2/16 - 2/18 Plains/GL's Cutter

[Tom]

06z HRRR with a noticeable trend SE up this way...

 

 

KC area and @Clinton look good still...

[Tom]

Yikes, 06z NAM says "Swing and a Miss" for N IL...good luck for KC/N MO into S MI... @jaster220@Niko looking better today then the past couple days...

[Tom]

06z NWS Blend trending better for KC/N MO up into S MI...

 

[Clinton]

EAX snowfall prediction 

Discussion:

Temperatures this morning are about 10 degrees above the normal
high for today`s date, with temperatures primarily in the mid 50s.
Gusty southerly winds continue with gusts as high as 40 mph thanks
to a strong low level jet that developed overnight. A Wind
Advisory remains in effect until noon today, at which point winds
should come down a bit (but still remain breezy through the
afternoon). Water vapor imagery clearly shows the closed 500 mb
low over far southern California as of 4 AM. A trough moving
across Canada and the Upper Midwest will send a cold front into NW
MO by later this morning. This will create a substantial gradient
for high temps today, with highs in the mid 40s near the MO/IA/NE
tri state border behind the cold front with highs as warm as the
mid to upper 60s across the KC metro and points south and east
well into the warm sector. Ascent ahead of the approaching trough will
lead to showers developing by this afternoon with even some
thunderstorms possible by late afternoon/early evening as we get
up to about 500 J/kg of SB CAPE. As the surface low associated
with the trough across the Rockies moves west to east across the
Texas Panhandle later tonight, the cold front across northwestern
MO will get pulled through the region, allowing for cold air to
pour in from northwest to southeast. Surface temperatures should
cool to below freezing by late evening (likely around midnight ish
in KC). However, a warm nose aloft will remain in place, leading
to freezing rain initially and then sleet. Some instability looks
to still be in place during the sleet phase of the event, so
would not be surprised if we have some thundersleet. Ice accretion
and sleet accumulations will lead to slick roadways in the
overnight period. Changeover to all snow will occur from northwest
to southeast through the morning hours of Thursday as thermal
profiles become entirely sub freezing as the surface low makes its
way across NE Oklahoma and then along the MO/AR border. The
period of heaviest snow looks to be between roughly 7 AM and 2 PM
on Thursday. During this time northerly wind gusts up to 35 mph
will be possible, significantly reducing visibilities and making
travel extremely hazardous. Snow should taper off by mid to late
Thursday afternoon. While there remains some discrepancies among
the models, there is better consensus this morning and we are
getting a better idea for where the greatest snowfall totals may
be, which as of now appears to be roughly along an axis from the
southwestern side of the KC metro (Johnson County KS) to the
northeast toward Moberly where 6" to 8" of snow are currently
forecast. To the immediate north and south of this axis, 3" to 6"
are forecast. Less than 3" are expected across northwestern and
far northern MO. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from
midnight tonight to 6 pm Thursday, although an upgrade to a
warning is likely by this afternoon at least for portions of the
current watch area.

 

[Clinton]

3z SREF Mean 

@indianajohn @jaster220 @Niko

[Clinton]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

06z HRRR with a noticeable trend SE up this way...

 

 

KC area and @Clinton look good still...

Just got keep it there another 24 hrs.  Good luck, looks like the modes are all over the place for Chicago.

[Clinton]

6z GFS 

[Niko]

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
330 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

MIZ055-061>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-162115-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WS.A.0002.220217T1500Z-220218T0600Z/
Sanilac-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-
Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Sandusky, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron,
Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
330 AM EST Wed Feb 16 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 3 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of up to
  one tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Michigan.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain changes over to a wintry mix including
  the potential for freezing rain Thursday morning before
  transitioning to all snow Thursday afternoon-evening. Potential
  snow and sleet accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are possible
  particularly for areas along and south of I-69 down to I-94.
  There is the potential for up to a tenth of an inch of ice
  accumulation particularly for areas south of M-59.

