Chewbacca Defense Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: Yeah I could never do the HOA thing, too many times it turns into a few power trippy people going nuts that your car is not parked straight enough or you haven’t deadheaded your Rhododendron quickly enough, etc. We have a pretty mellow HOA where I live. I was actually on the board for several years. Our board doesn't have a lot of teeth to get crazy, which was good, but we had enough to deal with the most blatant issues. I would go nuts in one of *those* HOA's. 2 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: It’s not going anywhere in the next 12-16 hours. Parts of the Fraser valley are going to be devastated Yeah... running the hourly loop it appears that the heavy rain will continue up there until around noon tomorrow. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Skagit River near Concrete has now reached major flood stage. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Skagit River near Concrete has now reached major flood stage. This is going to be a really bad situation. I hope people take the evacuation recommendations seriously. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: That map runs from 10 p.m. today through 10 p.m. tomorrow... so it already eliminates the rain that has fallen since 4 p.m. It shows the remaining rain for this event starting now. ah...gotcha..... So if that pans out, I'll be at around 5" for this event. Just nuts..... 2 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: It’s not going anywhere in the next 12-16 hours. Parts of the Fraser valley are going to be devastated Yeah it’s not looking good. Doesn’t seem like it’s gonna move. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 1 minute ago, MossMan said: This is going to be a really bad situation. I hope people take the evacuation recommendations seriously. Yeah it is, and I really hope they do take it very seriously. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 The ECMWF still shows some lowland snow before the precip cuts off. Looks like Arlington is the sweet spot. If it's right they get several inches of snow and then drop into the low 20s Tuesday night. All in all it's remarkable how much colder the ECMWF is than the GFS for tomorrow night and Tuesday night both. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 It appears that the Snoqualmie River has already peaked and is coming down now... the front moves through too fast tomorrow to cause additional issues. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Yeah it’s not looking good. Doesn’t seem like it’s gonna move. We could be looking at massive devastation along the Skagit. Too bad this thing got hung up there for so long. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said: That sounds horrible if anyone is trapped under the landslides. Good lord. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 49 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Good analysis. I wonder what the ensembles may reveal. 00z ECMWF in 12 minutes It won't matter. Tomorrow hour 384 will show a totally different day. No consistency at all. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 The latest forecast for Mount Vernon is dire. 13 feet above flood stage and way above the previous record. 1 1 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The latest forecast for Mount Vernon is dire. 13 feet above flood stage and way above the previous record. That sounds awful. I've always felt that there were areas of that town that looked like MAJOR flood risks when driving through. Especially the old town area. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 The ECMWF at day 10 is like a train wreck. Massive blocking and no sign of anything resembling a PV. EDIT: Oops. Somehow I was looking at the 12z. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 18 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said: We have a pretty mellow HOA where I live. I was actually on the board for several years. Our board doesn't have a lot of teeth to get crazy, which was good, but we had enough to deal with the most blatant issues. I would go nuts in one of *those* HOA's. If I buy a house in a hoa, my sole mission would be to destroy and disband the hoa 1 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Day 6 C'mon block! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Euro shows some wet snow up here on Thursday evening 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Day 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 33 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: 12/25/1980 my man. Freak event. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 UPDATE Skagit River near Concrete new forecast crest over 41' 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Day 9'er Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Ugly, ugly, ugly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 30 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: That sounds horrible if anyone is trapped under the landslides. Good lord. There are people trapped. Sounds like a desperate situation. Help cannot access the area. Someone posted an update on the Canadian forum. “There are 2 mudslides a km apart. Our friend is stuck in between. He has called us multiple time to update us on the situation. He is scared!! There are about 80 cars and a couple semi trucks trapped between the washouts. About 12-15 cars got washed away in the first slide that was in front of him. He tried to help the people screaming in their buried cars but the power lines are down and the mountains are cracking all around so he had to get out of there. He said the were able to get a family out of a car that got pushed by the second slide, but there is a child that is in desperate need of medical attention. It’s such a sad situation. The feeling of helplessness is heartbreaking. The search and rescue can’t get passage into the area yet. Highways are trying to get all the cars parked in the safest position in case there are more slides.” 9 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said: There are people trapped. Sounds like a desperate situation. Help cannot access the area. Someone posted an update on the Canadian forum. “There are 2 mudslides a km apart. Our friend is stuck in between. He has called us multiple time to update us on the situation. He is scared!! There are about 80 cars and a couple semi trucks trapped between the washouts. About 12-15 cars got washed away in the first slide that was in front of him. He tried to help the people screaming in their buried cars but the power lines are down and the mountains are cracking all around so he had to get out of there. He said the were able to get a family out of a car that got pushed by the second slide, but there is a child that is in desperate need of medical attention. It’s such a sad situation. The feeling of helplessness is heartbreaking. The search and rescue can’t get passage into the area yet. Highways are trying to get all the cars parked in the safest position in case there are more slides.” That’s horrible. