westMJim Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 Whoops it looks like I posted this in the wrong thread earlier. Oh well if that is the biggest mistake I make in the next week so be it. The overnight was one of those nights when the temperature slowly went up. The low here and officially at GRR of 5 happened around midnight. At this time it is partly cloudy and 17 here. There was trace of snow fall here yesterday and there is 6.5" of snow on the ground. As for next weeks possible system? That remains to be seen there is a lot and I mean a lot of time before we see how this plays out. But I will say we have now been in this cold and dry pattern for about 30 days or so and most patterns only last 30 to 45 days so we are due for a pattern change. It could be warmer/wetter or just warmer or just wetter. Dryer or colder are much less likely. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 18 hours ago, Tony said: I'm not a big fan of the East Coast but you gotta feel a little bad for them with the turn of events from a Major Blizzard to possibly a couple inches. Sounds like late Winter during La Nina. I was graduating high school in 2011 and remember them getting buried in February. Possibly also in 2012. Simultaneously both the west and east were getting nailed, so the cascades might be getting their pack again soon and lasts through April. February 2011/2012 both were above average snow months for the northwest (except valley floor). My best March in Klamath Falls was in 2012. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 I think we got colder than was forecast. Wunderground was saying Ashland might have 12 for a low, KDWU ended up with 6 degrees. That's the 2nd coldest next to the 5 I had less than a week ago. Considering there is almost no snow left on the ground getting close to zero is pretty good. 2 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 12z GEFS have trended west with the LES potential into COOK county...and even parts of Lake... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 13 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z GEFS have trended west with the LES potential into COOK county...and even parts of Lake... Several inches looking very possible into the city/downtown area. Should pile up somewhere if there is a single stationary band that sets up for a few hours Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 16 minutes ago, Tom said: 12z GEFS have trended west with the LES potential into COOK county...and even parts of Lake... looking like this might set up nicely for us in Lake County Indiana....thoughts @Tom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, Tony said: Several inches looking very possible into the city/downtown area. Should pile up somewhere if there is a single stationary band that sets up for a few hours 12z Euro is also saying the same now…shifting the band west… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 21 minutes ago, indianajohn said: looking like this might set up nicely for us in Lake County Indiana....thoughts @Tom Let's see what the new data says but I do see some changes in the placement of the lake plume... 12z Euro... 12z GFS... 15z RAP... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 LOT just expanded watches west into central/southern COOK... Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Chicago IL 1202 PM CST Thu Jan 27 2022 ILZ104-105-280215- /O.EXB.KLOT.WS.A.0003.220128T0600Z-220128T1800Z/ Central Cook-Southern Cook- Including the cities of Chicago, Cicero, Oak Lawn, Oak Park, La Grange, Calumet City, Oak Forest, Lemont, Orland Park, and Park Forest 1202 PM CST Thu Jan 27 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches likely for areas that see lake effect snow. Significant localized snow accumulations of up to 6 inches or more possible. * WHERE...Central Cook and Southern Cook Counties near the lakeshore. * WHEN...From late tonight through Friday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. Dangerous, rapidly changing travel conditions possible with lake effect snow showers. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Lake effect snow is expected to develop tonight and continue into Friday morning. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour along with visibility less than one half mile is possible. It is likely that portions of Chicago away from the lake will likely see little to even no accumulation. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 The type of disinformation crap people see on Facebook. And they’ll fall for it hook line and sinker. Same goes with COVID and pretty much anything else nowadays. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 35 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: The type of disinformation crap people see on Facebook. And they’ll fall for it hook line and sinker. Same goes with COVID and pretty much anything else nowadays. Is this Craig posting?! LMAO! I had a colleague ask me about all this hype about the polar vortex striking our area next week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 ^^^ That's down right disgustingly sad. I know I post maps on here of brutal cold, but most of us understand they will not happen .To post that on social media where many people are trusting the source- is scary. But it happens with social media. But what a joke. 6 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 27, 2022 Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said: ^^^ That's down right disgustingly sad. I know I post maps on here of brutal cold, but most of us understand they will not happen .To post that on social media where many people are trusting the source- is scary. But it happens with social media. But what a joke. Yeah, all you have to do is go look at the comments section of their page and see all the people that are freaking out, etc. Or even better asking how come the NWS isn't saying this as if the NWS is wrong and this random page on FB is correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 The LES set up is looking interesting for COOK. The CAM’s and GRAF model are painting a solid 3-8” for the city and north side. The lake band stalls out over COOK. LOT may cancel the watch for Lake county in Indiana tonight and expand it into N COOK. