 2010 earlier that winter. 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 24 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: I think it was January 2010 when run after run models were forecasting a huge snow storm for Washington. Arctic air was already in place and a low was going to pass to our south drawing in more cold air and spewing moisture over the area. Unfortunately when the event drew closer, models shifted and it moved up the coast into Canada and warmed up us. Point being models can change in an instant. If it doesn't look good now, it might tomorrow or the next run. I think the optimism is warranted because with the ongoing SSW and disruption of the polar vortex, we just don't know what's going to happen. Models can flip in an instant. History shows this could be something good. I remember that well. It was the weekend of the Beastquake. That was on a Saturday, the NWS was taking about one of them greatest snowstorms in memory. Woke up Sunday morning and it all had changed It was the NAM that first saw the change and everyone dismissed it. So models do flip, but that flip was a small scale change as opposed to a flip in the overall hemispheric pattern. The details of this pattern change may or may not work for the PNW, but a major pattern change is all but assured. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: I thought the big model letdown was January 2011 not 2010...or was there a letdown that month too? I remember January 2011 pretty well that was a really big letdown. We ended up with a little overrunning event with 1” of snow. However then we had February 2011 and got 7” of snow so all was forgiven. We also had November 2010 earlier that winter. It was 2011, that's right. Same thing happened Christmas Eve 1983. Again a historic Seahawks day,, as they won their first ever playoff game that day. The NWS issued a WSW for overnight Christmas Eve to Christmas morning. 6-8 inches forecast. It rained. I am still bitter about it, even though I now live where a White Christmas happens more than 90% of the time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: It was 2011, that's right. Same thing happened Christmas Eve 1983. Again a historic Seahawks day,, as they won their first ever playoff game that day. The NWS issued a WSW for overnight Christmas Eve to Christmas morning. 6-8 inches forecast. It rained. I am still bitter about it, even though I now live where a White Christmas happens more than 90% of the time. Yeah even though we ended up with 12” of snow that winter...twice our normal average I was still pretty mad about the missed potential of January 2011. Besides that 2010-2011 was a great winter. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: It was 2011, that's right. Same thing happened Christmas Eve 1983. Again a historic Seahawks day,, as they won their first ever playoff game that day. The NWS issued a WSW for overnight Christmas Eve to Christmas morning. 6-8 inches forecast. It rained. I am still bitter about it, even though I now live where a White Christmas happens more than 90% of the time. Yeah thats right. I knew it was sometime early last decade. The unexpected ice storm came the following year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Serious question, is anything ever really going to start moving up in time? C’mon, we’ve been talking about 300hr+ maps for awhile now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 9 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said: Serious question, is anything ever really going to start moving up in time? C’mon, we’ve been talking about 300hr+ maps for awhile now. #March 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said: Serious question, is anything ever really going to start moving up in time? C’mon, we’ve been talking about 300hr+ maps for awhile now. Timing looks similar. And more model agreement. This was always a mid to late January event. Before it was in the weeklies like week 4 or so. Now it is end of week 2 that the pattern change starts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 12 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said: Serious question, is anything ever really going to start moving up in time? C’mon, we’ve been talking about 300hr+ maps for awhile now. Yes, a cold pattern will develop around mid-April then gradually will transition to persistent warm-frontal drizzle over much of Western Washington thru the 4th of July. Meanwhile, Oregon roasts. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Timing looks similar. And more model agreement. This was always a mid to late January event. Before it was in the weeklies like week 4 or so. Now it is end of week 2 that the pattern change starts. That’s not really true. We’ve been watching this pattern since way before Xmas. First it was mid December, then it was early to mid January, now it’s late January to early February. I think the only one to say mid to late January all along has been Phil. Kudos to him if it pans out. But the models ie ensembles have been showing this for weeks. It’s just not moving up in timing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just now, High Desert Mat? said: That’s not really true. We’ve been watching this pattern since way before Xmas. First it was mid December, then it was early to mid January, now it’s late January to early February. I think the only one to say mid to late January all along has been Phil. Kudos to him if it pans out. But the models ie ensembles have been showing this for weeks. It’s just not moving up in timing. It was more of the SSW that we were watching in December 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said: That’s not really true. We’ve been watching this pattern since way before Xmas. First it was mid December, then it was early to mid January, now it’s late January to early February. I think the only one to say mid to late January all along has been Phil. Kudos to him if it pans out. But the models ie ensembles have been showing this for weeks. It’s just not moving up in timing. Well you're taking about the weeklies. There wasn't any real support for it. This potential event has a real SSW event behind it, an event happening now. And it has model support, not just the weeklies. All the model ensembles runs that go to day 16 are starting to show it, and the long range GEFS has had it for quite awhile now. Big difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: It was more of the SSW that we were watching in December Yup. And the models were correct in showing a SSW evemt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 I have been calling the guys out on this 14+ day stuff all winter so far. It is still 14+ days today. Tells you all you need to know. Even the PNA isn't cooperating. They see a spaghetti chart that may or may not be heading negative and call it gospel. It isn't gospel, it is a spaghetti chart, one with low accuracy at that. