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October 2021 Observations and Discussion


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As we near the time of year when the seasons really begin to change, is nature going to serve up timely changes for the month of October???  The modeling is surely pointing that way as we near the end of September.  Using the idea of the LRC that Gary Lezak has developed, we look forward to seeing a new cyclical pattern setting up in the early parts of October.  Right on cue, the modeling is illustrating something different and a potentially big clue to what this month could have in store.  Will there be troughs galore that dig into the west/southwest???  High Lat Blocking???  If you have been paying attn to the recent shifts in the modeling, there are some fascinating things showing up.

First off, what is becoming evidently clear, this month is going to feature immense blocking across the majority of Canada.  Let's focus in on the Oct 6th/7th time frame when we usually witness the 1st few days of the new LRC pattern setting up over the mid lats.  The latest GFS is suggesting one hellova blocked up pattern of N.A....

gfs_z500a_namer_34.png

 

It's not just the GFS, the almighty Euro is also on top of it...

ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.png

 

It is my personal opinion, I believe that we are going to see an extraordinarily active storm track farther south than normal next month into So Cal compared to recent years.  If you recall, we had the storms track into the west, but they did farther north, thus leading to many hard cutters.  We lacked the blocking but not the storms....this year, however, we will have the Blocking along with Storms...a much different wx pattern is dialing up.  When was the last time we saw a map like this???  The 1st major storm of the new LRC is showing up on the models to target the west around the 9th-11th period.  Who's ready for storm tracking??  The Rockies and Sierra's are going to get hit by Ol' Man Winter...the lower Sierra's are looking mighty fine.

 1.gif

 

This is not going to be a "one and done" scenario...if the Euro Weeklies are right, it's just the beginning...a Fast start to winter is heading for the mountains and ski resorts in the west.  How about our Sub???  The LR signals I have been studying are showing up for a mid/late Oct push towards colder/active wx.  1st snows this month???  It is very likely that by Halloween we will indeed see some peeps on here see accumulating snows.  Let's discuss and join together in what will be a lively Sub Forum!

 

2.png

 

 

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

As we near the time of year when the seasons really begin to change, is nature going to serve up timely changes for the month of October???  The modeling is surely pointing that way as we near the end of September.  Using the idea of the LRC that Gary Lezak has developed, we look forward to seeing a new cyclical pattern setting up in the early parts of October.  Right on cue, the modeling is illustrating something different and a potentially big clue to what this month could have in store.  Will there be troughs galore that dig into the west/southwest???  High Lat Blocking???  If you have been paying attn to the recent shifts in the modeling, there are some fascinating things showing up.

First off, what is becoming evidently clear, this month is going to feature immense blocking across the majority of Canada.  Let's focus in on the Oct 6th/7th time frame when we usually witness the 1st few days of the new LRC pattern setting up over the mid lats.  The latest GFS is suggesting one hellova blocked up pattern of N.A....

gfs_z500a_namer_34.png

 

It's not just the GFS, the almighty Euro is also on top of it...

ecmwf_z500a_namer_9.png

 

It is my personal opinion, I believe that we are going to see an extraordinarily active storm track farther south than normal next month into So Cal compared to recent years.  If you recall, we had the storms track into the west, but they did farther north, thus leading to many hard cutters.  We lacked the blocking but not the storms....this year, however, we will have the Blocking along with Storms...a much different wx pattern is dialing up.  When was the last time we saw a map like this???  The 1st major storm of the new LRC is showing up on the models to target the west around the 9th-11th period.  Who's ready for storm tracking??  The Rockies and Sierra's are going to get hit by Ol' Man Winter...the lower Sierra's are looking mighty fine.

 1.gif

 

This is not going to be a "one and done" scenario...if the Euro Weeklies are right, it's just the beginning...a Fast start to winter is heading for the mountains and ski resorts in the west.  How about our Sub???  The LR signals I have been studying are showing up for a mid/late Oct push towards colder/active wx.  1st snows this month???  It is very likely that by Halloween we will indeed see some peeps on here see accumulating snows.  Let's discuss and join together in what will be a lively Sub Forum!

 

2.png

 

 

What a promising start to the new pattern.  Now the question becomes will the blocking show up in each cycle, if it does it will be a great winter!

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I don't think we're gonna see a 16" storm here in early October like 2019.

Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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Sign me up to the beginning stages of the new LRC if the QPF forecast for the next week is right! Granted it's hard to tell if this current rain is part of the old/new or a combo. Can't wait to see what the month of October will bring for all of us! 

