PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[MossMan]

17 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

November 5-7, 2006 is probably the gold standard for AR firehoses in the region. The flash flooding in Mt. Rainier wiped out half the roads in the park and the precip rates in the upslope areas were straight up tropical. OR broke their 24 hour precip record and WA and ID both nearly did as well.

I do think there were typhoon remnants in that funneled to us under a historically deep cold airmass in Alaska, which created a massive baroclinic zone that spanned the entire region.

Yeah that one really sticks out in my mind as well. Stanwood saw quite the healthy flood event that closed schools for several days. 

[weatherfan2012]

13 hours ago, Phil said:

It was traumatizing actually. Didn’t get any frozen precip out of it. Not even sleet.

Typical La Niña affair..cold/dry —-> warmup/rain —> cold dry. 

which is why I perfer weak to moderate El ninos out of all the ensos phases it seems the pattern more often then not is money in weak to moderate Nino winters.La ninas are so so over all in our regions.I think the problem the last few years Phil has not been enso but bad phases in other factors like the qbo we been having wrong phases as of late.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

53 minutes ago, snow drift said:

I would love to see some high latitude blocking. We've had one below average high all month. 

Did you get snow this morning?

[BLI snowman]

Up to 65/59 at Salem with the south wind punching through there now. Lots of juice in the air.

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said:

I was there on October 22, 2019 and it was pretty impressive to see the water roaring over the cliff. Unfortunately the lower platform was flooded so this was the best photo I could get from the upper one.

I bet the sound from that roaring water was deafening! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

51 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah that’s part of it as well. Lots of upsloping blizzards above 3000ft in the apps as well but relatively few people to warn and doing so would be redundant.

I was in a blizzard snowmobiling about 15 years ago with my mom and dad. We would park and ride from a area called greenwater on the way to Crystal mountain ski resort and ride up over fs road 70 down to a restaurant on the east side of cascades.  Peak elevation was 5k feet. I knew there was weather coming  but we went riding anyway. We had calm cloudy weather on trip over but coming back we had white out conditions,  50 mile per hr wind and temps around 20 degrees.  If I hadn't known the road really good we would have been doomed. At the crest of the pass its about 20 miles to the truck and trailer. At the top a 10ft tall snow drift developed by the time we were coming back from dinner. It was me and my wife and my mom and dad all on our own machines.  If it had just been my mom and dad they wouldn't of been able to navigate the road. When I say visibility was zero it really was. That moment was a learning experience for sure.

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like the bulk of the rain is moving in here now. Up to 0.46” on the day. 

[ShawniganLake]

I think the temp sensor on my Davis station crapped out yesterday. Says we hit 70C.  Didn’t feel that warm to me. 
 

and…….

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Here it the most recent ECMWF weeklies, each image is a 5 day running average

 

[Blizzard777]

.53 so far and the highest rain rate so far was .86

Glad I got both my pumps and basin under the house cleaned up last month!  Pump will be going off every minute soon! 
 

53*

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 68F now and comfortable in a t shirt and shorts. Not much fun.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Here it the most recent ECMWF weeklies, each image is a 5 day running average

 

Could be worse. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2.44" now since midnight. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z backing off on Precip further north. Extreme NW Oregon/SW WA look to be the main bullseye. Went from about 0.75" here tomorrow to almost 2". 

[Deweydog]

It’s very dark outside.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Up to 68F now and comfortable in a t shirt and shorts. Not much fun.

It's 91 here. However, 5:30 will be pitch black.

[TacomaWaWx]

We’re up to 0.60” now. 

[T-Town]

More banded than firehose so far. Looks like some heavy stuff coming though. 

[TheNewCulverJosh]

If we don't get a snowstorm this year the OldCulverJosh may come back. 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

More banded than firehose so far. Looks like some heavy stuff coming though. 

Yeah maybe it’ll get more steady later on rather than moderate to heavy waves on and off. The next batch looks heavier than the previous one. 

[FroYoBro]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z backing off on Precip further north. Extreme NW Oregon/SW WA look to be the main bullseye. Went from about 0.75" here tomorrow to almost 2". 

Nice. Raining hard again here. Maybe Portland will end up doing better than I first expected. 

[MossMan]

Up to .45” on the day. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

26 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Nice. Raining hard again here. Maybe Portland will end up doing better than I first expected. 

Yeah PDX should do well with this next round. Could be some massive #s in the Clark county foothills. 

[snow drift]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Did you get snow this morning?

I didn't see any flakes mixing in. Felts Field reported rain. KGEG reported light snow. KGEG has more elevation.

