LowerGarfield Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Just checked outside. 50F and overcast. 2 1 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 19 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Ahh the “weeklies”. Like most long range modeling their accuracy is generally not great beyond a couple weeks. Just sayin! Hence my excitement if they do. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 22 minutes ago, MossMan said: I think many if not most of us will soon be seeing the “S” word as every local media outlet calls it. That word? 1 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 51 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said: What is this sorcery!? It's telling him that it's time to shave. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Breezy! 50 degrees currently. .07” so far on the day. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, MossMan said: Breezy! 50 degrees currently. .07” so far on the day. Is the record broken yet? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: It's telling him that it's time to shave. I’m not shaving until February…My face will need the insulation from the coming winter madness! 3 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Appetizer around the 10-15th, significant event around Christmas? 4 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellsworb Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said: 12z GFS shows some lowland snow on Saturday morning. I'M IN THE BLUE ON THE EAST SHORE OF LAKE TAPPS!!! 4 1 Quote East Shore of Lake Tapps Bonney Lake, WA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 7 hours ago, Snownerd3000 said: Pretty sure I've read Judah Cohen talk about Ural blocking dislodging the PV. That looks like it's in the right area. Would jive with the forecast SSW mod month I didn't see that but did see some 10mb maps yesterday saying possible SSW in mid Dec which usually translates to arctic outbreak 4-6 weeks later ish. (mid Jan) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 I'm not sure I buy this precip type... 3 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 12z GFS shows some lowland snow on Saturday morning. And much more on Monday... 4 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 7 hours ago, snow_wizard said: Just looking at my records for November 2008 and 2016 and this certainly has elements of both. For observed weather this was a very good match to 2008 which was wet and just a bit warmer than this one. 2007 was both dry and cool. I hate to harp on 2007, but I'm just not seeing it. In spite of that I still consider it an analog on the technical side of things. Just for a feel type of thing I consider 1990 the top analog this season. It just has all of the same elements. For various reasons I'm going with. 1970, 1971, 1975, 1984, 1990, 1995, 2007, 2008, 2011, and 2016. Many of these have been on the CPC analogs many times this season. 74-75 and 08-09 look really good for E WA. seem similar, both weak ninas 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 7 hours ago, snow_wizard said: Just looking at my records for November 2008 and 2016 and this certainly has elements of both. For observed weather this was a very good match to 2008 which was wet and just a bit warmer than this one. 2007 was both dry and cool. I hate to harp on 2007, but I'm just not seeing it. In spite of that I still consider it an analog on the technical side of things. Just for a feel type of thing I consider 1990 the top analog this season. It just has all of the same elements. For various reasons I'm going with. 1970, 1971, 1975, 1984, 1990, 1995, 2007, 2008, 2011, and 2016. Many of these have been on the CPC analogs many times this season. I know Dec 1990 featured a historic cold snap as most of California's all time lows were set then. But I would hate to follow that Winters progression as we had 0 precip and snow until March 1st when Miracle saved the season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I'm not sure I buy this precip type... Something is not right... the 00Z ECMWF did not show any lowland snow for the next 10 days while the 12Z GFS shows tons of lowland snow within just the next 6 days. 2 2 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Just now, TT-SEA said: Something is not right... the 00Z ECMWF did not show any lowland snow for the next 10 days while the 12Z GFS shows tons of lowland snow within just the next 6 days. Just doesn't seem like a cold enough airmass to support that much lowland snow... Not like it will be overrunning a very cold low level airmass... The GFS is showing accumulating snow all the way down the WV with like -3C 850mb temps and no meaningful low level cold in place. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 12 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: 12z GFS shows some lowland snow on Saturday morning. I’m liking this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Everleigh Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Something is not right... the 00Z ECMWF did not show any lowland snow for the next 10 days while the 12Z GFS shows tons of lowland snow within just the next 6 days. I know the GFS isn't the most reliable, and I am sure I am just wishful here, but COULD it end up being correct? I don't know all that goes into the making of the maps, but it's been showing snow for the 6th for a few runs now, hasn't it? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Just doesn't seem like a cold enough airmass to support that much lowland snow... Not like it will be overrunning a very cold low level airmass... The GFS is showing accumulating snow all the way down the WV with like -3C 850mb temps and no meaningful low level cold in place. Flow is offshore, 925mb temps -3, 850mb temps -3/-4 and 34 at the surface, pretty good precip rates. It's realllllllly close. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Everleigh said: I know the GFS isn't the most reliable, and I am sure I am just wishful here, but COULD it end up being correct? I don't know all that goes into the making of the maps, but it's been showing snow for the 6th for a few runs now, hasn't it? Anything is possible... but it seems very unlikely that the ECMWF would completely miss 2 major lowland snowstorms within a week. And even the ECMWF has been way too generous with lowland snow a couple times already this fall. We will see what the 12Z run shows. 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 The 12Z ICON also shows some lowland snow over the next week... this is more than its 00Z run showed. 4 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 0.08” this morning and up to 9.69” on the month. Still getting a bit of rain here despite NW flow. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, SalemDuck said: Flow is offshore, 925mb temps -3, 850mb temps -3/-4 and 34 at the surface, pretty good precip rates. It's realllllllly close. I guess the 12/14/16 event was very marginal and ended up working out very well. Even the day of, I was fairly skeptical that one was going to pan out. Didn't seem to have a very cold airmass in place before hand. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I'm not sure I buy this precip type... I'm doubtful too, but I'd be thrilled for all of you and I'd get a dusting as well. 3 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 I'll take one snow next week please. Oh an encore? My goodness. Maybe this update to king euro is more of a downgrade... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 30, 2021 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 I'm going to issue a blizzard warning for Monday morning for all of western WA. 5 3 1 2 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 I'll take some of your rain. The last three days have been only 0.05 in each 24 hour period starting at 8am. But I live in a semi arid climate so it's really my fault. 1 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I guess the 12/14/16 event was very marginal and ended up working out very well. Even the day of, I was fairly skeptical that one was going to pan out. Didn't seem to have a very cold airmass in place before hand. I only have a picture of my dog for that day. Must have been a non event up here. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: I'm going to issue a blizzard warning for Monday morning for all of western WA. What will you issue for MossMan's location? 1 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SalemDuck Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: I only have a picture of my dog for that day. Must have been a non event up here. It was PDX south basically, mid-Willamette valley was the bullseye I believe. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Kuchera shows totals cut in half….I would still take it! The SPS is due for a snowstorm!!!! 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Just now, SalemDuck said: It was PDX south basically, mid-Willamette valley was the bullseye I believe. Yes, Salem up to about Wilsonville had the best amounts. Snow cut off pretty quickly across the PDX Metro. I believe south of Albany was ZR. Eugene had a significant ZR event that day. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 This run doesn't dig the late week trough as well next week. Seems to be a theme with the runs that show the earlier stuff being better. Overall a really good run so far though. Will at least feel like the season. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Kuchera shows totals cut in half….I would still take it! The SPS is due for a snowstorm!!!! lol it’s only been 289 days since our last major event (February 14th). 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said: What will you issue for MossMan's location? Snow plow day warning. 1 4 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Coastal radar appears to be down this morning. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Hmm. Long range GFS/GEFS and EPS both now hinting at the development of a Scandinavian ridge. Long way to go, but if that verifies (and persists) then I think we at least avoid a worst case outcome (1999/00, etc). First legitimate “good news” development I’ve seen in several weeks. Hopefully it’s real and not a mirage. 4 2 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 Going to be crazy to have a December 1924, January 1950, February 1929, March 1951 redux. 2 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 30, 2021 Report Share Posted November 30, 2021 20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I guess the 12/14/16 event was very marginal and ended up working out very well. Even the day of, I was fairly skeptical that one was going to pan out. Didn't seem to have a very cold airmass in place before hand. That was a pretty ideal setup actually, at least from Salem-north. Strong low landfalling around Reedsport with a very cold airmass (850s ended up getting to -10c at SLE) advecting in from the NE. Almost a picture perfect setup. Had a little too much downslope component to the north of the low, otherwise it would have been amazing, but still wound up with a respectable 3" of 28-30F powder here going into a cold spell. 1/10/2017 totally overshadowed it here but that was still a great event. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.