stuffradio Posted December 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 How is the 12z looking?The cold air has moved up to hour 216 on the OP! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catnip Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 The parallel GFS is really chilly looking for Christmas. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 It actually managed to drop to 29 here with heavy frost and fog this morning. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Looks a little different than the map Tim posted yesterday for Christmas Eve! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 As you can see the parallel model is quite a bit sharper with the shortwave trough on day 10. Surface gradients become northerly over WA. This model had a surface low tracking right along the WA / OR border at day 10 with brisk northerly gradients over WA. Could have been a lowland snow setup, but 850 maps aren't available on that model so hard to tell for sure. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 One other thing I'd like to point out is both of the cold snaps we've had so far this season were shown to be less than this one when they were less than a week out. It bears watching. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 The Dec 2006 analogs we've been seeing have now graduated to Jan 2007 analogs. I would gladly take a repeat. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 A word of caution. On the page where that 500-1000mb parallel GFS chart showing 507 thickness at PDX was posted, the caption was "Here is the parallel GFS which has been having a lot of issues in the long range." Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 A word of caution. On the page where that 500-1000mb parallel GFS chart showing 507 thickness at PDX was posted, the caption was "Here is the parallel GFS which has been having a lot of issues in the long range." Lovely. I thought the model was supposed to be an upgrade. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Mark Nelsen posted some long range ensembles this morning. Looks like the EURO is digging the idea of retrogression after Christmas. The GEM and GFS, not so much. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 The MJO forecasts have trended toward being extremely favorable for an Arctic event in the NW in the rather near future. Very much like the past wave, but slower moving if the models are to be believed. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Mark Nelsen posted some long range ensembles this morning. Looks like the EURO is digging the idea of retrogression after Christmas. The GEM and GFS, not so much. The GFS is lagging about one octant behind the ECMWF on the MJO progress. The ECMWF has been the best model by far on MJO this season. Even the GFS has come on board for a little cold snap around Christmas. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 http://weathernorthwest.com/ Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Christmas Eve on the 12Z Canadian and GFS. Hoping the GFS has a better handle on things. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 A couple of interesting notes about the last few analog composites. One is this represents a total anomaly field reversal from what we have seen most of this season, and two is many of the analogs are from La Nina winters. Amazingly 2006-07 continues to show a strong presence with 2003-04 also hanging in there. Those have both been considered very strong analogs this season for a myriad of reasons. No doubt things are going to be a lot colder than they've been. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 http://weathernorthwest.com/ Pretty horrible consistency alright. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 What a gorgeous December morning. Chilly and not a cloud in the sky. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 What a gorgeous December morning. Chilly and not a cloud in the sky.Beautiful. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Nice trend on the 12z ensemble. The mean for the blocking has shifted more to the NW with a number of cold members for the PNW. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 12z ECMWF at 240 hours is money Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 http://download.ecmwf.org/data/web249/get_legacy_plot-web249-20141214185613-28094-0539.gif Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Might be skiing by New Years... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Might be skiing by New Years...Good news. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Good news. It's been a rough few years up there. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman5678 Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Looking way better for mountain snow over the next couple of weeks. Through Christmas Eve: BTW .3" in Olympia is a lock! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121412/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_41.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014121412/gfsp_z500a_namer_41.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121412/ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 It's been a rough few years up there.Even rougher in Silverton's Silverton Hills. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Even rougher in Silverton's Silverton Hills. After the epic winter of 2011-12, combined with Phil's promise of a coming ice age I began work on a small ski hill. Hoping that my proximity to Oregon's 3rd largest city would be a boon despite the palty 75' vertical drop on the run. Since then my hill has been largely bare or covered in snowfall which does not even cover the unmowed (No ski season no money for maintenance) grass all the way, and the lifts have sat silent (manual tow rope). The lack of snow has a real impact on the Silverton Hills economy... 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 A perfect morning to get the tree! 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014121412/ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png Hmmmmm Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Might be skiing by New Years...Yeah I think so. The next 5-7 days look fairly dry but the 7-12 day period is definitely looking like a fairly good mountain snow pattern is likely. If we could transition from that into a sexier retrogressed pattern it'd be the icing on the cake. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 A perfect morning to get the tree! Very nice. I heard that it has been a good year for the tree farms. The past 5-6 years have been pretty bleak up here. A common scene after Christmas the last few years has been the tree farms pulling the mature trees they were unable to sell and burning them (Freshly pulled Christmas trees in the middle of winter actually don't burn, they just kind of smolder for weeks on end.). This year it doesn't look like that will be happening at least to that scope as the farmers have been telling me that business is brisk. Part of that is also that the glut of trees which were planted in the mid 2000s has now waned. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Very nice. I heard that it has been a good year for the tree farms. The past 5-6 years have been pretty bleak up here. A common scene after Christmas the last few years has been the tree farms pulling the mature trees they were unable to sell and burning them (Freshly pulled Christmas trees in the middle of winter actually don't burn, they just kind of smolder for weeks on end.). This year it doesn't look like that will be happening at least to that scope as the farmers have been telling me that business is brisk. Part of that is also that the glut of trees which were planted in the mid 2000s has now waned. Interesting. I wouldn't think the demand for Christmas trees would vary much from year to year. I'm going home to Bainbridge to watch the Seahawks game and get our tree today. Absolutely gorgeous views of the Olympics over the fog from the ferry right now. 1 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Interesting. I wouldn't think the demand for Christmas trees would vary much from year to year. I'm going home to Bainbridge to watch the Seahawks game and get our tree today. Absolutely gorgeous views of the Olympics over the fog from the ferry right now. I'm not sure how much the local market varies, but the overall market has been on a strong decline since the start of the great recession. Part of the reason is that most of the trees grown in Oregon (The #1 Christmas tree producing state in the US), go to outside markets, most notably California. A tree that may cost $30-40 in Oregon may cost as much as $100 or more in California. Because of the recession many people in the more expensive markets were opting to purchase fake trees, which may be a bigger one time expense, but can be used year after year. Also the quality of tree that one buys in California is lower than a local lot in the PNW because obviously the tree at the local lot in the PNW is fresh cut. They start cutting the trees for the foreign and distant domestic markets up here around Halloween. Just how far do PNW grown trees go? To places like Hawaii, Japan, and all over the US. When I bought a tree at Lowe's in 2009 when I lived in Oklahoma, the tag said that it was grown near Estacada, Oregon. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 No doubt the model trends are fantastic right now. The 12z GFS ensemble is the best by far. A number of members drop below -5 for Seattle. The control model is downright frigid late in the run. Nice to see some freakish cold runs of various models showing up. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest daniel1 Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 A couple of interesting notes about the last few analog composites. One is this represents a total anomaly field reversal from what we have seen most of this season, and two is many of the analogs are from La Nina winters. Amazingly 2006-07 continues to show a strong presence with 2003-04 also hanging in there. Those have both been considered very strong analogs this season for a myriad of reasons. No doubt things are going to be a lot colder than they've been. I likey! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 I love the ECMWF surface pressure progs for day 10. 1040mb up into the Aleutians usually mean very cold weather on the way for us. Dare I say a white Christmas is actually possible? 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 A perfect morning to get the tree! Looks like the baby has been fattening up for the long winter ahead. Good sign! 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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