Hawkeye Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 18z HRRR is even warmer than 12z. It's going mix crazy in Iowa. It even has rain up to Cedar Rapids now. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 The HRRR has 0.80" of precip falling as snow, but only accumulates 5.6". Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 The CAMs, at least, seem to like the prospect for freezing drizzle out ahead of the main precip shield. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 The 18z NAM suddenly lifts a solid area of precip into eastern Iowa well ahead of previous runs, but it's all rain. The earlier arrival of precip looks like it may just be a quirky run, but overall it's still way too warm for us to get more than a few inches of slop. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 This has disappointment written all over it. At least I'm on the far northern edge and will see maybe an 1" of pure snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 3k NAM Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 This rain on a deep snowpack won't be fun. I'm sure glad we are missing this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 18z NAM Nice lake enhancement going on this side of the lake on Sunday. Could really pad the totals by several inches on Sunday. Looks to snow till 9pm Sunday 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 The NAM is a good 2 degrees warmer aloft relative to the rest of guidance. It's an outlier. Though I tend to like the NAM for marginal temp situations, it may be a bit too aggressive with the warm air aloft here. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VMB443 Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 Winter Storm Warning for Milwaukee. 5-9 inches. I’ll take every single one of those inches. Please. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawker85 Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 i think this storm is going to be a classic storm that has the classic issues of what has happened this year: too warm! This is a pacific storm bringing with it mild air and warm gulf air which is causing the rain/snow line to push further north. this is turning more into a rain storm for Iowa each model run that comes out 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 WSW issued. 2 in one week. It's been along time since that has happedned 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 DVN issued Winter Storm Warnings, but for 2-4" for much of the area, 4-6" by Dubuque. Calling for freezing rain for the entire area. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, bud2380 said: DVN issued Winter Storm Warnings, but for 2-4" for much of the area, 4-6" by Dubuque. Calling for freezing rain for the entire area. Sounds like a gross mix. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 Warning for me! However its mainly due to the ice. 1-2 tenths of ice and 2-5 inches of snow. Disappointed its not all snow but still pretty awesome to get 2 big storms within days of each other and score a warning from both. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edhalen Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 LOT has some conflicting total ranges. I realize I'm splitting hairs in all likelihood as we're going to get some good snow with this storm - but note the difference in total ranges on two different graphics on their site. Both graphics created within 30 minutes of each other. Interesting... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 DVN discussion... at this point I'm not buying the colder global models at all. Quote Given the above scenario there is a significant concern. The 925-850 mb winds are averaging 30-40 kts which is bringing a freight train of moisture into the area. The concern is that the warm layer aloft will be pushed further north than what the models are indicating. If this occurs then ice amounts would be higher and snow amounts lower. This situation will need to be watched carefully with both model and real data over the next 12-18 hours. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 12 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: DVN discussion... at this point I'm not buying the colder global models at all. That would suck if this turns into an ice storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 Not a very good AFD from LOT regarding the storm. Guess they were in a hurry or they might do one in greater detail in the early morning AFD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 Thundersnow sounds awesome! I’m moving to North Carolina in a week, and this would be the best way to close out my past few years in Chicago 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, Jaycee said: Thundersnow sounds awesome! I’m moving to North Carolina in a week, and this would be the best way to close out my past few years in Chicago Nice. What parts? My brother lives a bit south of Raleigh. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 15 minutes ago, james1976 said: Nice. What parts? My brother lives a bit south of Raleigh. Omg that’s where I’m going! It’s just outside of Raleigh, it’s called Morrisville 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 21z RAP 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 I'm actually liking where I sit right right. Either way I'm going to get a good deal of snow, a good deal of ice, or a lil of both. I'm ok with that! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 Looking like a solid 5-6"+ for my area. I'll accept that! Detroit is at 6"+. Keep in mind, Lake Huron lake effect kicks in on Monday and has it snowing till Tuesday. Amounts could be higher than this. The east side will score nicely. South zone could see 8" or so. Amounts could change, could be more, could be less. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 29, 2021 Report Share Posted January 29, 2021 LOT scaling back their totals currently. This is their newest snowfall forecast map(s). Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 34 minutes ago, Sciascia said: LOT scaling back their totals currently. This is their newest snowfall forecast map(s). I just saw the latest RPM model and its spitting out 8-10' for Cook/Lake/DuPage into NW IN...this is prob a safer call on their end... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 00z HRRR is coming in now. Every run is warmer than the last. Like the NAM, the HRRR is now lifting plain ol' rain up to Cedar Rapids. What a waste of good precip. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slowpoke Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 2 hours ago, Niko said: Looking like a solid 5-6"+ for my area. I'll accept that! Detroit is at 6"+. Keep in mind, Lake Huron lake effect kicks in on Monday and has it snowing till Tuesday. Amounts could be higher than this. The east side will score nicely. South zone could see 8" or so. Amounts could change, could be more. Nice enjoy all that snow Niko, NWS Detroit is only calling for maybe a inch out my way in the thumb. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 17 minutes ago, Slowpoke said: Nice enjoy all that snow Niko, NWS Detroit is only calling for maybe a inch out my way in the thumb. I appreciate it. I think you will get clipped by Port Huron "Lake Effect" on Monday and possibly into Tuesday, so stay tuned for that. Expect some possible changes in your forecast. Keep an eye out for that in the coming days. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 The NAMs have a decent band of snow through Waterloo, but there's not much beyond that. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownWeather Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 LOT had an interactive Q&A on twitter tonight. It is clear that they are are more conservative from their tone. Nonetheless really interesting to hear directly from the forecasters Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 30, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Oz NAM came in decent! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 GFS-V16 (or GFS Elect as I like to call it) coming in wetter across N IL. 1 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Hell yeah, give me my freezing drizzle. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 1 hour ago, ChiTownWeather said: LOT had an interactive Q&A on twitter tonight. It is clear that they are are more conservative from their tone. Nonetheless really interesting to hear directly from the forecasters I love offices that do this. LCH did this when I lived in Southeast Texas, and I actually learned more from them than I did from my home office of HGX. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 20 minutes ago, Sciascia said: GFS-V16 (or GFS Elect as I like to call it) coming in wetter across N IL. Lol at models insisting on a nice dead zone over my region. Oof! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Amazing that the night before the storm, where I sit in Eastern Iowa there is no model agreement at all. So I have no idea what to expect. My gut tells me we’re gonna see some rain here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfweather Posted January 30, 2021 Report Share Posted January 30, 2021 Waterloo is in a warning for up to 1/4” of ice and 2-5” snow. Local met doesn’t agree and says a glaze and 4-8” 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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