[GHweatherChris]

13 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Some heavy looking precip coming in off the coast.

Agree with others - definitely not your typical AR look. More banded instead of a long, continuous firehose. 

It's very moist here now.

And, I don't think this is the AR, that's coming after this frontal lobe moves through, I think. 

[T-Town]

 

[Timmy Supercell]

High of 50 in Salt Lake City! The start of the drive had some sunbreaks, turning overcast within an hour of SLC. 

Had to get Holiday Inn Express again, parts of downtown are not the best here. Was going to stop off at 2 other hotels and turned right around because of tents/backpacks sighted. Just to be on the safe side! All our belongings are on 4 wheels.

[TheNewCulverJosh]

2 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

High of 50 in Salt Lake City! The start of the drive had some sunbreaks, turning overcast within an hour of SLC. 

Had to get Holiday Inn Express again, parts of downtown are not the best here. Was going to stop off at 2 other hotels and turned right around because of tents/backpacks sighted. Just to be on the safe side! All our belongings are on 4 wheels.

That Salt Lake weather is pretty lame in town.  It is kind of like here where the action stays blocked up in the mountains.  Although I bet the Salt Lake effect snow is something to marvel at.  Would love to experience that once.

[Skagit Weather]

Currently a pretty aggressive flood forecast for the Skagit River. We hit almost 33ft on Friday night and more than 34 ft next week. I'm doubtful either of them will be that high as that would put both of them in the top 15 crests all time and 34 ft would only be a little less than the insane 2003 flooding, but if that second atmospheric river stays in the north up here I guess I could see it happening.

Historic Crests
(1) 37.37 ft on 11/25/1990
(2) 37.34 ft on 11/30/1995
(3) 37.00 ft on 11/11/1906
(4) 36.85 ft on 02/11/1951
(5) 36.61 ft on 11/11/1990
(6) 36.19 ft on 10/21/2003
(7) 35.66 ft on 12/04/1975
(8) 34.49 ft on 11/04/1955
(9) 34.21 ft on 11/28/1949
(10) 34.16 ft on 12/27/1980
(11) 33.99 ft on 12/19/1979
(12) 33.85 ft on 11/07/2006
(13) 33.15 ft on 11/24/2017 (P)
(14) 32.39 ft on 12/05/1989

[Timmy Supercell]

3 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

I think the temp sensor on my Davis station crapped out yesterday. Says we hit 70C.  Didn’t feel that warm to me. 
 

and…….

 

It felt like getting to the oasis when it rained this year! Did it already get that bad? 

[TacomaWaWx]

0.65” so far now…looks like the next slug of rain is about to push through and it looks heavy. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Temp is slowly climbing up to 54 now. We will see if we can hit 60 either before midnight or tomorrow. 

[Cloud]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Some heavy looking precip coming in off the coast.

Agree with others - definitely not your typical AR look. More banded instead of a long, continuous firehose. 

The fire hose is still to come. 

 

[Skagit Weather]

34 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Predicted Snoqualmie River peak discharge has lowered a bit, but not much: 

 

I've never used this feature before, but here are their "experimental" flow probabilities. The most likely range is between ~20,000 cfs and ~42,000 cfs, much lower than the predicted peak above. Going to have to read up on how these are calculated. 

 

That experimental graph is super interesting. It looks like maybe they're using the 80% percentile (or I guess more accurately the 20% percentile) for their forecast?

[Cloud]

It is pouring outside. Some very moderate/heavy stuff sitting over us right now. With even heavier stuff moving in soon from the west over Bremerton.

[Cloud]

42 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

Predicted Snoqualmie River peak discharge has lowered a bit, but not much: 

 

I've never used this feature before, but here are their "experimental" flow probabilities. The most likely range is between ~20,000 cfs and ~42,000 cfs, much lower than the predicted peak above. Going to have to read up on how these are calculated. 

 

 

Could be first time in over a decade Snoqualmie nears 60ft. And if it does hit 60ft or go over, it'll be first time since 1995/1996.

 

[snow_wizard]

FWIW the ECMWF weeklies have the PNA and EPO both negative around Christmas time.  Not a bad looking run.

[FroYoBro]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

While we get inundated with inches upon inches of rain, Sioux Falls is about to score their first snowfall of the season tonight along with 50 mph winds. 

Ok Tim.

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, Cloud said:

It is pouring outside. Some very moderate/heavy stuff sitting over us right now. With even heavier stuff moving in soon from the west over Bremerton.

It is just plain awful here.

[TacomaWaWx]

Temp is up to 56…heaviest rain has passed through up to 0.90” now.