PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Anti Marine Layer]

Rain waters the fake grass

[North_County]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

It shows ungodly amounts for the extreme southern BC and extreme northwestern WA Cascades alright.

This. It's not so much that the totals have significantly decreased. The bullseye is just moving around.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1933-34

[Anti Marine Layer]

9 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

1933-34

Must have been a wet one.

[Tyler Mode]

So nice to walk outside without getting completely drenched and you can see the moon.  All the way down to 52 degrees...brrrrrrr

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

So nice to walk outside without getting completely drenched and you can see the moon.  All the way down to 52 degrees...brrrrrrr

We said the same thing tonight.   

[TT-SEA]

7 hours ago, bainbridgekid said:

Back edge of the rain should be through Seattle by around 3 PM. Looks like they will get very little in the next 24 hours before the next round starts late tomorrow afternoon/evening.

I'll be at the Husky game at 4 PM so holding out hope that round holds off as long as possible. WRF showed nothing in Seattle till 7 PM.

ECMWF shows the deluge beginning again in Seattle tomorrow between 4-5 p.m.     Going to be nasty for the game.   Too bad its not a noon or 1 p.m. kick off.  

[ShawniganLake]

Ended up with 0.05” of rain today. A pretty decent day really.  It was nice not suiting up in rain gear for a change

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

The 4km WRF-GFS is way drier than the operational GFS.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1, 2

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 Dig little trough, DIG!

[Gradient Keeper]

Rain totals ending 4 PM Monday

[snow drift]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow!  I thought he had disappeared off the face of the Earth.  I've been using the NCEP values for months now.  This is one of the most robust -PDO events on record.

I went to another site, and it shows an astounding -3.06 in October!

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3.5 850mb temps. Chilly through

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 3.5 850mb temps. Chilly through

Jim gonna cream his pants 

[Gradient Keeper]

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, The Swamp said:

i hope it doesn't flood, wow, that's some serious water into The Swamp

Is your place a rain magnet? Hence why you call it The Swamp?

[umadbro]

Weak little gust front

[Gradient Keeper]

Strong east wind develops Wednesday morning.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Jim gonna cream his pants 

Somebody up north is going to get snow on Monday night and Tuesday morning...

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, umadbro said:

Weak little gust front

Small, but pretty neat. Nice find

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

[TT-SEA]

Snoqualmie River has peaked now and is starting to come down... looks like the peak was around 29cfs which a far cry from the 52cfs the graph showed yesterday morning.      It ended up at the high end of the minor flooding category as opposed to major flooding.   We didn't see any standing water in North Bend this evening.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 Ugly, ugly pattern

[smerfylicious]

Sultan might flood up to US 2 if some of these runs are to be believed. Guess I'll have to take Stevens Pass to Seattle for work haha

[SouthHillFrosty]

5 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Is your place a rain magnet? Hence why you call it The Swamp?

It’s called the swamp because when it snows everywhere, it rains in the “swamp” aka Puyallup. It’s a notorious snow hole for a variety of reasons 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

The 00z ECMWF is looking more progressive later next week. Nothing too exciting, but no dry stretch. 

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 6 Ugly, ugly pattern

[Gradient Keeper]

October 2021 PDO -3.06 is the lowest since October 1955 which was -3.35.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[GHweatherChris]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

We went out for dinner in North Bend tonight... it is incredibly nice outside.   Moon and stars are shining and there is no wind at all and it's warm.   My wife knew it was not raining but she instinctively braced herself walking out of the restaurant for rain and wind and was pleasantly surprised. 

How could someone be pleasantly surprised for something they knew was gonna happen?

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm wondering if after this big rainy pattern with the succession of ARs finally abates Monday night/Tuesday morning that shortly after we may see big model changes in our favor. I would be a bit more confident with that if we were at the end of the month into December. We shall see. C'MON!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Deweydog]

Severe clear!

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

How could someone be pleasantly surprised for something they knew was gonna happen?

She was pleasantly surprised that her instinct was wrong... she knew it was not raining when we went inside but did not think about it when walking out.   I saw her wince and put her head down to brace herself before opening the door and then she smiled when she got outside.

[SnowWillarrive]

18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Somebody up north is going to get snow on Monday night and Tuesday morning...

 

Move that right over King County. 

[RentonHill]

Just now, DJ Droppin said:

Day 8

This looks ok? Or still too much left to right?

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, SnowChild said:

Move that right over King County. 

We are all Randy 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

This looks ok? Or still too much left to right?

Still looks too progressive west of ~140 W. I would be okay with a block setting up there though.