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Josh and Matt are NOT on board. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Josh and Matt are NOT on board. Josh and Mat. Fixed it for ya. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Josh and Matt are NOT on board. That being said, there is crazy potential, but it just isn't being moved up yet. Members here are a lot like the mainstream media. Post the map ie; "story"of your preference, and try to will it into fruition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 The timing has been roughly January 18th for the Aleutian low to disappear and ridging to replace it for at least a week now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: That being said, there is crazy potential, but it just isn't being moved up yet. Members here are a lot like the mainstream media. Post the map ie; "story"of your preference, and try to will it into fruition. 14 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: I have been calling the guys out on this 14+ day stuff all winter so far. It is still 14+ days today. Tells you all you need to know. Even the PNA isn't cooperating. They see a spaghetti chart that may or may not be heading negative and call it gospel. It isn't gospel, it is a spaghetti chart, one with low accuracy at that. There was never any real model support for anything in December. Just the weeklies, but nothing else. No SSW event, no support within 16 days by the ensembles, etc. And the PNA goes negative in the EPS on 11 days, and the same with the GEFS. You could have snow falling at your house and will still deny that it is snowing. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 hour ago, Acer said: I remember that. Not an uncommon scenario either. Those lows seem to want to move north quite often. I’d much prefer they come in near the mouth of the Columbia and sit there awhile before moving northeast. Keep being optimistic, it’s often contagious. Right nothing better than a low stalling during an arctic outbreak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 9 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: There was never any real model support for anything in December. Just the weeklies, but nothing else. No SSW event, no support within 16 days by the ensembles, etc. And the PNA goes negative in the EPS on 11 days, and the same with the GEFS. You could have snow falling at your house and will still deny that it is snowing. Not true, many here were oohing and aahing about La La Land almost a month ago. Just being a realist here, not trying to start a flame war. I mean, if you want me to go back and pull stuff from the December thread I can. I just don't really have the time. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 29 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: I have been calling the guys out on this 14+ day stuff all winter so far. It is still 14+ days today. Tells you all you need to know. Even the PNA isn't cooperating. They see a spaghetti chart that may or may not be heading negative and call it gospel. It isn't gospel, it is a spaghetti chart, one with low accuracy at that. To be fair, yesterday's Euro and GEM were showing very promising patterns within 10 days. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Last nights GEFS hour 300 onward. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 13 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: To be fair, yesterday's Euro and GEM were showing very promising patterns within 10 days. It isn't fair though. Is that 10 days going to happen? The percentages are slim. I was told that something definitely will happen between the 16th and the 20th. I don't want to hear backtracking like, well the ridge will be in place, we can wait for the retrogression. Things of that nature. I realize it is volatile, but some members on here flat out wishcast worse than I ever could...... Trust me, I want it to snow more than anyone here, but we have to be realistic on forecast probabilities. I will stand my ground on the 3-5 days window. I will believe it a lot more then. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 9 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: It isn't fair though. Is that 10 days going to happen? The percentages are slim. I was told that something definitely will happen between the 16th and the 20th. I don't want to hear backtracking like, well the ridge will be in place, we can wait for the retrogression. Things of that nature. I realize it is volatile, but some members on here flat out wishcast worse than I ever could...... Trust me, I want it to snow more than anyone here, but we have to be realistic on forecast probabilities. I will stand my ground on the 3-5 days window. I will believe it a lot more then. Kinda like how you wishcasted that NWS conference call into existence last December. 2 3 2 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Kinda like you wishcasted that NWS conference call into existence last December. Time for some new material. Notice I ignore whenever that is brought up? Let's move forward shall we? 