seattleweatherguy Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 12Z GFS for Thansgiving... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_228_500_vort_ht.gifI am no expert but that does not loo like a snow pattern Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 I am no expert but that does not loo like a snow pattern No... but it is definitely nice weather. There is still a strong signal for a blocking period in all the models which is good. Details will become more clear in the next couple days. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Well I guess the Canadian isn't bad. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Dead calm here... that will change. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Just about to one foot of rain here this month... already above normal for the entire month of November. A drier pattern is likely ahead regardless of the details. WRF shows gusty, dry east winds and sunshine here on Friday. I love that kind of weather. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Canadian shows 850mb temps getting down -12º in the Seattle area and -10º in the Portland area. Pretty impressive for late November. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Canadian shows 850mb temps getting down -12º in the Seattle area and -10º in the Portland area. Pretty impressive for late November. Go Canadian! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 "PDX-BLI Gradient up to +17.8 - very strong!" Twitter:scott from komo says. But what does this mean in terms of wind speeds? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Dead calm here... that will change.Stormy here this morning. Lots of heavy rain and gusty winds. Better than 1 inch of rain since midnight and we lost our power around 920am. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 light have blinked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 51 mph gust at bremerton airport. Highest gust ive seen there in some time. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Pretty strong signal for a developing cold snap here. 70-90% probability of below average. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 It's Phil vs. the Euro. After this, we'll know who to trust for the rest of the winter. Haha. Just to clarify, I suspect there will be somewhat of a cooldown w/ continental influence during the aforementioned window, at least into northern Washington as the NPAC wave attempts to gain latitude and break into the PV. However, I don't see Arctic air making it out of BC, and suspect the strong, fully-coupled PV aloft will cut off the high in the upper sigmas, causing it to decouple, which favors the development of a cut-off low pressure system beneath the high as the Pacific jet runs into the decoupled wave and splits. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Haha. Just to clarify, I suspect there will be somewhat of a cooldown w/ continental influence during the aforementioned window, at least into northern Washington as the NPAC wave attempts to gain latitude. However, I don't see Arctic air making it out of BC, and suspect the strong, coupled PV aloft will cut off the high in the upper sigmas, causing it to pinch off, which favors the development of a cut-off low pressure system beneath the high as the Pacific jet runs into the decoupled wave and splits. El Nino effect Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Haha. Just to clarify, I suspect there will be somewhat of a cooldown w/ continental influence during the aforementioned window, at least into northern Washington as the NPAC wave attempts to gain latitude and break into the PV. However, I don't see Arctic air making it out of BC, and suspect the strong, fully-coupled PV aloft will cut off the high in the upper sigmas, causing it to decouple, which favors the development of a cut-off low pressure system beneath the high as the Pacific jet runs into the decoupled wave and splits.Do you think it will seep down to the BC border around my area? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 El Nino effectPartially thanks to El Niño-influenced Pacific circulation, but really just typical polar/mid-latitude jet interaction(s). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Do you think it will seep down to the BC border around my area?I have no idea. To predict something like that requires a level of precision that doesn't exist as of now. If the aformentioned upstream wave break (which you see as a large offshore high trying to nudge poleward) gains sufficient amplitude before being decapitated aloft, then I suspect the Arctic front will reach the border. A lot can change from now until then. I'm just making a general prediction based on what I know and have observed in the past. What ultimately results is anyone's guess, given the complicated nature of these interactions. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 GFS 12Z OP doesn't look great for arctic air. Today into tomorrow is the wettest period for the next 16 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 I have no idea. To predict something like that requires a level of precision that doesn't exist as of now. If the aformentioned upstream wave break (which you see as a large offshore high trying to nudge poleward) gains sufficient amplitude before being decapitated aloft, then I suspect it may reach the border.Thanks. I just want snow for Christmas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Some gusts so far: SEA: 40 mphBremerton: 51 mphEverett: 49 mph Breezy but nothing too exciting yet here in Mountlake Terrace. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 12Z Canadian... one week from today. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_180_0000.gif Honestly when is the Canadian ever right?... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Honestly when is the Canadian ever right?... I'm always right. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 I'm always right.LOL!!!!!! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 More rain than wind right now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Thanks. I just want snow for Christmas. At least you guys have a chance at some solid early season activity. I've punted both November and December in my neck of the woods, and will probably end up getting most of my snow in February and March, yet again. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman5678 Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Cold and dry...yay <_ lets see if we can get some precipitation in there after thanksgiving.> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 At least you guys have a chance at some solid early season activity. I've punted both November and December in my neck of the woods, and will probably end up getting most of my snow in February and March, yet again.Yeah, but I haven't had a white Christmas since 2008. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Yeah, but I haven't had a white Christmas since 2008.Well considering we only get white Christmas's maybe once every 15 to 20 years you have a while to wait... Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 12Z ECMWF still shows blocking. Wednesday... http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015111712!!chart.gif And Thanksgiving... http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015111712!!chart.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 12Z ECMWF is warmer than its 00Z run. Still shows blocking but not nearly as interesting. Here is Thanksgiving... http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015111712!!chart.gifOooomega Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Haha. Just to clarify, I suspect there will be somewhat of a cooldown w/ continental influence during the aforementioned window, at least into northern Washington as the NPAC wave attempts to gain latitude and break into the PV. However, I don't see Arctic air making it out of BC, and suspect the strong, fully-coupled PV aloft will cut off the high in the upper sigmas, causing it to decouple, which favors the development of a cut-off low pressure system beneath the high as the Pacific jet runs into the decoupled wave and splits. So raging zonal flow is delayed but not denied. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 In PDO news, October comes in at 1.47. That's 14 straight at 1 or better, extending the record. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 So far winds not inpressive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 In PDO news, October comes in at 1.47. That's 14 straight at 1 or better, extending the record. Wonder if there's any correlation between the PDO and PNW temps? Someone should look into that. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Holy rain batman! Impressive rainfall rate here right now with no wind at all. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Wonder if there's any correlation between the PDO and PNW temps? Someone should look into that.Might get torchy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Holy rain batman! Impressive rainfall rate here right now with no wind at all.We need it man. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 winthrop area got a foot of snow and it looks like it still is snowing. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 winthrop area got a foot of snow and it looks like it still is snowing. Lack of wind and surplus of awful, terrible, life ruining rainfall notwithstanding, we have been in a great pattern for the mountains the last several days overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 17, 2015 Report Share Posted November 17, 2015 Well the wind sure has been underwhelming here in Eastgate/Bellevue. Nothing but slightly breezy conditions with the occasional gust. Hoping it will pick up over the next hour or so before it starts to die down this afternoon.Well the wind sure has been underwhelming here in Eastgate/Bellevue. Nothing but slightly breezy conditions with the occasional gust. Hoping it will pick up over the next hour or so before it starts to die down this afternoon.It's all focused to the north for now. Gusts have been pretty steady in the 55mph range around southern Vancouver island and the Fraser valley. 55000 customers without power at last check. I have lost mine twice today already. Heard reports of barn roofs being damaged and torn off out towards Chilliwack. Here is a notice from BChydro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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