January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

0z Canadian is very different in the long range.

[Front Ranger]

0z Canadian is very different in the long range.

 

All models are pretty inconsistent now past day 7. What they agree on is some sort of major ridging emerging over the Aleutians or AK.

[bainbridgekid]

0z Canadian is very different in the long range.

Been a while since we had cold air like that in BC.

[richard mann]

-
.. I'd sure like to see old "Nino", switch back to showing a bit more vitality, at this point.
 
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.1.22.2015.gif
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim full.html

— But am happy enough with its present state, with the warmer anomalies sitting where that are: .. more specific SSTs responsible for them being warm enough still to generate some decent moisture. Plenty for some decent precip. generation given some decent cold delivery to offset it.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS and Canadian do have some similarities in week 2. Looks like the type of pattern the models will have a hard time resolving.

[snow_wizard]

Certainly a bit more chilly tonight with a current temp of 43 here. Getting pretty foggy now.

[AlTahoe]

66 at South Lake Tahoe today. That station only goes back to 1968 but they broke their monthly record by 5 degrees.

Last year in South Lake Tahoe we hit 64 in January which was a new monthly record. Then we broke it again today.

[Tyler Mode]

Tonight overlooking Battle Ground.  The fog is not even as deep as the cell phone towers!  The moon and stars above are beautiful!

45 degrees up this little hill (470') vs. 40 down here at 300'.

 

http://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Landscapes/Winter-20142015/i-982PxLr/0/L/14.%20G%20Fog%20Over%20BG%20Sharp-L.jpg

[AlTahoe]

 CA had something similar in 1947-48. Only 7.2" of snow at Tahoe through the end of January 1948. They average about 200" per winter.

My house in South Lake Tahoe has had 2.5" of snow this winter along with 4 trace snowfalls. I have been rounding up to 3"

Nobody here can believe what has been going on the last 3 years. January is at +8.1F above average for the month.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty amazing to see it cooler here than Cut Bank Montana in January, but it currently is. Pretty bizarre pattern we are in.

[wx_statman]

Last year in South Lake Tahoe we hit 64 in January which was a new monthly record. Then we broke it again today.

 

Official NWS data has 58 for a maximum last January.

 

Monthly record of 61 set on 1-17-2011 broken today with a reading of 66.

[snow_wizard]

My house in South Lake Tahoe has had 2.5" of snow this winter along with 4 trace snowfalls. I have been rounding up to 3"

Nobody here can believe has been going on the last 3 years. January is at +8.1F above average for the month.

Amazing stats. I'm betting you have some huge snowfall winters coming up in the near future.

[epiceast]

Hour 144 is a ridge on GEM.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

What a pathetic January day. Give me sideways rain and 40 all day over this . Counting the days to get back over east of the cascades.

[wx_statman]

I'm totally in a spring mood after the last couple days. Bring on the warm season, baby!

[Deweydog]

Pretty amazing to see it cooler here than Cut Bank Montana in January, but it currently is. Pretty bizarre pattern we are in.

Bizarre? It's a subsidence inversion.

[HighlandExperience]

Hour 144 is a ridge on GEM.

 

This ridge may become like the giant red spot on Jupiter. Might last for 1000 years. 

[Dan the Weatherman]

Amazing stats. I'm betting you have some huge snowfall winters coming up in the near future.

Boy I sure hope so! We desperately need a hefty snowpack in the Sierras to help alleviate this terrible drought that has developed over the last three years.

[ShawniganLake]

Hour 144 is a ridge on GEM.

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_204_0000.gif

[epiceast]

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_204_0000.gif

Didn't know it was publicly available after hour 144. But that's some decent zonal flow.

[snow_wizard]

Boy I sure hope so! We desperately need a hefty snowpack in the Sierras to help alleviate this terrible drought that has developed over the last three years.

Knowing how these things go you will probably need an ark when it changes.

[snow_wizard]

This ridge may become like the giant red spot on Jupiter. Might last for 1000 years.

It almost seems that way right now.

[epiceast]

00z Euro officially breaks the ridge

[DareDuck]

48 under the fog here today. Hiked up Spencer's butte today and it was in the upper 60s above the fog. It was packed out there, everyone trying to get out of the fog and into the sun. Wasn't sure my 10 year old dog would make it up to rocks at the top of Spencer's butte, but she made it up with no issues. She was with my girlfriends sister previously and wasn't well taken care of. Since September 2013 she's lost 20-25lbs and seems to be turning back the clock!