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Kinda like you wishcasted that NWS conference call into existence last December. And I did think it was funny. This is an internet forum is it not? Let's have some fun, life is good. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 Just now, TheNewCulverJosh said: And I did think it was funny. This is an internet forum is it not? Let's have some fun, life is good. We’re not going to forget it, you did it to yourself! 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: We’re not going to forget it, you did it to yourself! Not really that big of a deal. I do have a friend that works for the NWS though. He doesn't really know much more than you guys. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 14 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: It isn't fair though. Is that 10 days going to happen? The percentages are slim. I was told that something definitely will happen between the 16th and the 20th. I don't want to hear backtracking like, well the ridge will be in place, we can wait for the retrogression. Things of that nature. I realize it is volatile, but some members on here flat out wishcast worse than I ever could...... Trust me, I want it to snow more than anyone here, but we have to be realistic on forecast probabilities. I will stand my ground on the 3-5 days window. I will believe it a lot more then. FFS dude you say this all the time. FYI-EVERYBODY KNOWS WHAT YOU THINK. Just cause the same usual suspects and weather junkies get stoked about 300 hour weather maps doesn't mean any of them think they are verbatim true. They talk about potential. The weather is boring. Some people are optimists. Some look for the light at the end of the tunnel. I shouldn't have to explain this to a grown adult. You're a broken record. If you don't care about anything until the 3-5 day window which, again, you point out constantly - show up here when it's the 3-5 day window. Otherwise - enjoy the ride. If you wanna ride the pessimistic bandwagon there are plenty here who play that role too so you can shadow them. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 hours ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Only 9 days away to the huge pattern change depicted by models a week ago. What say you Rob?? LOL Yep. I stand by the 16th-20th that a ridge will be retrograding, or setup in the Gulf of Alaska. C'MON!!!! 2 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Yep. I stand by the 16th-20th that a ridge will be retrograding, or setup in the Gulf of Alaska. C'MON!!!! You're on!!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 17 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Time for some new material. Notice I ignore whenever that is brought up? Let's move forward shall we? He says while addressing the material... 1 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 00z GFS Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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TheNewCulverJosh Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 16 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said: FFS dude you say this all the time. FYI-EVERYBODY KNOWS WHAT YOU THINK. Just cause the same usual suspects and weather junkies get stoked about 300 hour weather maps doesn't mean any of them think they are verbatim true. They talk about potential. The weather is boring. Some people are optimists. Some look for the light at the end of the tunnel. I shouldn't have to explain this to a grown adult. You're a broken record. If you don't care about anything until the 3-5 day window which, again, you point out constantly - show up here when it's the 3-5 day window. Otherwise - enjoy the ride. If you wanna ride the pessimistic bandwagon there are plenty here who play that role too so you can shadow them. Relax.........you are going to bust a blood vessel or something. And you don't know my entire history, this goes way back, at least 35 years. I used to collect the weather page from the Statesman Journal and keep them on my wall, pinned above my bed. I used to dissect those suckers, looking for any hint of snow, I was sick, real sick. My brothers and I, high desert Mat one of them, would watch channel 2, 6, 8, and 12, hoping they weren't played at the same time so we could watch all of them. We would do that from November all the way through March, just hoping to get a taste of snow. My first real good memory is 1985, I am pretty sure we got a good storm or two, we were in Woodburn at the time. My mom has pictures of me miserable in my snowsuit. I am still a recovering wishcaster. Sometimes I see things that aren't there, sometimes I will wish things into happening. But with technology today, it really has cheapened things. We know too much. It makes me lash out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted January 8, 2021 Report Share Posted January 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, TheNewCulverJosh said: Relax.........you are going to bust a blood vessel or something. And you don't know my entire history, this goes way back, at least 35 years. I used to collect the weather page from the Statesman Journal and keep them on my wall, pinned above my bed. I used to dissect those suckers, looking for any hint of snow, I was sick, real sick. My brothers and I, high desert Mat one of them, would watch channel 2, 6, 8, and 12, hoping they weren't played at the same time so we could watch all of them. We would do that from November all the way through March, just hoping to get a taste of snow. My first real good memory is 1985, I am pretty sure we got a good storm or two, we were in Woodburn at the time. My mom has pictures of me miserable in my snowsuit. I am still a recovering wishcaster. Sometimes I see things that aren't there, sometimes I will things into happening. But with technology today, it really has cheapened things. We know too much. It makes me lash out. Yeah, surprises are more rare these days which sucks. They can still happen though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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