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Based on the 12z GFS, 8 out of the next 10 days in KC will be above normal temps.  The two that are below normal are only because of expected rain on those days.   Last year, Sept. and Oct. were both below normal here, and then things flipped for November though January.  So I suppose there's nothing really to be gleaned from a warm start to Autumn.  But it's still a bit concerning/frustrating.  

 

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21 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Based on the 12z GFS, 8 out of the next 10 days in KC will be above normal temps.  The two that are below normal are only because of expected rain on those days.   Last year, Sept. and Oct. were both below normal here, and then things flipped for November though January.  So I suppose there's nothing really to be gleaned from a warm start to Autumn.  But it's still a bit concerning/frustrating.  

 

We've had snow the last 3 October's and that has not translated to a snowy winter. The good news is we have storms and blocking showing up to start October and let's wait and see what the temps do once we're in October. I have a feeling several of those storms showing up will wrap in some cool air.

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TOP Fun facts to set the table....

Here in TOP we've had measurable snow the last four October's (2017-2020: 0.4", 0.5", 1.5", 0.6") after having no measurable snow in the previous twenty (1997-2016)! Oct 1996 had 8.0" which was the year of the "October Surprise".

Six of the last seven winters here have seen less than one foot of snow (seasonal avg = 17"):

  • 14-15: 10.3"
  • 15-16:  4.9"
  • 16-17:  6.6"
  • 17-18:  8.1"
  • 18-19: 27.1" (yay!)
  • 19-20: 11.7"
  • 20-21: 11.3"

That's exactly 80" of total snow over the past seven winters (avg=11.4"). 😡

So I sure hope we have a snowier winter this year...just to break the monotony if nothing else... 😐

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  • 21-22 snowfalls >=3": none; Season total: 0.0" (0% of normal 17.0")
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The latest Euro Weeklies MJO forecast has a very interesting look to it...one thing in particular, right as the LRC begins the new cycle, notice the "beeline" it takes us right out of Phase 5 during the 1st few days of Oct and heads into the "null phase".  Now, while the models mean avg is positioned in the null phase throughout the run, there are hints that many ensemble members push it into Phases 7/8/1 in the extended.  This is a powerful clue and if we can continue to see the model advertise this potential in Oct, boy, things are looking even more pretty and paint an even greater picture for the Winter.  I'm encouraged to see that we could finally have the MJO  play ball this cold season instead of rotating through the warm phases at the wrong times as it has in years past.  Just another atmospheric driver to ponder on.

1.gif

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The rain trend is not good for my area this weekend.  Models are trending toward keeping the first event over western Iowa, then the second event south.  Another long, dry period is expected to follow.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Updated grids have now taken out heavy rain wording here. latest HRRR is as dry as a bone for most of IA including the OMA area for tomorrow.  Imagine that. 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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So, today's JMA weeklies are interesting as we get towards the 2nd half of October.  Just like the Euro Weeklies, this model is also seeing the possibility of the MJO heading into Phases 8/1 later in the month.  Before we get there, however, the active pattern kicks into high gear sparking AN temps and precip for a large part of the Sub.  As the La Nina pattern develops, the storm track appears to track far enough south to include California.  Bodes well for the torched region out west.  

 

The eastern Canadian Block is massive...

2.png

Week 2 Temp/Precip...

Y202109.D2912_gl2.png.

 

East Coast Hurricane threat looks to be heightened...active northern stream...

 

Y202109.D2912_gl0.png

 

Week 3-4 we see a shift in the pattern in the SW but the blocking continues to be strong in Canada that will drive the storms into our Sub Forum.

3.png

Temp/Precip....the west warms while the east cools....

Y202109.D2912_gl2.png

 

Rising motion in the western Indian Ocean provides a clue the MJO could head into the Phases 8/1 later in the month...east coast hurricane threat still rather high...

 

Y202109.D2912_gl0.png

.

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On the last run of the month, the CFSv2 is advertising a blow torch...except for....the desert SW and west coast!

 

1.gif

 

 

Here are the latest temp/precip maps...

 

CFSv2.NaT2m.20210930.202110.gif

 

What is really encouraging about this pattern, we will see bountiful precip....those drought maps will begin to shrink come October...

 

CFSv2.NaPrec.20210930.202110.gif

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Woah Baby!  Lightning, Thunder, and Deluge!   

