February 2018 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

Never got the shots I wanted after shoveling out Sunday cuz I got too busy, but I did snag a few on my way home yesterday. With the blue skies it was a stellar mid-winter scene with the deep blanket. Truly love my four seasons Mitten, and the peak of each season gets two thumbs up every time it happens! 

 

[Tom]

Never got the shots I wanted after shoveling out Sunday cuz I got too busy, but I did snag a few on my way home yesterday. With the blue skies it was a stellar mid-winter scene with the deep blanket. Truly love my four seasons Mitten, and the peak of each season gets two thumbs up every time it happens! 

 

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The beauty of Winter amigo!  Yesterday, I was on the road out in the far NW burbs where there are far more evergreen and pine trees draped with snow and a deep snow cover.  I soaked it all in as much as possible knowing it will likely vanish by next week.  Gotta take in the beauty when you can and appreciate what you got.  That's the motto I live by every day.  Hope we can finish off the season strong and be able to put this winter season to rest sometime towards the end of March.

[westMJim]

Wikipedia says their annual average is 38.4"; so I guess you could say they are having a good year...a millionaire in a sea of billionaires.

 

Climatologically, they must be close to a zero lake effect station.

 

Wikipedia says their annual average is 38.4"; so I guess you could say they are having a good year...a millionaire in a sea of billionaires.

 

Climatologically, they must be close to a zero lake effect station.

The only time that part of the state gets any lake effect/enhanced snow is with a NE wind with a NE wind they do really well. The only part of Michigan that on average gets less annual snow fall is the far SE part of the state.  As for the seasonal average that 38.4” would be on the low side not sure where  Wikipedia got that figure it should be closer to the mid 40” range at MBS the range since 1949 is between 18.5” in 1977 to 87.2.” in 1967 but that is with several years missing and in some winters, there are some months missing information.

Here is a list of the biggest snowstorms in Saginaw since 1912

 

Saginaw's Heaviest Snow Storms

Rank

Date

Amount

1

January 26-27, 1967

23.8

2

January 26-27, 1978

22.5

3

March 17,1973

21.3

4

February 24-25, 1965

17.9

5

December 19-20, 1929

16.9

6

January 31-February 1,1914

16.9

7

January 13-14,1979

16.1

8

April 2-3,1975

14.4

9

February 25,1935

13.5

10

March 24-25,1947

13.3

11

January 2-3, 1999

13.2

12

November 6-7,1951

12.7

13

February 12, 1985

12.6

14

February 6,2008

12.0

15

February 20,2005

12.0

16

March 4th,1985

12.0

17

December 27-28, 1968

12.0

18

November 29-30,1940

11.9

19

December 20,1971

11.5

20

February 1-2, 2011

11.5

21

January 9-10,1997

11.3

22

November 2-3,1966

11.3

23

November 27-28,1995

11.1

24

March 23,1968

11.0

25

April 5-6, 1952

10.9

[Tabitha]

As for the seasonal average that 38.4” would be on the low side not sure where  Wikipedia got that figure it should be closer to the mid 40” range at MBS the range since 1949 is between 18.5” in 1977 to 87.2.”

 

To have a 38" mean annual snowfall in that part of the universe is pretty close to impossible; lest you surround the town with 4000' mountains on All Sides.

 

Wikipedia is most assuredly not the best repository for climatic data...and I sort of violated one of my own research rules by citing them...but I was in a bit of a hurry...

 

But then again rules are made to be broken..at least mine are..by me.

 

[Snowshoe]

Well this would certainly follow a familiar path this winter. Another miss to the north or will it fall apart all together?

 

Would this put you AN snowfall for the season???

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018021412/138/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tabitha]

The only part of Michigan that on average gets less annual snow fall is the far SE part of the state. 

 

 

W/o researching each and every cooperative and First Order Station; I'm pretty sure Detroit has the lowest average annual snow average in the state; or is very near the bottom of the list.

 

Sort of akin to being the warmest town in Siberia!

[Hawkeye]

Early next week, the euro continues to show a fair amount of icing behind the strong front.  It has Cedar Rapids at 60 degrees early afternoon Monday, then freezing rain late evening.  The GFS has been more progressive with the front.

