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3/13 - 3/16 Powerful March Storm


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Folks, when Spring time wx marry's with late season cold, nature tends to develop some of the most memorable storm systems across the mid-section of the nation.  This storm will likely feature blizzard conditions across the CO Rockies and could potentially extend east depending on how this storm develops.  My confidence is pretty high this will be one of the most impactful storms to hit the Plains this season.  Who's ready to track some severe wx and the threat for late season heavy snows???

 

12z EPS...some big changes with the amount of the snow and expansion farther east and north...

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I had 5.5” of rain this morning and picked up another .1” of red mud rain today for a storm total of 5.6”. This storm was able to suck up dust from New Mexico and Texas and rained down on us! 

I'm happy to report that over the last few days, PHX and most of the valley has picked up anywhere between .25-.50" of rain, while that is a drop in the bucket for what mid westerners are used to, thi

Ended up with 3.41" storm total. Even better, not a lot of standing water anywhere so it looks like most of it soaked into the ground.

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DMX's take from PM AFD-

Friday and Beyond:

Another surface low pressure system will move along the cold front
Friday into Saturday as the deeper trough over the western CONUS
propagates eastward. This system will likely have more considerable
height falls, and a greater temperature drop. Initial precipitation
will be rain, but as the cold front completely clears, there does
appear to be a decent deformation zone that develops across Iowa
which could bring the potential for snow or some type of wintry
precipitation. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with this
second system, and will largely depend on what happens with QPF with
the first system. After the passage of the second system,
temperatures will turn seasonably cool. More precipitation chances
are possible early next week.
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Panhandle and Sand Hills region get demolished on the Euro. Could see some very impressive seasonal totals out that way since they've done alright earlier as well. Also very wet. 2.5-3" in Lincoln by midweek. 

1615939200-u0obL5sN4Yw.png

1615939200-RpEmKp7SRKw.png

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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My goodness, to see a 20" snow mean at this distance per the latest 00z EPS is eye popping.  This storm could be one hellova snowstorm for the Rockies/Foothills of CO and into the Panhandle regions of NE.  Historic March snowstorm??

 

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Something that I'm noticing which is an intriguing feature is the slow moving comma head that the models are seeing.  The trowal-like feature on radar will look mighty impressive to say the least.

 

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NWS Hastings morning disco:  

At this time, the better snow chances and higher snow totals are favored across the western half of Nebraska and into northwest Kansas but details will be refined as the system nears. Be sure to stay up to date on the latest forecasts as this is definitely a system to keep an eye on given the potential for widespread precip and a return to winter weather conditions.

I am right on the eastern edge as of this morning's models.  Hoping for shift east, but we'll see.  The moisture will be wonderful if it all pans out.  

 

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Wow, that's a pretty insane mean for this range. I would expect a lot of shifting tonight, esp if Euro doesn't agree. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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8 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

GFS still about the same. 

At first it doesn't look great for snow as a couple red thickness lines lift up through the area.  However, as the system ejects eastward and the deep moisture lifts into Iowa, thickness crashes and there is a rapid switch to snow across the state.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The 00z Canadian is a big change from previous mild, north runs.  The new run is similar to the GFS, but it's farther south and weaker.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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^^ it does change over to snow now, I don't think it did with earlier ones. A good sign.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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posting for entertainment purposes only- 00Z CMC--- love the 51" in W.NE!!!  That's like 2 years worth of snow out there. HA!!

gem_asnow_ncus_24.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The UK is also slower to eject the system from the plains, so it is weakening quickly as it moves across Iowa.  The UK drops a ton of rain over the plains.

sn10_acc.us_c.png

qpf_acc.us_c.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Geez ukie. Lots of rain there. Going to cancel the drought til June for my neighborhood if that holds up. Lol.

 

Never ever in my lifetime did I ever think I'd see 60 inches of snow modeled in Nebraska. Wow. 

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Expecting this to go N as it did in previous runs. Still a good sign too see the GFS/ the  new GFS /CMC and Ukie all change to snow over C.IA.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The one thing I have noticed in terms of the past couple runs of models; it seems the deformation zone is taken on a more west to east based set up. With the surge of moisture coming up to the north it’s going to be interesting to see if that’s a trend. There is gonna be a lot of snow dumping on the front range of the Rockies. I would think dynamic cooling along with the fact that it is a cut off low will make this an interesting set up. 