[Niko]

41 minutes ago, Clinton said:

EAX snowfall prediction 

Discussion:

Temperatures this morning are about 10 degrees above the normal
high for today`s date, with temperatures primarily in the mid 50s.
Gusty southerly winds continue with gusts as high as 40 mph thanks
to a strong low level jet that developed overnight. A Wind
Advisory remains in effect until noon today, at which point winds
should come down a bit (but still remain breezy through the
afternoon). Water vapor imagery clearly shows the closed 500 mb
low over far southern California as of 4 AM. A trough moving
across Canada and the Upper Midwest will send a cold front into NW
MO by later this morning. This will create a substantial gradient
for high temps today, with highs in the mid 40s near the MO/IA/NE
tri state border behind the cold front with highs as warm as the
mid to upper 60s across the KC metro and points south and east
well into the warm sector. Ascent ahead of the approaching trough will
lead to showers developing by this afternoon with even some
thunderstorms possible by late afternoon/early evening as we get
up to about 500 J/kg of SB CAPE. As the surface low associated
with the trough across the Rockies moves west to east across the
Texas Panhandle later tonight, the cold front across northwestern
MO will get pulled through the region, allowing for cold air to
pour in from northwest to southeast. Surface temperatures should
cool to below freezing by late evening (likely around midnight ish
in KC). However, a warm nose aloft will remain in place, leading
to freezing rain initially and then sleet. Some instability looks
to still be in place during the sleet phase of the event, so
would not be surprised if we have some thundersleet. Ice accretion
and sleet accumulations will lead to slick roadways in the
overnight period. Changeover to all snow will occur from northwest
to southeast through the morning hours of Thursday as thermal
profiles become entirely sub freezing as the surface low makes its
way across NE Oklahoma and then along the MO/AR border. The
period of heaviest snow looks to be between roughly 7 AM and 2 PM
on Thursday. During this time northerly wind gusts up to 35 mph
will be possible, significantly reducing visibilities and making
travel extremely hazardous. Snow should taper off by mid to late
Thursday afternoon. While there remains some discrepancies among
the models, there is better consensus this morning and we are
getting a better idea for where the greatest snowfall totals may
be, which as of now appears to be roughly along an axis from the
southwestern side of the KC metro (Johnson County KS) to the
northeast toward Moberly where 6" to 8" of snow are currently
forecast. To the immediate north and south of this axis, 3" to 6"
are forecast. Less than 3" are expected across northwestern and
far northern MO. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from
midnight tonight to 6 pm Thursday, although an upgrade to a
warning is likely by this afternoon at least for portions of the
current watch area.

 

Good luck amigo! Ya looking good w/ this one.

[Clinton]

6z Euro still south of the GFS but it did come north some.

[Niko]

Accumulations are likely to be upped later today for tomorrows snowstorm (somewhere in the 8-10inch range) as models are now going w/ less ice north of Detroit. Detroit stands a good chance of seeing a 6-8" event.

[Stacsh]

12 minutes ago, Niko said:

Accumulations are likely to be upped later today for tomorrows snowstorm (somewhere in the 8-10inch range) as models are now going w/ less ice north of Detroit. Detroit stands a good chance of seeing a 6-8" event.

I read probably just a high end advisory.  3-6 in a narrow band.  

[Wheezer]

You Chicago and northeastward members should know your fate by 12z tomorrow when nowcasting kicks in at full earnest.   Where the low pressure is located at that time and comparing to each models location forecast , should reveal the more correct path the rest of the event

[Grizzcoat]

20F spread over basically one county in IA--- S POLK to N Lucas.  Forecast temps for noon today-

[Jayhawker85]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

6z GFS 

@Clinton  looks like we will both be happy with this storm with the current track! Let’s hope this sticks and holds strong for the next 24 hours!

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

@Clinton  looks like we will both be happy with this storm with the current track! Let’s hope this sticks and holds strong for the next 24 hours!

I agree it looks good for all of us in the area.  Thunder sleet and thunder snow, sounds like a great storm.

[KCSmokey]

Be so great if this happened...

https://www.kshb.com/weather/weather-blog-snow-forecast-for-thursday

[Clinton]

12Z HRRR

[tStacsh]

Baby snow storm for SMI.  I'd worry about sleet too.  

[OttumwaSnomow]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

6z GFS 

The GFS is crock.. for 20 yrs Ive seen it  get beat up like detroit lions.  For 5 straight  days it had my town in heavy snow.  Im in the snow business.   Its been simple when the nam joins the euro  make my decisions..  500 million  spent on gfs?  Lol donate it to the Detroit  lions 

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

The GFS is crock.. for 20 yrs Ive seen it  get beat up like detroit lions.  For 5 straight  days it had my town in heavy snow.  Im in the snow business.   Its been simple when the nam joins the euro  make my decisions..  500 million  spent on gfs?  Lol donate it to the Detroit  lions 

It struggles in the the 2-5 day range for sure but it's been good (not perfect) in the 5 to 10 day and inside 24 hrs.  I had hoped for better with the upgrade in the mid-range.