[Minny_Weather]

Awesome, this storm is 2016/2017-ing us.

[St Paul Storm]

12z Euro also showing the major thermal gradient next week. 2m temps of 14F here and 61F in the south burbs of chitown late Tuesday. Not hard to believe a storm could be in the works.

[Tabitha]

That's some nice 48 hour blizzard out here the 12z ECMWF has on days 4 through 6.

 

It would be nice to experience some winter for a change.

 

To me; it has just been one long autumn thus far.

[Tabitha]

12z Euro also showing the major thermal gradient next week. 2m temps of 14F here and 61F in the south burbs of chitown late Tuesday. Not hard to believe a storm could be in the works.

 

Most of west central Minnesota (well west of Minneapolis & Rochester) has had a perfectly dreadful snow season; so they are overdue for a storm.

 

The Law of Averages tends to even the score over the passage of time.

[CentralNebWeather]

Awesome, this storm is 2016/2017-ing us.

I am hoping winter has at least 1 decent size storm for us before it is done.  Models today don't show much for Nebraska.  Appears to be Dakotas and Minnesota specials in the extended.

[Minny_Weather]

I am hoping winter has at least 1 decent size storm for us before it is done.  Models today don't show much for Nebraska.  Appears to be Dakotas and Minnesota specials in the extended.

GFS showed over a foot for the Panhandle, and nothing for Falls City. Almost nothing here. What is this, late March?

 

It'd be stupid to call it a Winter cancel, cuz March is more conducive to big storms here than December, but it certainly feels like it at this point.

[Tabitha]

 

Most of west central Minnesota (well west of Minneapolis & Rochester) has had a perfectly dreadful snow season; so they are overdue for a storm.

 

The Law of Averages tends to even the score over the passage of time.

 

[westMJim]

It is sunny and a very mild 47° here at my house. The last reading at the airport was 43°

Getting a lot of snow melt off the roof still a lot of snow on the ground but parts of the road are now showing.  Both here at my house and at the airport today is the warmest day since January 27^th

[Minny_Weather]

sfav2_CONUS_6h_2018021418.png

 

God Southern California's mountains are having a horrible Winter. Snow levels have been high for whatever precip they HAVE gotten, so only the peaks have seen appreciable snow, and even that's going right away. Feel for the ski resorts there.

[Tabitha]

God Southern California's mountains are having a horrible Winter. Snow levels have been high for whatever precip they HAVE gotten, so only the peaks have seen appreciable snow, and even that's going right away. Feel for the ski resorts there.

 

I think I wrote something yesterday about how Flagstaff has seen about 1/5th their normal year to date snowfall...and what happens in Southern California is often replicated in the mountains of Arizona.

 

Though Flagstaff is very far to the south; they still average about 110" of snow per year...last time I checked the records...so this is from memory.

 

They've seen less than a foot and a half so far this winter.

 

That 7000' feet of elevation can usually overcome quite a few negatives.

[WBadgersW]

i don't. I want the Rockies to cash in so I can go skiing in April

No thank you. I would rather not have to camp and hike in feet of snow.

 

Of course, water shortages may occur in CO this summer, so hopefully they get some decent rains.

[BrianJK]

Rapid melt in progress.  Sounds like a flowing river outside. 

[gosaints]

destructive day on the snowpack here.

[Tabitha]

Snowfall 2017-18:

Through 2/13/2018

 

Lincoln, NE: 15.4"

Denver, CO: 15.4" (annual average about 55")

Flagstaff, AZ: 12.6" (annual average about 110")

[St Paul Storm]

sfav2_CONUS_6h_2018021418.png

 

 

I’ve heard about the wind blowing away the fertile soil out there due to a lack of snow cover. Might have repercussions into the growing season.

[Tom]

Rapid melt in progress. Sounds like a flowing river outside.

For sure, snow pack killer today with full sunshine...I’d say we lost a few inches today, if not more.

[Minny_Weather]

Here we're down to patches of snow in sunny areas, although it's mostly snow with a few patches of grass in shady areas. The past two days have been snow murderers.

[snowstorm83]

It feels nice outside, but I want my snow cover back...we have all year to look at grass.