Gotta love it!  That front crept in, then the heavens opened up.  Awesome sight. We really need it.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I haven’t seen it pour like that in eons.
30 minutes of hard rain where you could hardly see across the street. More on the way.    
 

That small red cell over Ft Worth just sat there and is creeping NE.  

93F4071E-32E0-4EA3-AEA5-C57FECF426CF.png

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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We will be opening up the month of October feeling like Summer.  Heading up into the mid/upper 80's with ample sunshine!  Get out and enjoy this gorgeous day...happy TGIF!  On a side note, I think by Halloween things will feel a whole lot different around these parts.  That's my gut feeling and the signals I'm looking into are pointing towards this idea.

If this is any indication to how the new LRC is setting up, it's going to be a bountiful snow season out west....in search of Snow...#SierraSnow

2.png

1.png

 

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11 minutes ago, Tom said:

@Clinton or any KC folks, did you hear if Gary believes the storm that's coming through over the weekend is part of the late Oct '21 system???  Just curious to hear if we are on the same page.

Yes he mentioned that in yesterday's blog, he mentioned how it was related to a storm we had at the end of the year and first of Jan.

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7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Yes he mentioned that in yesterday's blog, he mentioned how it was related to a storm we had at the end of the year and first of Jan.

Awesome, bc it not only dumped snow in AZ/NM in late Dec but it cycled thru yesterday and dumped snow again.  The LRC is so fascinating.  

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14 minutes ago, Tom said:

Awesome, bc it not only dumped snow in AZ/NM in late Dec but it cycled thru yesterday and dumped snow again.  The LRC is so fascinating.  

Our first major storm of the new pattern may be starting to come together around the 11th-12th. Possibly a southern Colorado low? Yesterday the Euro and some of its ensembles showed this. Seems like it fits with your BSR that you mentioned awhile back.

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Last night’s take on rain -  3 1/2” !   
This fell in under an hour.  Could hardly breath the rain was so heavy.  
A lot of lightning.   

More rain on the way. 60% chance today. 80% tomorrow.  Temps in the 80’s Lows mid 60’s.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I was just saying the other day that I thought the color change of the trees was slow this year.  Last evening I took a drive around town and color has exploded.  Already seeing some leaves that have fallen on yards.  With the rain, the grass remains green and fairly lush for this late in the season.  Always a great time of year as the seasons really start changing. 

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3km NAM and HRRR don't look good for widespread precip over the weekend.  Big disappointment considering the global models showed widespread 1 to 3 inch amounts earlier in the week.  Dry patterns are tough to break.

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That rainfall forecast completely fell apart. No cool spells in sight either. In fact, there still hasn't been a day at KLNK with the high below 70. The latest first sub-70 day is October 9th, going back to 1897. Every other year had achieved that by Aug or Sept. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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3 hours ago, Jayhawker85 said:

just 1 more week until the new LRC starts!! cant wait for a whole new pattern!

Hopefully Gary's right that the models have difficulty this time of year getting things right.  Otherwise, the new pattern will be starting off with hot air streaming north into the plains yet again.  

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25 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Hopefully Gary's right that the models have difficulty this time of year getting things right.  Otherwise, the new pattern will be starting off with hot air streaming north into the plains yet again.  

last year started warm and dry, luckily this is the time of the year where models change drastically from day to day 

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Winter has already arrived in Alaska.

 

 

Middle Tanana Valley-
Including Fairbanks, Fort Wainwright, Eielson AFB, Ester,
North Pole, Moose Creek, Two Rivers, Fox, Chatanika,
Chena Hot Springs, and Sourdough Camp
459 AM AKDT Fri Oct 1 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
1 PM AKDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on difficult travel conditions.
  Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches, with localized
  amounts up to 8 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Middle Tanana Valley.

* WHEN...Noon today to 1 PM Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Look for reduced visibilities at times.
  Areas of blowing and drifting snow.

 

 

 

Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country-
Including Tok, Tanacross, Eagle, Tetlin, Northway, Alcan,
Chicken, and Boundary
459 AM AKDT Fri Oct 1 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 PM AKDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Travel will be very difficult to
  impossible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9 inches, with
  localized amounts up to 14 inches, are expected.

* WHERE...Upper Tanana Valley and the Fortymile Country.

* WHEN...6 PM today to 7 PM Sunday.
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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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Only 2 nights even close to the 40s over the next 10 nights. UnBELIEVABLE.

Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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23 hours ago, Tom said:

The latest Euro Weeklies MJO showing more amplification than previous runs into Phases 8/1 and possibly into 2???

1.gif

I don't even want that yet, I'd rather put that off by a month. I just want seasonable temps that make it seem like there's an endgame for summer.

Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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3 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

This would be a record high temp for KC.   Does anyone know whether the GFS now has an extra warm bias?  It's forecast high temps are running pretty consistently above our local NWS office's forecast highs.    gfs_T2m_us_32.thumb.png.56bfda47befc3d0be496d2f3d76f7073.png  

It has been having a tremendous warm bias this entire past summer.  Some posters out in NE mentioned how it consistently showed 100's D5 and beyond that never materialized.  Take it with a grain of salt.

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25 minutes ago, Tom said:

It has been having a tremendous warm bias this entire past summer.  Some posters out in NE mentioned how it consistently showed 100's D5 and beyond that never materialized.  Take it with a grain of salt.

Past 2 summers. I remember it launching us well into the 100s in September 2020 too.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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I had to flip the A/C on yesterday as it was a bit to warm outside with a touch of humidity.  Hit a high of 85F and might still have to turn on the A/C later next week if we get one of those hard cutters to come through.  Meanwhile, I'll be looking forward to the somewhat cooler wx next week near seasonal norms but overnight temps will be warmer than avg. 

I sure like what the 0z Euro is showing through Monday...

1.png

 

Is the dry trend about to reverse course as the new LRC sets up???  Models are def pointing towards a wetter than avg pattern over the next 2 weeks.  An interesting system has been showing up on the model runs in this blocked up pattern (Omega Block).  I'm wondering if these will be the 1st few new days of the LRC come mid next week.  A cut-off ULL is poised to take shape down near the Gulf Coast and slowly migrate due N into the GL's region by next Fri.  Let's see if this becomes the 1st system we track of the new pattern.

Over the next 10 days, a stripe of AN precip for the eastern Sub...

2.png

 

On another note, the west will feel the early onset of Winter...but, the question remains, will one of of the systems that ejects out of the Rockies spin up and deliver 1st flakes for our Sub??

3.png

 

0z GFS showing the 1st weenie run of the cold season... @FAR_Weather @Beltrami Island  Octo-bomb???  There are a few ensemble members at this very LR that show some monster wound up storms during this time frame.  Something to ponder on during this dull period.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_54.png

 

 

 

 

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53 minutes ago, Tom said:

0z GFS showing the 1st weenie run of the cold season... @FAR_Weather @Beltrami Island  Octo-bomb???  There are a few ensemble members at this very LR that show some monster wound up storms during this time frame.  Something to ponder on during this dull period.

Clown range so I doubt it happens, but it wouldn't be unprecedented. See 2018 and 2019 for further information.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

I had to flip the A/C on yesterday as it was a bit to warm outside with a touch of humidity.  Hit a high of 85F and might still have to turn on the A/C later next week if we get one of those hard cutters to come through.  Meanwhile, I'll be looking forward to the somewhat cooler wx next week near seasonal norms but overnight temps will be warmer than avg. 

I sure like what the 0z Euro is showing through Monday...

1.png

 

Is the dry trend about to reverse course as the new LRC sets up???  Models are def pointing towards a wetter than avg pattern over the next 2 weeks.  An interesting system has been showing up on the model runs in this blocked up pattern (Omega Block).  I'm wondering if these will be the 1st few new days of the LRC come mid next week.  A cut-off ULL is poised to take shape down near the Gulf Coast and slowly migrate due N into the GL's region by next Fri.  Let's see if this becomes the 1st system we track of the new pattern.

Over the next 10 days, a stripe of AN precip for the eastern Sub...

2.png

 

On another note, the west will feel the early onset of Winter...but, the question remains, will one of of the systems that ejects out of the Rockies spin up and deliver 1st flakes for our Sub??

3.png

 

0z GFS showing the 1st weenie run of the cold season... @FAR_Weather @Beltrami Island  Octo-bomb???  There are a few ensemble members at this very LR that show some monster wound up storms during this time frame.  Something to ponder on during this dull period.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_54.png

 

 

 

 

A storm in that time period has been showing up consistently on the long range models but every run has a different take on how the storm evolves and where it goes. This has to be the toughest week for the models as a new pattern sets up. I enjoy watching them try to grasp the new pattern, as I have no clue what will happen.

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NOAA has my area in the above avg precip area for October, but models are bone dry through mid month.

 

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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