[tStacsh]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

It struggles in the the 2-5 day range for sure but it's been good (not perfect) in the 5 to 10 day and inside 24 hrs.  I had hoped for better with the upgrade in the mid-range.

It sniffs out patterns and disturbances long range, but it's completely overdone on the heat ,cold, storms, precip etc.  It's like the if the NAM had a long range.  

[Clinton]

12z NAM great for KC and Detroit

[Jayhawker85]

Just now, Clinton said:

12z NAM great for KC and Detroit

This is pushing too much to the south and it’s making me nervous!! Hopefully the GFS stays course this morning 

[gimmesnow]

Can't wait to see what this sad map looks like after this storm and southern Illinois gets snow and north of it gets rain. This pattern in jan and feb is absolute garbage please make it stop. If my hill doesn't blow any snow after this it's going to take a week or two off my entire season. Just what you want to see for a mid feb storm, wtf.

[tStacsh]

3 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

Can't wait to see what this sad map looks like after this storm and southern Illinois gets snow and north of it gets rain. This pattern in jan and feb is absolute garbage please make it stop. If my hill doesn't blow any snow after this it's going to take a week or two off my entire season. Just what you want to see for a mid feb storm, wtf.

I'm going to lose a lot of my snowpack today.  Won't get much if any with this storm.  So it's just going to be a very narrow strip across from Missouri to SMI.  

[winterfreak]

I think 1-4/2-4 is a good bet for KC. We’ve seen this setup a million times. Hope I’m wrong.

[CentralNebWeather]

4 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

I think 1-4/2-4 is a good bet for KC. We’ve seen this setup a million times. Hope I’m wrong.

Unfortunately, whatever you get won't stick around too long.  I looked at your extended and there are 50's to low 60's later this weekend.  My brother lives in Shawnee so I keep up with KC weather.

[CentralNebWeather]

I see it is 59 Degrees in Shawnee KS as of 9 AM.  I'm at 27 here with a wind chill of 12.  Obviously the front has come through here dry again.  The common theme this winter.

[mlgamer]

10 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

I think 1-4/2-4 is a good bet for KC. We’ve seen this setup a million times. Hope I’m wrong.

My exact sentiments. This is exactly what will happen in Topeka and likely KC as well. Never fails.

[Hawkeye]

12z GFS

[Grizzcoat]

^^ that's some odd banding or lack of it near and SW of Chicago.
 

[Clinton]

12z GFS south a hair but pretty steady from 6z.

[Jayhawker85]

9 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z GFS south a hair but pretty steady from 6z.

It’s about the same placement but the totals have come down. Let’s see what the Euro and Icon are showing 

[Clinton]

12z GEFS and EPS are in agreement on the track for the KC area, GEFS is wetter.

[winterfreak]

GEFS drifting south with the precip for 3 straight runs. Far cry from yesterday.

[indianajohn]

well looking like this will turn out to be just a an average snow event for our parts... I don't see this puking out 3" per hour rates like was being forecasted on previous runs.. I guess thats why Blizzards with 12,15,20" of snow in 24 hours is a rarity... Everything has to align pretty much perfectly for those events.. Can the models change, of course but 24 hours out the likely hood of it happening is getting slim..

[mlgamer]

12z CMC is coming in wetter. Doubled my QPF from .30 to .60 which is the most it's shown for me.

[tStacsh]

10 minutes ago, indianajohn said:

well looking like this will turn out to be just a an average snow event for our parts... I don't see this puking out 3" per hour rates like was being forecasted on previous runs.. I guess thats why Blizzards with 12,15,20" of snow in 24 hours is a rarity... Everything has to align pretty much perfectly for those events.. Can the models change, of course but 24 hours out the likely hood of it happening is getting slim..

This is just a decent wave along a front with moisture.  It's not some wound up bomb.  And it's moving fairly quick.  Those never produce the totals the models show.   outside of a narrow 30-50 strip, most people will be disappointed in this event.   Those that get it will be happy though.  

 

Add in the warm ground and rain ahead of it, might limit accumulations as well. 

[Clinton]

12z CMC

15z RAP is north and a good hit for Tom