snow_wizard Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 3 hours ago, The Swamp said: I was able to get out in the yard this afternoon and cut my grass. Grass keeps growing because it hasn't been cold. I know Jim tells everyone a .5 degree deviation for October was amazing and all but the grass doesn't lie. Grass doesn't lie. It's still growing and needs to be cut. Not cold. Not be any ones standards. This is the craziest La Nina I have seen. My guess is this turn out to be a winter. Oh yeah, it might be 48 and 38 for a few days. Shall we all throw a party? It's a warning shot right? I've said it before and I'll say it again. Screw warning shots. I don't need any warning or saving the good stuff until later. Bring it on NOW. The nights will be colder than that. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 11 minutes ago, Cloud said: I can dig it up for you for Eugene.. just for November alone. Haven't had a dry day so far with nearly 5" of rain. Interesting! Looks like Eugene had 2.55” in September 2.74” in October and 4.77” this month (not sure if the data on the nws Portland website is the same one here) but that’s 10.06” in that mid September through now timeframe. 2 inches less than Portland and 4 inches less than here. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Looks like Eugene had 2.55” in September 2.74” in October and 4.77” this month (not sure if the data on the new Portland website is the same one here) but that’s 10.06” in that mid September through now timeframe. 2 inches less than Portland and 4 inches less than here. Should be. 4.77" for Nov is spot on. SEA is 5.05" for the month. Screwed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 14 minutes ago, Cloud said: I can dig it up for you for Eugene.. just for November alone. Haven't had a dry day so far with nearly 5" of rain. Interesting! Very well then. Worth noting that the drought also progressively gets worse as one goes south, so though it seems like you look upon the complaints of some here with scathing criticism, keep in mind that said areas need more rain as a whole to catch up. 2 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 Just now, Cloud said: Should be. 4.77" for Nov is spot on. Screwed. I do think Eugene actually averages a bit more rain than Seattle by a couple inches. It’s not like they haven’t had much less rain than here though just a few inches less over the past 2 months. But still I’m sure the updated drought maps next week will look much different in Oregon than the last update that came out yesterday. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 00z GFS = much drier for you Wahingtonians 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 Regarding whether October was cold or not...the first half was the coldest first half of October since 1990, and there were some days with much below normal temps. Nuff said. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 11 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: I guess they haven’t seen the latest euro run lol. Amazing how fast information gets stale in 2021. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 GFS and NAM are in an entirely different world from the GEM/EURO. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, Requiem said: Very well then. Worth noting that the drought also progressively gets worse as one goes south, so though it seems like you look upon the complaints of some here with scathing criticism, keep in mind that said areas need more rain as a whole to catch up. Go back a few pages in this thread and see that I posted the drought map for both OR and WA and have stated that OR do need much more rain than up here due to its drought conditions. I'm not being inconsiderate, I'm simply pointing out facts that some of you complain way too much on here as if it's still bone dry down there since fall began. Which is not remotely close to being true. I would love for the next AR to hit your area, but we can't control the weather. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: 00z GFS = much drier for you Wahingtonians I don't know if I'd say much drier. The real area of concern appears to be the area of the Cascades that effects the Skagit River on this run. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 Just now, Cloud said: Go back a few pages in this thread and see that I posted the drought map for both OR and WA and have stated that OR do need much more rain than up here due to its drought conditions. I'm not being inconsiderate, I'm simply pointing out facts that some of you complain way too much on here as if it's bone dry down there since fall began. Which is not remotely close to being true. I would love for the next AR to hit your area, but we can't control the weather. Never accused you of being inconsiderate. All I'm trying to say here is exactly what you've already stated-- some areas need more rain. I don't think anyone is at all insinuating that it has thus far been bone dry down here-- that's a ridiculous point of view because as you said, it really hasn't. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 2 hours ago, Phil said: How exactly did you augment drainage? I figured out the big issue! Went back up there now that it stopped raining (moonlight now actually) and what had happened was the force of that much water shoved a whole ton of drain rock that had been there from the original drainage from the previous owners of the 60 acres did, it came all the way down and completely packed the large culvert pipe we put in so we could have tractor access to our property. Tomorrow I will be unstuffing a 15’ pipe and my neighbor will be sandbagging the crap out of everything as a precaution. Tonight was close to a disaster. 6 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, Requiem said: Never accused you of being inconsiderate. All I'm trying to say here is exactly what you've already stated-- some areas need more rain. I don't think anyone is at all insinuating that it has thus far been bone dry down here-- that's a ridiculous point of view because as you said, it really hasn't. Insinuating you get "table scraps" down there suggests otherwise. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, Cloud said: Insinuating you get "table scraps" down there suggests otherwise. I said table scraps. I was referring to the upcoming AR. Am I incorrect? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I don't know if I'd say much drier. The real area of concern appears to be the area of the Cascades that effects the Skagit River on this run. He means relative to the 18z Euro. The GFS shows about 1/3 of what the Euro showed for the Central Sound. Focus is well to the north in SW BC. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 21 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: 00z GFS = much drier for you Wahingtonians Not for Skagit/Whatcom counties though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 39 minutes ago, snow drift said: From Nate Mantua today - first monthly reading under -2.0 since September 2012. 