PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Snownerd3000]

7 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

 

 

Just a little different... just a little bit.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS 850s (Past 4 runs) Definitely trending colder with the weekend trough.

[Slushy Inch]

This will be a big fail for the Euro if GFS is right.

[Gradient Keeper]

In my opinion we're heading into a colder N-NW flow with progressively lower snow levels and then the ridge/block sets up more favorably shoving arctic air further south with perhaps a blast mid-December.

[Phishy Wx]

7 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

This will be a big fail for the Euro if GFS is right.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Impressive system the middle of next week. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Crazy how much more exciting these GFS runs are than the EURO.

[Phil]

New CPC forecast for December.

Looks like an Andrew pattern.

 

[Snownerd3000]

Just now, Phil said:

New CPC forecast for December.

Looks like an Andrew pattern.

 

Who ordered just the tip?

[Phil]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Crazy how much more exciting these GFS runs are than the EURO.

It’s the GFS. That’s why.  

[Snownerd3000]

 

 

Liking the changes on the 18 vs 12 for the 9th.

[GHweatherChris]

Just now, Snownerd3000 said:

Who ordered just the tip?

Your....

Nevermind, that ones too easy 

[Omegaraptor]

Just now, Phil said:

It’s the GFS. That’s why.  

Oh I'm already prepared for our return to warm shietty reality starting at 10 PM tonight.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Who ordered just the tip?

Jim.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's why we love the GFS and hate the EURO.

[Snownerd3000]

18z brings the cold sooner.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at a week from Friday, looks like some Fraser Outflow up north. Chilly in the Willamette Valley with some sub-40 highs. 

[MWG]

I wouldn't mind another December 2013 not a lot of snow but was fun for a couple of days. 

[paulb/eugene]

The fourth trough looks mighty dynamic trucking through Alaska toward PacNW on 18z on day 12-13

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NWS going with a high of 50-55 for the Willamette Valley on Monday. At clear odds with the 18z GFS. 

[Snownerd3000]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

NWS going with a high of 50-55 for the Willamette Valley on Monday. At clear odds with the 18z GFS. 

They'll change it.  Still a week away.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GEFS Day 6 (Past 4 runs) I love these trend with the Aleutian ridge, Kona low, and offshore ridge.

[Gradient Keeper]

If the trend with the GFS continues we'll end up with a ridge merger bit more positive tilt until the Aleutian ridge continues to move further east. Good things ahead! EURO soon to jump on board! C'MON! Ya gotta believe!

00z ECMWF in 6 hours 47 minutes

[Snownerd3000]

Man look at the cold reload in Alaska.

 

[Esquimalt]

Wow huge improvement on the Gefs

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I feel like we're going into a pattern that will have plenty of chances for lowland snow in many different ways.  Probably will be some cold onshore type of snow showers with a convergence zone. Also should have a good chance for a couple more wide-spread overrunning events with some Fraser outflow. The 18z has a bunch of lowland snow .

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I feel like we're going into a pattern that will have plenty of chances for lowland snow in many different ways.  Probably will be some cold onshore type of snow showers with a convergence zone. Also should have a good chance for a couple more wide-spread overrunning events with some Fraser outflow. The 18z has a bunch of lowland snow .

 

[SnowWillarrive]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I feel like we're going into a pattern that will have plenty of chances for lowland snow in many different ways.  Probably will be some cold onshore type of snow showers with a convergence zone. Also should have a good chance for a couple more wide-spread overrunning events with some Fraser outflow. The 18z has a bunch of lowland snow .

Puget Sound region headed for a magical period to rival December 2008.

[TacomaWaWx]

DEvAstaTINg TrEnDZ

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No complaints about the 18z...

[TacomaWaWx]

There’s been a bit of rain here today but not alot. 0.11” so far today and 9.72” this month. We need 0.18” to be the wettest S/O/N before midnight not sure if we will get there or not. 

[TacomaWaWx]

21 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I feel like we're going into a pattern that will have plenty of chances for lowland snow in many different ways.  Probably will be some cold onshore type of snow showers with a convergence zone. Also should have a good chance for a couple more wide-spread overrunning events with some Fraser outflow. The 18z has a bunch of lowland snow .

Hopefully the TRENDZ continue in our favor. Haven’t had anything too remarkable in December for a long time now. 

[Deweydog]

Eight hours twenty seven minutes……

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

DEvAstaTINg TrEnDZ

Encouraging Trendz

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Eight hours twenty seven minutes……

#december2remember

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

#december2remember

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

lol we will see I’m still having PTSD from January 2020. Long way to go. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

43 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

18z GEFS Day 6 (Past 4 runs) I love these trend with the Aleutian ridge, Kona low, and offshore ridge.

Sometimes I look at the 250mb winds, which is pretty much the Jetstream.