PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[FroYoBro]

PDX was a little too far north for the heaviest rain overnight and now will be a little too far south over the next 24 hours. 
 

A little bummed because I actually enjoy extreme rain and ARs. 

[Skagit Weather]

27 minutes ago, Phil said:

Blizzard warning criteria are difficult to meet let alone maintain for the required duration of time.

Sustained at/above 35mph and/or visibility 1/4mi or less for at least three consecutive hours. Haven’t seen that here since January 2016. 

I acknowledge that, but that's a pretty common occurrence in the upper Cascades. I've witnessed those conditions while skiing half a dozen times in the last ten years. Basically every time the ski areas are forced to shut down it's worse than that. And it happens at the passes not infrequently as well. But like I said, probably not enough people living up there to justify a warning of that type.

[Slushy Inch]

New euro keeps cool/cold pattern intact through Nov 21st!

[bainbridgekid]

33 minutes ago, Phil said:

Blizzard warning criteria are difficult to meet let alone maintain for the required duration of time.

Sustained at/above 35mph and/or visibility 1/4mi or less for at least three consecutive hours. Haven’t seen that here since January 2016. 

That happens in the mountains here all the time. They don’t seem to issue a blizzard warning for mountain locations based on that criteria though.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

New euro keeps cool/cold pattern intact through Nov 21st!

It sure would be nice to shut down the Pacific.    

[Skagit Weather]

12z Euro drops 6" of rain on Bellingham during the next 5 days. Looks like the models are still trying to figure out how wet and exactly where that second atmospheric river early next week will end up.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Fairbanks finally hit 0 on the 9th, and -10 yesterday, which was also their first below average day of the month. They finally have snow cover too... Been a crazy warm fall up there. ANALOG?!

[TacomaWaWx]

0.27” so far today and the main rain hasn’t started yet. Gonna be interesting to see how much rain we get this afternoon might be close to a half inch before the bulk of the precip is here. 

[BLI snowman]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Fairbanks finally hit 0 on the 9th, and -10 yesterday, which was also their first below average day of the month. They finally have snow cover too... Been a crazy warm fall up there. ANALOG?!

1861/1865/1867/1887/1889/1892/1898/1915/1922/1929/1936/1948/1949/1955/1956/1968/1978/1985/1992/2008/ 2016

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

1861/1865/1867/1887/1889/1892/1898/1915/1922/1929/1936/1948/1949/1955/1956/1968/1978/1985/1992/2008/2016

Looks like a good list except for 85 since we won't be getting a repeat of that, at least down this way.

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like a good list except for 85 since we won't be getting a repeat of that, at least down this way.

Most of the South Valley's action that winter was at the beginning of December, so still got a few weeks to go. Time will tell!

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like a good list except for 85 since we won't be getting a repeat of that, at least down this way.

Lol I’m not sure if that was a serious list or not. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol I’m not sure if that was a serious list or not. 

Guessing not. LOL

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like October 2008 and 1992 were very cold at Fairbanks. Most good years for us had below average temps up there in October, November is more of a wildcard. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another nice slug of rain coming through the Central Valley. 

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I’ve never seen that in my life.

I believe my area was until a blizzard warning overnight between 12/28 and 12/29 of 1996. The only time I can think of that my area was under the Blizzard warning. 

[RentonHill]

34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It sure would be nice to shut down the Pacific.    

Last 3 runs of EPS

[TT-SEA]

25 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?gage=squw1&wfo=sew

 

 

The current predicted peak discharge at Snoqualmie Falls is approximately 52,000 cubic feet per second. If that comes to fruition, it would be the 7th greatest peak discharge in recorded history and the largest since January 2009. 

https://snoqualmiewx.blogspot.com/p/flood-crests.html

I find it hard to believe this will worse than 2006.     That was a crazy AR event with a temp close to 70 and I believe much more rain than what is predicted to fall in the next 36 hours.   There is also very little snowpack above to melt and add to the flow.    Seems odd that this event is projected to be so large.    We just had similar rainfall totals a couple weeks ago with almost no issues.

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I find it hard to believe this will worse than 2006.     That was a crazy AR event with a temp close to 70 and I believe much more rain than what is predicted to fall in the next 36 hours.   There is also very little snowpack above to melt and add to the flow.    Seems odd that this event is projected to be so large.    We just had similar rainfall totals a couple weeks ago with almost no issues.

Must be due to the soil saturation already present. Not a ton of snow yet in the mountains but it’ll contribute too. 

[Kayla]

5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Last 3 runs of EPS

One word... Retrogression!

[SouthHillFrosty]

Looking Wet

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Kayla said:

One word... Retrogression!

Let's get some backdoor action and a good CCG going! Isothermal column at some point.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Must be due to the soil saturation already present. Not a ton of snow yet in the mountains but it’ll contribute too. 

Not sure... but water runs off the hills pretty quickly out here so its hard to imagine the soil saturation being much different than normal.     The river is quite low right now and the seasonal streams along our road are dry at this point after being active for a few days in late October.

[Kayla]

The 12z EPS mean and control run are beginning to look more promising as we begin Thanksgiving week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I find it hard to believe this will worse than 2006.     That was a crazy AR event with a temp close to 70 and I believe much more rain than what is predicted to fall in the next 36 hours.   There is also very little snowpack above to melt and add to the flow.    Seems odd that this event is projected to be so large.    We just had similar rainfall totals a couple weeks ago with almost no issues.