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Bryan1117 Posted January 27, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just got home from Denver… I got to experience a decent snow storm (and a Avalanche/ Blackhawks game on Monday night) while I was out there, which was amazing. Absolutely loved being downtown during Tuesday’s storm, which dropped around 5 to 8” of snow on the Denver metro… even had a couple hours of 1” plus per hour snow rates. Hoping that we can pull some of these snow events a bit further east next week. 8 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 6 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said: The type of disinformation crap people see on Facebook. And they’ll fall for it hook line and sinker. Same goes with COVID and pretty much anything else nowadays. Lol one of my roommates saw this and asked about it and one of my FB friends yesterday shared it. -35 air temp is next to impossible for this area. -30 is probably pretty close to as cold as it can get at KLNK (like last year) 1 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 hour ago, snowstorm83 said: Lol one of my roommates saw this and asked about it and one of my FB friends yesterday shared it. -35 air temp is next to impossible for this area. -30 is probably pretty close to as cold as it can get at KLNK (like last year) I seriously wish they would get taken down. What do they say when nearly every time they are wrong and only predict "life-threatening, historic, never seen before" events?? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 down to negative 2 after a balmy day in mid teens today! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 14 hours ago, Hawkeye said: The ECMWF just opened up a bunch of their data and made it free to the public. Levi Cowan has added it to his site, so now Tropical Tidbits has 3-hr Euro data, including 06z and 18z runs. There are no precip type or snowfall maps, but a lot of other stuff is there. available on COD as well, which is awesome Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Yeesh 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Alrighty then....this escalated quickly! LOT has issued WSW's for both Lake/Cook counties in NE IL and also included DuPage with a WWA. @Tony @FV-Mike @Jaycee @brianc400 Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Chicago IL 913 PM CST Thu Jan 27 2022 ILZ104-281115- /O.UPG.KLOT.WS.A.0003.220128T0600Z-220128T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KLOT.WS.W.0002.220128T0800Z-220128T1800Z/ Central Cook- Including the cities of Chicago, Cicero, Oak Lawn, Oak Park, and La Grange 913 PM CST Thu Jan 27 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected, with snowfall rates of 2 or more inches per hour possible at times. The highest snow accumulations are likely to end up between 4 and 8 inches. The nature of lake effect snow is such that snow intensity can vary significantly over just a few miles. Locations not directly impacted by the most intense snow band will probably end up with considerably less than 4 inches of snow. * WHERE...Central Cook County. * WHEN...From 2 AM to noon CST Friday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be highly variable, potentially going from just flurries to near white out conditions in heavy snow over just a few mile stretch. Under the intense snow band, travel will likely be extremely difficult, including during the height of Friday morning rush hour. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The intense portion of the lake effect snow band will result in visibilities of a quarter mile or less and rapid accumulation rates, potentially exceeding 2 inches per hour at times. Snowfall rates of this magnitude, particularly in heavy traffic, can be very difficult for plows to keep up with. If travel cannot be postponed, plan for significantly longer travel times in areas impacted by the most intense snowfall. Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Chicago IL 913 PM CST Thu Jan 27 2022 ILZ013-281115- /O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0006.220128T0900Z-220128T1600Z/ DuPage- Including the cities of Naperville, Wheaton, Downers Grove, Lombard, and Carol Stream 913 PM CST Thu Jan 27 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM CST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. The highest snow accumulations are likely to end up between 2 and 5 inches over eastern DuPage County. The nature of lake effect snow is such that snow intensity can vary significantly over just a few miles. Some locations not directly impacted by the snow band will probably end up with an inch or less, particularly over western DuPage County. * WHERE...DuPage County. * WHEN...From 3 AM to 10 AM CST Friday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be highly variable, potentially going from just flurries to reduced visibilities with accumulating snow over just a few mile stretch. Plan on snow covered roads impacted Friday morning rush hour. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Light snow has begun...let the games begin....boy, this could be one hellova LES set up. I haven't seen LOT wording like this for a Lake Effect set up in years. Quote Regarding the synoptic and thermodynamic environment for lake effect snow (LES), no changes from thinking of the previous shift. Very favorable environment for a dominant, intense single lake effect snow band to develop and move ashore into northeast IL overnight into Friday morning. Forecast soundings show convective layer encompassing the entire dendritic growth zone (DGZ) and given the strong instability and expected land breeze convergence band, should see strong ascent through the DGZ. Set-up appears favorable for 2"+ per hour snowfall rates during the most intense portion of the LES band (09z-16z). Double Digits??? Sign me up! Quote The westward shift in the guidance actually increases confidence that there could be a longer residence time for some areas. Confidence is increasing that max snowfall totals will end up at least in the 6-8" range and not out of the realm of possibility that there could be isolated double digit totals. Gosh, if the CAM's are right, this lake plume could literally wobble back and forth for 10+ hour into NE IL...not gonna lie, I'm a bit excited and thrilled for this last minute shift west. What a surprise this would be for a lot of us here in NE IL. This band could really expand out west if it develops into a large lake plume. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Everything is lining up...convergence is setting up...lake band is forming way up at the top of LM... https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-89.13,43.69,6518/loc=-86.549,42.843 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Puking snow right now in the downtown area.... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 No clue what the record is and on phone, but likely not close but with the -1F today at DSM marks the 11th day this month the temp has fallen to 0F or below. Not a record but well above avg . 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 2-2.5”/hr snowfall rates in this band…just crazy….it appears this band is going to stay pretty stationary into N Cook and parts of Lake county. Man, what a difference in forecast just 12-24 hours ago. Such a perfect set up to get prime time LES I’ll go out and measure but it looks like less than an inch. I’m just west of this band. Hoping for a shift west soon. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just as a type, the intensity has picked up as I just measured 0.8" on my deck. Nice fatties flying as we speak. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 First off I am still on the fence for next weeks systems. While at this time it looks like there will be some rain and some snow it is still too early to say just how much. I just hope we can leave freezing rain out of the picture. At this time this does not look to be a windy system so that is good news. There was just over a half inch of new snow here yesterday and officially at GRR that now brings the monthly total to 25.5" for meteorological winter Grand Rapids is now up to 35.6" and for the season GRR is now up to 45.3" There is now 6.5" of snow on the ground here. The overnight low here at my house was +5 but as has happened several time this winter it is now up to 13 with cloudy skies. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 17 minutes ago, Tom said: 2-2.5”/hr snowfall rates in this band…just crazy….it appears this band is going to stay pretty stationary into N Cook and parts of Lake count. Welcome to the world of lake effect. enjoy! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 It's going to be a great weekend to get outside in KC ahead of next weeks storm. Temps look to be in the 40s for the Chiefs game Sunday as we go for 3rd straight Super bowl appearance. I'll never forget last weeks game and what Andy Reid told Mahomes with 13 seconds left in the game. "When things look grim, be the Grim Reaper." 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 It's just light flakes out there. "Unknown" (lol)... Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Getting some moderate lake effect snow now from Port Huron. Looks like a half inch. Sweet! Temps are in the low teens. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Up to 1.8" and adding up quickly...I like how the radar has filled up...it could snow like this all day long! No complaints. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Crazy scene out there. lake effect reaching very far west. Huge flakes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 Tom must be creaming himself right now. This band means business! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 IMG_1526.MOV IMG_1529.MOV Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 I took those videos above off my iPhone so it won’t play for some of you..:absolutely gorgeous out there. Heaviest snow I’ve seen in a number of years. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 28, 2022 Report Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Clinton said: It's going to be a great weekend to get outside in KC ahead of next weeks storm. Temps look to be in the 40s for the Chiefs game Sunday as we go for 3rd straight Super bowl appearance. I'll never forget last weeks game and what Andy Reid told Mahomes with 13 seconds left in the game. "When things look grim, be the Grim Reaper." I'm a die hard bills fan so I had to respond with the puke emoji........it still hurts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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