snow_wizard Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 1970 is an analog yet again. I literally can't remember the last day that year didn't show up. We'll see if anything resembling the rare double bottom November cold snap that year happens next month. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The forecasters are starting back peddle on the aurora now. Now the forecast is G1 to G3. Kind of reminds me of a blown snowstorm forecast. Not even close to the same comparison. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The forecasters are starting back peddle on the aurora now. Now the forecast is G1 to G3. Kind of reminds me of a blown snowstorm forecast. Tragic. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 Still not noticing any wind. Temperature fall slowed down. 36-38° across most of the Bothell area. Been keeping an eye on the north sky. Not seeing anything yet. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 This really fizzled. Dang. It sort of reminds me of when arctic air/boundary hangs up around Olympia and in Portland metro we get 33-36 F rain. Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 Low solar strikes again. 1 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The forecasters are starting back peddle on the aurora now. Now the forecast is G1 to G3. Kind of reminds me of a blown snowstorm forecast. Boo! We finally get a clear night and everything... 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 12 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: Not even close to the same comparison. Left in the dry vs left in the dark 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 33 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The forecasters are starting back peddle on the aurora now. Now the forecast is G1 to G3. Kind of reminds me of a blown snowstorm forecast. Poor comparison. Disappointing no show for sure. By in large, this is a larger solar flare than the previous one. It still could happen by peak forecast hours but wouldn't count on it. Space weather is vastly different, hard to compare this to a blown snow forecast Jim. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, Cloud said: Poor comparison. Disappointing no show for sure. By in large, this is a larger solar flare than the previous one. It still could happen by peak forecast hours but wouldn't count on it. Space weather is vastly different, hard to compare this to a blown snow forecast Jim. I'm actually going to have to lean towards Jim on this one considering the media has been going on and on about the coming solar storm and northern lights. Local news kept hyping it up constantly. I see the comparison in that regard, but from a science standpoint, well no. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Cloud said: Bummer. Thanks for the update though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: I'm actually going to have to lean towards Jim on this one considering the media has been going on and on about the coming solar storm and northern lights. Local news kept hyping it up constantly. I see the comparison in that regard, but from a science standpoint, well no. This is where I also say that if you have the resources at your disposal then you can make your own assessment, but the updates are also quite rare compared to earth forecast. The last time we had any sort of update was at 0030 UTC or 5:30PM local. The media once again, by in large hype this one up because of the last aurora with numerous people sharing on social media. https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-forecast.txt 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: I'm actually going to have to lean towards Jim on this one considering the media has been going on and on about the coming solar storm and northern lights. Local news kept hyping it up constantly. I see the comparison in that regard, but from a science standpoint, well no. Exactly. I was also referring to the back peddling. First a foot, then a few inches, then maybe an inch, etc. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Cloud said: This is where I also say that if you have the resources at your disposal then you can make your own assessment, but the updates are also quite rare compared to earth forecast. The last time we had any sort of update was at 0030 UTC or 5:30PM local. The media once again, by in large hype this one up because of the last aurora with numerous people sharing on social media. https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-forecast.txt This was a bigger CME, but for some reason it just didn't land the punch it was supposed to. Obviously space weather has a long way to go on the forecasting. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cloud said: This is where I also say that if you have the resources at your disposal then you can make your own assessment, but the updates are also quite rare compared to earth forecast. The last time we had any sort of update was at 0030 UTC or 5:30PM local. The media once again, by in large hype this one up because of the last aurora with numerous people sharing on social media. https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-forecast.txt You can actually get updates on the Kp every three hours. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 Eventually there is going to be a CME similar to the Carrington Event in 1859 and we are going to be royally screwed with no electricity or internet for possibly months. 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 Good thing it's not windy. Lot of outdoor fire pits going tonight. Starting to see patchy frost on lawns now. 35° in Canyon Park. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 Very windy here with some house shaking gusts. I am enjoying it. The EURO is EURO'ing tonight, or trying to. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: You can actually get updates on the Kp every three hours. Regardless, you can see from the scale on the chart that was posted by me that this is nowhere near what's being forecast, in terms of activities. Even in the 0-3 hour range. Quite different and fascinating. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 Hmmm.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Hmmm.... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Eventually there is going to be a CME similar to the Carrington Event in 1859 and we are going to be royally screwed with no electricity or internet for possibly months. Thanks to Facebook’s karma, I’d say it’s never been more likely. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: The ensembles represent 850mb temps(5000') The red line is 'climo' or the average temperature. The green line is the operational run forecast temperature. The white line is the ensemble mean temp or average of all 30 Ensemble members. All of the squiggly lines represent one of the 30 Ensemble members. You can see through Day 6 the ensemble members hold quite close to both the operational and ensemble mean. This signals good agreement. As we move beyond Day 6 you'll notice those members spread out further with more uncertainty long range. That's normal of course. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 Just now, Deweydog said: Thanks to Facebook’s karma, I’d say it’s never been more likely. I’ll drink to that. One Second After was a good book 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: The ensembles represent 850mb temps(5000') The red line is 'climo' or the average temperature. The green line is the operational run forecast temperature. The white line is the ensemble mean temp or average of all 30 Ensemble members. All of the squiggly lines represent one of the 30 Ensemble members. You can see through Day 6 the ensemble members hold quite close to both the operational and ensemble mean. This signals good agreement. As we move beyond Day 6 you'll notice those members spread out further with more uncertainty long range. That's normal of course. Oh ya sorry I know what the graph is I was just trying to guess a) why you were sayinghmmm and b) where we go from here 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 00z ECMWF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 Good night all Happy Halloween 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 44 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: I'm actually going to have to lean towards Jim on this one considering the media has been going on and on about the coming solar storm and northern lights. Local news kept hyping it up constantly. I see the comparison in that regard, but from a science standpoint, well no. I didn't notice any real hyping on our news up here, they stated repeatedly that there was a chance but no guarantee of seeing it. It's like the odds of a visible aurora is a given just because there is a chance nowadays, I would say social media hype from non scientists (some on this forum) are a bigger factor. Just like everything else in our society today, a chance or a thought is real, when in reality it's most likely not. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted October 31, 2021 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 Down to 54 at PDX. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 Sitting at 38* on the island right now. Definitely a night where it is warmer on the hill tops then lower areas. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 Unfortunately this northern lights forecast appears to be a bust. We should be getting into the peak but as of 2 hours ago, NWS Spokane reported Kp sitting at 2 and ideally you want to be above 5. Another good indicator is looking at the Banff live webcam. Nothing to show for as of 2AM (screenshot). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 Fraser outflow keeping things a well-mixed 40˚F here. Looking increasingly like the aurora is a no-show. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 Until the next opportunity! It was fun tracking it. Learned quite a lot. In the mean time, down to 37. Chilly morning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 Down to 42F with the occasional shower. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 Pretty darn chilly here where I’m at on the south end of orcas with 0 wind. Keep being disturbed by raccoons rustling around nearby. They seem to be responsible for the Aurora “rug pull” tonight lol. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 Really nice sunset last night. Disappointed the Aurora didn’t work out but still having a great time. Didn’t even know it would be a possibility until I was up here so no biggie. 9 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted October 31, 2021 Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 Temperature bouncing between 51 and 36 so far this morning with the wind and no wind haha I see Fairbanks set a record high of 48 yesterday at 1142 PM and is currently 47. 3 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted October 31, 2021 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2021 The only lights I saw were the Gresham police blocking off a few blocks. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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