2021 PDO Index monthly values: January -0.16 February -0.54 March -1.17 April -0.91 May -0.94 June -1.18 July -1.87 August -1.12 September -1.53 October -2.55 Wow! I thought he had disappeared off the face of the Earth. I've been using the NCEP values for months now. This is one of the most robust -PDO events on record. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 Lol guys I think we should just be thankful that there’s been plenty of rain to help the drought concerns in Oregon…things are looking good down there especially with the La Niña we’re in. I’m pretty confident by the time March rolls around Oregon the drought map will look much better than it does now. Hopefully spring 2022 isn’t as dry as the last couple springs down that way that’s critical. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Not for Skagit/Whatcom counties though. It shows ungodly amounts for the extreme southern BC and extreme northwestern WA Cascades alright. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: Lol guys I think we should just be thankful that there’s been plenty of rain to help the drought concerns in Oregon…things are looking good down there especially with the La Niña we’re in. I’m pretty confident by the time March rolls around Oregon the drought map will look much better than it does now. Hopefully spring 2022 isn’t as dry as the last couple springs down that way that’s critical. I am really thankful for the past 8 weeks or so. Like you said, hopefully we can at least have a normal spring and we should be in much better shape. I will never stop wanting more rain though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 18 minutes ago, Cloud said: Insinuating you get "table scraps" down there suggests otherwise. Did I ever insinuate that? (Hint: the answer is no) As far as the other poster? Pretty sure he meant for this AR, which isn't far from the truth. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: I am really thankful for the past 8 weeks or so. Like you said, hopefully we can at least have a normal spring and we should be in much better shape. I will never stop wanting more rain though. Yeah I get it man I’m always rooting for lots of rain (besides getting 6” like the euro). One of the big problems the last couple years is the dry springs that we’ve had. Can be a really wet fall/winter but if there’s only 50% of normal rainfall during the spring then that’s not good for the summer. Has been really dry to start the summers off which obviously doesn't help the wildfire situation. Would have figured last spring would’ve been wetter considering that was also a nina. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 12 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said: I said table scraps. I was referring to the upcoming AR. Am I incorrect? It happens and unfortunately, base on the WV trajectory of this system, it's going to come in a bit farther north to have an impactful event for PDX. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 39 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Regarding whether October was cold or not...the first half was the coldest first half of October since 1990, and there were some days with much below normal temps. Nuff said. It was an average October... and we’ve been torching since mid October. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 Sorry late to the 00z GFS party. Did I miss anything great? Oh and can someone research the the tendency for -PDO cold phase with AR events? I'm really intrigued to know this. Thanks. 00z ECMWF in 53 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Sorry late to the 00z GFS party. Did I miss anything great? Oh and can someone research the the tendency for -PDO cold phase with AR events? I'm really intrigued to know this. Thanks. 00z ECMWF in 53 minutes No the GFS blows Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: No the GFS blows Yeah I just took a peek. Too progressive, but that's not surprising. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: No the GFS blows 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 50 minutes ago, MossMan said: I figured out the big issue! Went back up there now that it stopped raining (moonlight now actually) and what had happened was the force of that much water shoved a whole ton of drain rock that had been there from the original drainage from the previous owners of the 60 acres did, it came all the way down and completely packed the large culvert pipe we put in so we could have tractor access to our property. Tomorrow I will be unstuffing a 15’ pipe and my neighbor will be sandbagging the crap out of everything as a precaution. Tonight was close to a disaster. Yeah that’ll do it. Hope it goes well! 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 For as much as it rains here, the soil drains very well, water has never been much of a problem. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 00z GFS - Strong jet extension over the Western Pacific way out in la-la land, so not a great chance the Pacific slows down anytime soon. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 00z GEM 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z GEM 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly Omg what a nightmare 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 13 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 00z GFS - Strong jet extension over the Western Pacific way out in la-la land, so not a great chance the Pacific slows down anytime soon. I think DeweyDoggyMatty has an idea as to when it might slow down! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Omg what a nightmare All is not lost. It could be far worse. Intense cold is building to our north. Patience. Baby steps. Toddler Trots(c)Rob 2014? 10 Day GIF: 850mb temps 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, MossMan said: I think DeweyDoggyMatty has an idea as to when it might slow down! Matt knows everything. 00z EPS (Pivotal) in 3 hours 3 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 We went out for dinner in North Bend tonight... it is incredibly nice outside. Moon and stars are shining and there is no wind at all and it's warm. My wife knew it was not raining but she instinctively braced herself walking out of the restaurant for rain and wind and was pleasantly surprised. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Omg what a nightmare Endless rain in November is a great sign. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 13, 2021 Report Share Posted November 13, 2021 29 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: For as much as it rains here, the soil drains very well, water has never been much of a problem. Same here... we live on the side of a rocky ridge so all the water that falls up here runs off very quickly down into the Snoqualmie River and out. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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