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF has a huge mass of brutally cold air over Northern Canada and Alaska at day 10. Nice to see Alaska getting into really cold air two times with only a small break in the middle. Maybe things can start to break our way with some really cold actually west of our longitude for a change.

[richard mann]

The ECMWF has a huge mass of brutally cold air over Northern Canada and Alaska at day 10. Nice to see Alaska getting into really cold air two times with only a small break in the middle. Maybe things can start to break our way with some really cold actually west of our longitude for a change.

 

.. There ya go. Welcome back Jim. (Just Joshin'.) .. Main idea here of course, if only resounding what you've said, some amount of significant cold more near by and potentially more upstream at all. Here and with looking at things more seasonally more to this point, west of the Rockies north even.

[snow_wizard]

Incredibly dense fog here now. Literally zero visibility. Hard to believe it was unlimited visibility and warm just a few hours ago.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Knowing how these things go you will probably need an ark when it changes.

You are probably right. We will probably have a huge season at some point with big storms producing major flooding. It certainly won't be this season, though, although I would expect at least some storms from February through April. +PDO conditions are generally favorable for wetter winters in CA, especially with a moderate to strong Nino, but it can even be wet in ENSO neutral and weak Nino years, too, even though not every year in a +PDO regime is wet.

[westcoastexpat]

I'm surprised there isn't more excitement around here for February, particularly for those north of Seattle. Seems like a pretty decent shot at a cold early February. Cold air is moving southward just as the ridge begins to break down. Opens up a lot of opportunity.

[HighlandExperience]

I'm surprised there isn't more excitement around here for February, particularly for those north of Seattle. Seems like a pretty decent shot at a cold early February. Cold air is moving southward just as the ridge begins to break down. Opens up a lot of opportunity.

 

It is encouraging to hear some positive news. Perhaps people just feel a litttle shell shocked right now.

[TT-SEA]

Quite the inversion over Seattle this morning... how will all this fog burn off??   

 

http://s27.postimg.org/jn8wghnz6/sea.jpg

[HighlandExperience]

Quite the inversion over Seattle this morning... how will all this fog burn off??   

 

http://s27.postimg.org/jn8wghnz6/sea.jpg

 

Yup I am downtown right now. Beautiful morning here. Feels like May.

 

Hard to believe the NE is going to get slammed with snow, while we are sitting with Spring like temps.

[Sometimesdylan]

Headed up to Haines today. Hope for a taste of winter while I'm there!

[MossMan]

Quite the inversion over Seattle this morning... how will all this fog burn off??   

 

http://s27.postimg.org/jn8wghnz6/sea.jpg

Was very soupy up here early this morning but has since quickly burned off and it does indeed look like a May morning as I look out the window from my desk at work. Looking forward to a sunny and warm day!

 

Then bring on winter the first few weeks of February! But after that I would love nothing more than a drier and warmer than normal March thru October!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Was 46 and clear at my house this morning. 38 and foggy by the time I got down into town. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

It is encouraging to hear some positive news. Perhaps people just feel a litttle shell shocked right now.

More like people will believe when they see it. This stuff has a greater chance of modifying and getting warmer based on current history. I think people, based on past experience, do not really believe it will happen and even at face value it is not all that exciting. It is fantasy land and is not even close to verifying so I think people are just waiting. -- Zonal flow looks somewhat possible though. So, at least "normal" weather.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Woke up to crystal clear skies, and 41 degrees. No fog at all. Nice!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Man this stuff back east is going to be epic!  I so wish for the day that we can see something even marginally close to that. Will be fun to watch from afar but I am so jealous!!

[antipex]

Man this stuff back east is going to be epic!  I so wish for the day that we can see something even marginally close to that. Will be fun to watch from afar but I am so jealous!!

 

I know it's not quite the same, but we had a blizzard warning down here in 2004, and then there's always December 2008.

[TT-SEA]

The weak Nino is certainly west-based now.     And the warmer than normal water off the West Coast is healthy as ever.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.1.26.2015.gif