Wasn’t 2006 very dry pretty much up until that event? 

[Skagit Weather]

36 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?gage=squw1&wfo=sew

 

 

The current predicted peak discharge at Snoqualmie Falls is approximately 52,000 cubic feet per second. If that comes to fruition, it would be the 7th greatest peak discharge in recorded history and the largest since January 2009. 

https://snoqualmiewx.blogspot.com/p/flood-crests.html

I was there on October 22, 2019 and it was pretty impressive to see the water roaring over the cliff. Unfortunately the lower platform was flooded so this was the best photo I could get from the upper one.

[TT-SEA]

Here is a zoomed in view of total rain through Saturday morning per the 12Z ECMWF... the rain from this event ends late tomorrow afternoon.

I am just skeptical that 3 or 4 inches of rain here would cause such massive flooding.    

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I find it hard to believe this will worse than 2006.     That was a crazy AR event with a temp close to 70 and I believe much more rain than what is predicted to fall in the next 36 hours.   There is also very little snowpack above to melt and add to the flow.    Seems odd that this event is projected to be so large.    We just had similar rainfall totals a couple weeks ago with almost no issues.

November 5-7, 2006 is probably the gold standard for AR firehoses in the region. The flash flooding in Mt. Rainier wiped out half the roads in the park and the precip rates in the upslope areas were straight up tropical. OR broke their 24 hour precip record and WA and ID both nearly did as well.

I do think there were typhoon remnants in that funneled to us under a historically deep cold airmass in Alaska, which created a massive baroclinic zone that spanned the entire region.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I was there on October 22, 2019 and it was pretty impressive to see the water roaring over the cliff. Unfortunately the lower platform was flooded so this was the best photo I could get from the upper one.

Gotta get me a cherry pie and a damnn fine cup of coffee!

[GHweatherChris]

It would be hilarious if the AR told to Tim to "hold my beer" because of all the shhit Tim is talking about it!!

[TT-SEA]

Just now, GHweatherChris said:

It would be hilarious if the AR told to Tim to "hold my beer" because of all the shhit Tim is talking about it!!

I was just thinking the same thing... the flooding will likely be even worse now because I raised doubts.  

 

[TacomaWaWx]

lol I went back and read through the thread during December 19th-20th 2019 AR. That was during the peak of #conferencecallgate and a lot of the posts were people being p*ssed at josh. 

 Was definitely one of the best AR events I can remember…we had like 2” of rain in 8 hours roughly and 4” in 24 hours…there was some tidal overflow with some really high tides and lots of rivers draining big time. Commencement bay was mud brown with lots of debris. 

[Skagit Weather]

12 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

November 5-7, 2006 is probably the gold standard for AR firehoses in the region. The flash flooding in Mt. Rainier wiped out half the roads in the park and the precip rates in the upslope areas were straight up tropical. OR broke their 24 hour precip record and WA and ID both nearly did as well.

I do think there were typhoon remnants in that funneled to us under a historically deep cold airmass in Alaska, which created a massive baroclinic zone that spanned the entire region.

I just skimmed the paper written about it. Looks like one of the highest atmospheric water contents ever recorded around here and many places in the central cascades hit 80-100% of their expected max 24 hour rainfall in a hundred year period.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/136/11/2008mwr2550.1.xml#i1520-0493-136-11-4398-f07

[RentonHill]

17 minutes ago, Kayla said:

The 12z EPS mean and control run are beginning to look more promising as we begin Thanksgiving week.

Heres the second half of the mean run

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

I just skimmed the paper written about it. Looks like one of the highest atmospheric water contents ever recorded around here and many places in the central cascades hit 80-100% of their expected max 24 hour rainfall in a hundred year period.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/136/11/2008mwr2550.1.xml#i1520-0493-136-11-4398-f07

Apparently this AR event from now through tomorrow afternoon is going to be worse here.   Interesting. 

[snow drift]

I would love to see some high latitude blocking. We've had one below average high all month. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Silver Falls recorded a single day record 6.69" of rain during that November 2006 event. I was messing around with that PRISM reanalysis site once and it said November 2006 was the wettest month since 1892 for my location, narrowly beating out January 1953. It estimated something insane like 27" of rain here that month. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said:

I acknowledge that, but that's a pretty common occurrence in the upper Cascades. I've witnessed those conditions while skiing half a dozen times in the last ten years. Basically every time the ski areas are forced to shut down it's worse than that. And it happens at the passes not infrequently as well. But like I said, probably not enough people living up there to justify a warning of that type.

Yeah that’s part of it as well. Lots of upsloping blizzards above 3000ft in the apps as well but relatively few people to warn and doing so would be redundant.

[TacomaWaWx]

36 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wasn’t 2006 very dry pretty much up until that event? 

2006 here was a pretty dry fall up until November started. Just 0.77” in September and 1.40” in October both less than 50% of average. Then we got 15.71” of rain in November. 

[TacomaWaWx]

0.39” here this morning now…3.44” this month. Looks like a little lull in the activity before the steady stuff arrives in 30 minutes or so…radars looking pretty healthy to the west. 50 degrees and dead calm the tropical feeling air has not arrived just yet.