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00z Euro is north

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The snow amounts shown on many model runs and at least 1.5 days  (about 6 runs) shows 3' in W.NE. Unreal.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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06Z GFS with a shift N. Expect more shifts N. Twin Cities will be on fringes of S extent when all is said in done. Areas getting snow later today/tonight in C.MN and North will likely doubledown. Good for them. They need the moisture.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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NWS North Platte morning disco, they still aren’t sure what this storm will do. I agree with their lack of confidence in the models as of now. 


“There is still lots of uncertainty regarding this system as far as track and precipitation type. Several models have indicated significant snowfall for much of north central Nebraska (up to 20 or 30 inches) while others have only an inch or two across the entire forecast area. While there is a big difference in snowfall totals, what most of the model members have is plenty of moisture with QPF values on upwards of 2 to 4 inches. Therefore, the major deciding factor will most likely come down to temperatures and where the rain/snow line will set up. The models with less snow, have more liquid QPF falling across the area which in turn eats into the overall snowfall totals. Whereas models with more snow have cold air pushing in quicker changing precipitation over to all snow much faster. After looking at several models as well as ensemble runs, my confidence in what that outcome will be is very low. However, I can say that I am moderate to highly confident there will be a major system moving through. Whether that turns out to be mostly rain or mostly snow, is still up in the air. I am fairly certain that this uncertainty will likely wane over the next couple days as the upper level feature gets sampled and models begin to ingest that data.

Beyond this weekend, it could remain fairly active through at least mid-week as another couple systems move over Nebraska. The concern with these is that they are highly dependent on what the big system does this weekend. Therefore, for now will only put in slight chance PoPs for Tuesday and next Wednesday due to uncertainty in track and development.”

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00z Euro...If I had the chance to venture out to Vail this weekend for a ski trip, I'd do it in a heartbeat....man, the central Rockies are gonna get crushed...

 

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00z EPS...

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Yep, this baby is going north. I'm still relatively excited just for rain though haha. Feb 21 would be unusually early for the last measurable snow of the season, so I would think something wintry is in the cards at the tail end of this or later this month. But this has been an unusual year so who knows, we very well could be done. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

00z Euro...If I had the chance to venture out to Vail this weekend for a ski trip, I'd do it in a heartbeat....man, the central Rockies are gonna get crushed...

 

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00z EPS...

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Not that the CO ski resorts won't get any snow, but this is a Front Range favored setup where the prominent CO resorts are on the opposite side of the Rockies. 

If this things keeps shifting more into Wyoming keep these webcams in mind.  They are on the east side of the Snowy Mountain Range of SE Wyoming:

https://www.snowyrangeski.com/webcams/

https://www.coloradowebcam.net/camera/centennial-wy-mountain-view-hotel-cafe-hwy-130-webcam

     

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Just now, Beltrami Island said:

Not that the CO ski resorts won't get any snow, but this is a Front Range favored setup where the prominent CO resorts are on the opposite side of the Rockies. 

If this things keeps shifting more into Wyoming keep these webcams in mind.  They are on the east side of the Snowy Mountain Range of SE Wyoming:

https://www.snowyrangeski.com/webcams/

https://www.coloradowebcam.net/camera/centennial-wy-mountain-view-hotel-cafe-hwy-130-webcam

     

I totally agree this is a Front Range storm...I just like spending time in a resort community when its snowing in the mountains...

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12z GFS & GFSv16

snku_acc.us_mw.png

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z GDPS

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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There is a south trend this morning.

12z UK

sn10_acc.us_c.png

qpf_acc.us_c.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z Euro is south as well, at least farther east.  The Euro actually has the initial heavy snow lifting well north, with much less in Colorado.

sn10_acc.us_c.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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For eastern Iowa, it may well come down to how quickly the system ejects eastward.  If it is slower, the moisture plume will crap out before reaching us.  If the system is faster, we could get good snow before it weakens.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Yea this is gonna be an interesting one. I like potential for TSSN(due to some fairly steep lapse rates aloft and very strong FGEN) in that band especially as modeled in the more aggressive guidance. Could be a very quick hitting 6+ for someone. Should also note that this system is favorably timed overnight so shouldn't have sun angle problems.

2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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