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said: There are people trapped. Sounds like a desperate situation. Help cannot access the area. Someone posted an update on the Canadian forum. “There are 2 mudslides a km apart. Our friend is stuck in between. He has called us multiple time to update us on the situation. He is scared!! There are about 80 cars and a couple semi trucks trapped between the washouts. About 12-15 cars got washed away in the first slide that was in front of him. He tried to help the people screaming in their buried cars but the power lines are down and the mountains are cracking all around so he had to get out of there. He said the were able to get a family out of a car that got pushed by the second slide, but there is a child that is in desperate need of medical attention. It’s such a sad situation. The feeling of helplessness is heartbreaking. The search and rescue can’t get passage into the area yet. Highways are trying to get all the cars parked in the safest position in case there are more slides.” I can't even imagine any of this. It is like a movie. No words. Just shaking my head really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: There are people trapped. Sounds like a desperate situation. Help cannot access the area. Someone posted an update on the Canadian forum. “There are 2 mudslides a km apart. Our friend is stuck in between. He has called us multiple time to update us on the situation. He is scared!! There are about 80 cars and a couple semi trucks trapped between the washouts. About 12-15 cars got washed away in the first slide that was in front of him. He tried to help the people screaming in their buried cars but the power lines are down and the mountains are cracking all around so he had to get out of there. He said the were able to get a family out of a car that got pushed by the second slide, but there is a child that is in desperate need of medical attention. It’s such a sad situation. The feeling of helplessness is heartbreaking. The search and rescue can’t get passage into the area yet. Highways are trying to get all the cars parked in the safest position in case there are more slides.” Oh my god Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Day 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: There are people trapped. Sounds like a desperate situation. Help cannot access the area. Someone posted an update on the Canadian forum. “There are 2 mudslides a km apart. Our friend is stuck in between. He has called us multiple time to update us on the situation. He is scared!! There are about 80 cars and a couple semi trucks trapped between the washouts. About 12-15 cars got washed away in the first slide that was in front of him. He tried to help the people screaming in their buried cars but the power lines are down and the mountains are cracking all around so he had to get out of there. He said the were able to get a family out of a car that got pushed by the second slide, but there is a child that is in desperate need of medical attention. It’s such a sad situation. The feeling of helplessness is heartbreaking. The search and rescue can’t get passage into the area yet. Highways are trying to get all the cars parked in the safest position in case there are more slides.” What a nightmare. Where is this exactly? 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: What a nightmare. Where is this exactly? From what I've seen on social media, I believe it's near Agassiz, BC. And yes, it sounds horrific. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: What a nightmare. Where is this exactly? Hwy 7. 5 miles east of Agassiz 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Just now, North_County said: From what I've seen on social media, I believe it's near Agassiz, BC. That sounds so scary and considering it’s going to rain a lot more the next 12 hours makes that a very terrifying situation. 1 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Yeah nobody should be driving near mountains or rivers up there, unless it involves evacuating. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 18 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: There are people trapped. Sounds like a desperate situation. Help cannot access the area. Someone posted an update on the Canadian forum. “There are 2 mudslides a km apart. Our friend is stuck in between. He has called us multiple time to update us on the situation. He is scared!! There are about 80 cars and a couple semi trucks trapped between the washouts. About 12-15 cars got washed away in the first slide that was in front of him. He tried to help the people screaming in their buried cars but the power lines are down and the mountains are cracking all around so he had to get out of there. He said the were able to get a family out of a car that got pushed by the second slide, but there is a child that is in desperate need of medical attention. It’s such a sad situation. The feeling of helplessness is heartbreaking. The search and rescue can’t get passage into the area yet. Highways are trying to get all the cars parked in the safest position in case there are more slides.” That is awful. Sounds like the Wellington disaster that killed 96 people not far from here. It was snow, a train trapped between 2 avalanches and it eventually got swept away by another one. https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/1910-stevens-pass-avalanche-still-deadliest-in-us-history/ 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 Just passed 1" on the day. Probably will end up being my only 1"+ day out of this storm despite getting almost 4" in the past 5 days. 1 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 15, 2021 Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: That is awful. Sounds like the Wellington disaster that killed 96 people not far from here. It was snow, a train trapped between 2 avalanches and it eventually got swept away by another one. https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/1910-stevens-pass-avalanche-still-deadliest-in-us-history/ Wow... thunder kicked off a massive avalanche. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2021 It was bound to happen. As hard as it is to imagine, this AR is overperforming where it is stalling. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.