[St Paul Storm]

42F and full sun doing work here too. Ran out of wind shield wiper fluid on my way home for lunch. That sucked.

[Tom]

It feels nice outside, but I want my snow cover back...we have all year to look at grass.

Doesn't it feel sad to see it disappear???  LOL, it's like I have an emotional attachment and don't want it go away....just took a couple measurements and I have 7-9" in spots across my yard.  

[Tabitha]

Doesn't it feel sad to see it disappear???  LOL, it's like I have an emotional attachment and don't want it go away....just took a couple measurements and I have 7-9" in spots across my yard.  

 

It is very heartbreaking; but on the good side; a new snow cover will always come back to replace it.

 

In many ways it is the very same snow that has sublimated; since the hydrolic cycle is a comprehensive and never-ending affair...

[Tabitha]

It is very heartbreaking; but on the good side; a new snow cover will always come back to replace it.

 

In many ways it is the very same snow that has sublimated; since the hydrolic cycle is a comprehensive and never-ending affair...

 

You know what they say...if something is yours; set it free; and behold; it shall come back to thee...

 

Or something like that...

[Tom]

It is very heartbreaking; but on the good side; a new snow cover will always come back to replace it.

 

In many ways it is the very same snow that has sublimated; since the hydrolic cycle is a comprehensive and never-ending affair...

Appreciate what you have and live your life day by day...there will be another snowstorm, another winter season to live through...sometimes I wonder if I will ever make a move into the mountains somewhere.

[Tabitha]

You know what they say...if something is yours; set it free; and behold; it shall come back to thee...

 

Or something like that...

 

 

Though you might not want to test that with any pet birds...

[Tom]

12z Euro also showing the major thermal gradient next week. 2m temps of 14F here and 61F in the south burbs of chitown late Tuesday. Not hard to believe a storm could be in the works.

No joke!  Spring fever to the E/SE while you are draped in the arctic air...widespread 70's are going to be a big tease...

 

 

[Tony]

No joke!  Spring fever to the E/SE while you are draped in the arctic air...widespread 70's are going to be a big tease...

 

 

Looking like sig icing not out of the question for next week. Where it sets up could get hit pretty darn hard. 

[Tom]

Looking like sig icing not out of the question for next week. Where it sets up could get hit pretty darn hard. 

Yup, not a big fan of ice...this is going to be a rather interesting week of weather...

[hlcater]

yea ya'll can have your ice but keep it away from me. Hard, Hard, Hard pass on the 12z euro run. Ice is worse than 33 and rain.

 

Also a warm sector like that would probably equate to some sort of severe threat. Cant really tell where or degree due to data limitations on the euro.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Not happy with what im seeing for next week

[bud2380]

Euro with major ice for Cedar Rapids next week

 

 

TUE 00Z 20-FEB 3.8 8.3 1009 95 94 0.42 562 555
TUE 06Z 20-FEB -1.8 7.3 1016 85 75 0.33 563 551
TUE 12Z 20-FEB -1.7 8.6 1017 88 61 0.13 564 551
TUE 18Z 20-FEB -0.8 8.7 1017 94 87 0.20 565 552
WED 00Z 21-FEB -2.1 7.0 1018 92 94 0.21 565 551
WED 06Z 21-FEB -4.4 4.4 1021 85 82 0.16 563 546
WED 12Z 21-FEB -6.4 0.3 1024 67 90 0.01 561 542
WED 18Z 21-FEB -6.0 -2.5 1025 60 100 0.02 560 540
THU 00Z 22-FEB -6.5 -5.1 1025 68 97 0.16 555 536 

[Niko]

Gorgeous evening outside......it feels like early to mid March. Haven't check my temps, but I think they are in the 30s.

[westMJim]

Grand Rapids had a official high of at least 46° (48° here at my house) Here is the latest on the ice cover on the Great Lakes

 

http://woodtv.com/blog/2018/02/14/lake-michigan-satellite-picture-shows-the-ice/

[gimmesnow]

I've got a really bad feeling about the rest of Feb. Like it's going to get warm, soggy, screw up the ski hill, and then get cold. That NW flow didn't stay very long at all.