July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2014 was a low-key scorcher. 

[Timmy Supercell]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

2014 was a low-key scorcher. 

I maxed 98-99 however the average high was 90.6 that month here. I don't think any other July accomplished that feat.

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The amount of people who have no idea how to read an ensemble mean appears to be growing.

Orange and red actually means cold... they got it wrong.   Its just lots of spread.    Cold will continue indefinitely.  

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

That looks beautiful. I’d be chilling out on the porch all day.

Didn't last long... sun breaking out at times now.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Didn't last long... sun breaking out at times now.

That’s unfortunate.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Didn't last long... sun breaking out at times now.

You want to re-hash that entire discussion? I’d rather not, but am still happy to do so.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

You want to re-hash that entire discussion? I’d rather not, but am still happy to do so.

Plz no we’ve all already read it quite a few times

[Phil]

I will be performing some black magic this evening to kill that 4CH. Then the rains will come.

[Phil]

Already have hurricane Elsa in the Atlantic.

Broke 2020’s early storm record before it even had a chance to settle in.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEFS ensemble mean for next weekend...    

[Cloud]

Here we go again this is just brutal man. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Here we go again this is just brutal man. 

Nah... I am done.    We all know a warm pattern when we see one.  

Its bad enough that we can't get any rain and likely have to deal with more uncomfortable weather ahead.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nah... I am done.    We all know a warm pattern when we see one.  

Almost certain we will have at least one more heat wave this summer. I think there may have been only one in 1993, but I could be wrong and even if I’m right that’s only one summer in recent memory where there’s been only one. Every other summer has had more than just one hot spell.

That said, eight days out is still , so I will take it more seriously if the ECMWF comes/stays on board as it gets closer in time. Until then, not so much.

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Here we go again this is just brutal man. 

Yup. When Tim’s house of cards inevitably collapses, I’m gonna have fun with him for a long, long time.

[Phil]

Close tornado intercept in Delaware yesterday.

 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yup. When Tim’s house of cards collapses I’m gonna have fun with him for a long, long time. 

If you think I am saying troughing will never return then you are very wrong.    That is silly.    

Its just very unlikely to come in the next 2 weeks... which is as far out as I can see.    

[Cloud]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nah... I am done.    We all know a warm pattern when we see one.  

Its bad enough that we can't get any rain and likely have to deal with more uncomfortable weather ahead.

The current relief is such a blessing but we all should brace ourselves for a couple more heatwaves this summer. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Close tornado intercept in Delaware yesterday.

 

Andrew M is in Delaware right now... wonder if he saw any action.  

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If you think I am saying troughing will never return then you are very wrong.    That is silly.    

Its just very unlikely to come in the next 2 weeks... which is as far out as I can see.    

I’m sure you realize a trough can exist within positive 500mb geopotential height anomalies. 

[Phil]

This sucks.

 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m sure you realize a trough can exist within positive 500mb geopotential height anomalies. 

And with warmer than normal surface temps too.    It's very likely going to be a warm first half of July.  

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

This sucks.

 

Wonder what caused it... I guess it started right in town and it was engulfed in very short order.   Probably a careless person during strong winds and very hot temps.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Wonder what caused it... I guess it started right in town and it was engulfed in very short order.   Probably a careless person during strong winds and very hot temps.

There are rumors it was sparks from a train.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And with warmer than normal surface temps too.    It's very likely going to be a warm first half of July.  

Like the last 2 days? 

[Timmy Supercell]

Forgot to share this from yesterday around 6pm I think it was? 

[Timmy Supercell]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And with warmer than normal surface temps too.    It's very likely going to be a warm first half of July.  

Very very.

[Phil]

 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Like the last 2 days? 

It was warmer than normal the last 2 days.    And going to be even more so this weekend.  

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It was warmer than normal the last 2 days.    And going to be even more so this weekend.  

Long way from the forecasted mid/upper 80s, though. 

[Cloud]

13 minutes ago, Phil said:

This sucks.

 

Very sad…. Being such a small town and community, I don’t see how they can recover from this or even if people are willing to rebuild. But as human, we are resilient creatures and I hope residents of Lytton find ways to rebuild their town. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Long way from the forecasted mid/upper 80s, though. 

Lets just make a prediction and then score it on 7/15.  

I predict SEA will be between +3 and +4 for the first half of July.    And that is with the UHI inflated departures removed with the new averages.    SEA will be in line with the rest of the stations in western WA.  

What is your prediction?

[Link]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

The amount of people who have no idea how to read an ensemble mean appears to be growing.

What is 'read'?

[Farmboy]

40 minutes ago, Phil said:

Close tornado intercept in Delaware yesterday.

 

Dude couldn't see he was driving right into a tornado?

[Link]

29 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

There are rumors it was sparks from a train.

Just like suing the hell out of PGE gotta ban them trains from moving. They are DAAAAAAAAAANGEROUS! (Unless they don't move)

[snow drift]

35 minutes ago, Phil said:

This sucks.

 

Like Malden, WA

[Link]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

I will be performing some black magic this evening to kill that 4CH. Then the rains will come.

 

[TT-SEA]

33 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

There are rumors it was sparks from a train.

Horrible.  

[snow drift]

Spokane Valley had highs of 101, 105, 108, 113, 108, and 99 yesterday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Snowdrift said:

Spokane Valley had highs of 101, 105, 108, 113, 108, and 99 yesterday.

That's unbelievable.

[Front Ranger]

48 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

The current relief is such a blessing but we all should brace ourselves for a couple more heatwaves this summer. 

A normal hot spell will feel like nothing after what you just went through.