Tom Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Someone in IA who can get underneath that heaviest band wherever it sets up could see double digit snowfalls. When that band pivots will be key. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Looks like SEMI could see a little snow from this clipper type system. I'm thinking with high ratios being almost 20:1, maybe It can squeeze out a 2-4 inch type event. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trinomial Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Hi-RES 12z NAM looks almost identical to me. I might be wrong though, but track as well as qpf looks very similar with little movement compared to the 6z. Are we thinking 25:1 ratios still? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 09Z SREF mean is still 7.64 inches at ORD with the lowest a bit over 4 inches and the highest being around a foot. I subtracted off the snow that it still showed from this weekends system. I still believe a slight shift in either direction is possible, but probably only around 25 miles or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 GFS not budging yet- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 12z GFS came in even slightly farther south for N IL....riding the northern edge ATM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 PGFS came in further south http://weather.graphics/gsm/2015010412/iowa/gfs_6hr_snow_acc_iowa_9.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 I'm not liking how the GFS is going a bit south every single run lol. The NAM is still a pretty big northern outlier at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trinomial Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 What will have to happen to have this storm shift further north again? Is the arctic air just pushing it south? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Not liking the trends so far but still a ways to go so addl shifts are possible. The saving grace will be higher snow ratios for us unless there are more shifts to our south then we won't see much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Yeah, someone tell the southern shifts to chill out a little bit! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 What will have to happen to have this storm shift further north again? Is the arctic air just pushing it south?Yup, the arctic air is pushing it south...right now ORD stands at a 3-5" event tops. Des Moines, IA is looking to be in the sweet spot but that southern edge is a dagger if your 25 miles to the south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 RGEM http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2015010412/mw/rgem_tprecip_slp_mw_17.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 stop going south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 NAM is a direct hit for me. GFS has me just north of the heaviest band now. Last night's Euro was perfect for me. I know one thing, that southern cutoff is harsh. I would hate to be in that area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 I like this. But idk when it was updatedhttp://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_composite.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 075z??? Is that 1:30am? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 4, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 That was from this morning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 GGEM http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2015010412/iowa/cmc_total_precip_iowa_8.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2015010412/mw/cmc_total_precip_mw_11.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawkfan Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Ha Like the trends of this pushing south I'm too close to that southern cutoff But liking the trends currently. I love to get under that sweet spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Looks like a great hit for certain areas in Iowa; don't know what it is about clippers but they always are good for areas to our east. We never have luck with them, one thing is for sure the cold shot coming after looks brutal. I have a forecast high of 3 on Wednesday! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 The past couple storms had major shifts within 24hrs. I wonder what to expect this time around, will it shift farther south or trend back north to where it first started. Guess it all depends on where the baraclinic zone sets up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 GFS ensembles pretty inline with the op. Guess is the mean is a tick north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 The past couple storms had major shifts within 24hrs. I wonder what to expect this time around, will it shift farther south or trend back north to where it first started. Guess it all depends on where the baraclinic zone sets up.Yeah but this past storm had so many pieces and phasing issues. Clippers dont have that. Any shifts should be minor......i would think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Yeah but this past storm had so many pieces and phasing issues. Clippers dont have that. Any shifts should be minor......i would think. Yea but minor shifts could be huge from a decent snowfall to not much for a few of us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 The past couple storms had major shifts within 24hrs. I wonder what to expect this time around, will it shift farther south or trend back north to where it first started. Guess it all depends on where the baraclinic zone sets up.Eh, I have my doubts this is going to shift back North. The 12Z hi-res runs this morning went well south of their 06Z. My guess that the 18Z NAM will continue to correct south more in line with the GFS as well. It's a lot better to be riding on the northern end than the southern end though. Even if the southern solutions come to fruition we would still get around 2-4 inches which would be a lot better than nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 That southern edge is harsh. would not wanna be down there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 If this thing keeps pushing south is going to end up in Missouri. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 12z Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Looks like a non event now up this way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Looks like a DSM/DVN Special right now...give or take 25 miles north or south. You can see the models coming into agreement. However, it can easily go 25 miles north or south the day of. Just need to see what the radar is showing Monday afternoon in order to see where this clipper is tracking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Thanks for posting tom. On 35 now near mason city and she's a ground blizzard in the open areas Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 It will be really interesting to see the radar returns once the storm starts going. I remember last year that the models had some issues with qpf/speed/location of the clippers. Still think Chicagoland will be in the 3-6 range Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 That southern edge is harsh. would not wanna be down there. That's the place where you would be sweating it. haha. I do think the bleeding trend to the south is coming to a halt now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Folks who are on the northern edge, keep in mind that snow ratios increase as you head northl so when you see the qpf totals, add more fluff to it as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Good luck to those down South. At least we finally have a storm in the region (so far). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trinomial Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 We had so many times where within 24 hours the model trends opposite. Lets see if that can happen! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 Wouldn't surprise me to see a north trend. Especially since its not fully sampled yet. Doubt it'd be much, but could see it. That said, also wouldn't surprise me if there is no change either. Pretty solid concensus from the models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 4, 2015 Report Share Posted January 4, 2015 If someone can post the new SREF's for ORD when they come in it would be appreciate... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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