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February 2018 Observations and Discussion

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#1001
Tabitha

Posted 20 February 2018 - 09:28 AM

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Seasonal Snowfall 2017-18

Through 2/19//2018

 

Marquette: 106.0"

Sault Ste. Marie: 85.5"

Grand Rapids: 66.8"

Duluth 53.3"

Detroit: 52.7"

International Falls: 42.5"

Milwaukee: 32.7"

Rochester MN: 32.3"

Rapid City: 32.0"

Minneapolis: 31.5"

Chicago O'Hare: 30.3"

Madison WI: 27.5"

Norfolk NE: 25.8"

Green Bay: 24.4"

Sioux Falls SD: 23.9"

Des Moines: 22.5"

Waterloo IA: 21.8"

Fargo: 19.0"

Bismarck: 17.3"

Mason City IA: 16.4"

Pierre SD: 16.3"

Lincoln: 15.5"

Omaha: 12.9"

Topeka: 7.2"

Springfield IL: 7.0"

St Louis: 5.5"

Kansas City MO: 5.4"

Tulsa OK: 2.0"

Wichita: 0.4"

Oklahoma City: 0.1"


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#1002
St Paul Storm

Posted 20 February 2018 - 10:01 AM

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Wow there are a few bombs in the 12z GEFS. A few sub 985s and a 979 in W WI.

#1003
Tom

Posted 20 February 2018 - 10:15 AM

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GoSaints will be coming back in good timing if the storm slows down a bit. Just as the pattern turns snowy.

#1004
Money

Posted 20 February 2018 - 10:16 AM

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Euro coming in stronger from previous runs

1010 in Southern Kansas at 96

Gfs is in the same location but 4 mb stronger

#1005
westMJim

Posted 20 February 2018 - 10:24 AM

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Seasonal Snowfall 2017-18

Through 2/19//2018

 

Marquette: 106.0"

Sault Ste. Marie: 85.5"

Grand Rapids: 66.8"

Duluth 53.3"

Detroit: 52.7"

International Falls: 42.5"

Milwaukee: 32.7"

Rochester MN: 32.3"

Rapid City: 32.0"

Minneapolis: 31.5"

Chicago O'Hare: 30.3"

Madison WI: 27.5"

Norfolk NE: 25.8"

Green Bay: 24.4"

Sioux Falls SD: 23.9"

Des Moines: 22.5"

Waterloo IA: 21.8"

Fargo: 19.0"

Bismarck: 17.3"

Mason City IA: 16.4"

Pierre SD: 16.3"

Lincoln: 15.5"

Omaha: 12.9"

Topeka: 7.2"

Springfield IL: 7.0"

St Louis: 5.5"

Kansas City MO: 5.4"

Tulsa OK: 2.0"

Wichita: 0.4"

Oklahoma City: 0.1"

Here are some total snow fall amounts from some other locations

 

Erie PA   155.2”  (120.9” fell in December)

Rochester NY   85.7”

Buffalo  83.2”

Cleveland 36.9”

Albany   35.0”

Boston  34.8”

New York City Central park   23.8”

Indianapolis    9.0”

Washington DC   3.3” 


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#1006
LNK_Weather

Posted 20 February 2018 - 10:25 AM

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Euro with 5" here for Saturday's wave.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 6 (Last: 7/18/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#1007
Money

Posted 20 February 2018 - 10:26 AM

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Euro with 5" here for Saturday's wave.


How does it look in IA/WI?

#1008
LNK_Weather

Posted 20 February 2018 - 10:31 AM

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How does it look in IA/WI?

Rain/snow line looks to be roughly along a line from Kansas City-Ottumwa-Dubuque-Your place. That line ain't messin' around, it basically becomes rain at 32 degrees. No wetbulbing down.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 6 (Last: 7/18/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#1009
CentralNebWeather

Posted 20 February 2018 - 10:36 AM

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Always hard to see on weather.us images, but it appears that Central and Southern Nebraska are hit hard from the 12Z Euro run.  I am talking about the Saturday storm to not confuse anyone.



#1010
Hawkeye

Posted 20 February 2018 - 10:37 AM

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12z Euro... Thursday snow.  All the models crap this system out as it reaches eastern Iowa, then refocus the snow well nw in the Dakotas and Minnesota.

 

Attached File  ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_72.png   125.87KB   2 downloads


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#1011
CentralNebWeather

Posted 20 February 2018 - 10:40 AM

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12z Euro... Thursday snow.  All the models crap this system out as it reaches eastern Iowa.

 

attachicon.gifecmwf_acc_snow_mw_72.png

Could you post the Euro map of the Saturday snow?  Thanks



#1012
Money

Posted 20 February 2018 - 10:40 AM

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12z Euro... Thursday snow.  All the models crap this system out as it reaches eastern Iowa.
 
attachicon.gifecmwf_acc_snow_mw_72.png


Image for Saturday’s system plz?

#1013
Tom

Posted 20 February 2018 - 10:41 AM

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I think the high for the day has been reached with a current balmy temp of 65F! Record for the day is 70F which I believe was achieved just last year during the epic Feb torch!
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#1014
Hawkeye

Posted 20 February 2018 - 10:49 AM

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I can't separate the systems, but here's the 12z euro through the weekend... a nice big goose egg over southeast Iowa.  I have a feeling several good snowfalls will miss me nw over the next 2+ weeks.

 

Attached File  ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_120.png   140.3KB   4 downloads


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season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#1015
Madtown

Posted 20 February 2018 - 10:50 AM

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36 here

#1016
Money

Posted 20 February 2018 - 10:52 AM

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I can't separate the systems, but here's the 12z euro through the weekend.
 
attachicon.gifecmwf_acc_snow_mw_120.png


Solid 4-6 ish even without it wrapping up much

Not bad

#1017
CentralNebWeather

Posted 20 February 2018 - 10:52 AM

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I can't separate the systems, but here's the 12z euro through the weekend.

 

attachicon.gifecmwf_acc_snow_mw_120.png

Thanks a lot.



#1018
St Paul Storm

Posted 20 February 2018 - 10:59 AM

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GFS basically on its own at this point with regards to a deep storm system for the weekend.

#1019
FarmerRick

Posted 20 February 2018 - 11:50 AM

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No threads yet for the 2 upcoming storms?   :(



#1020
LNK_Weather

Posted 20 February 2018 - 11:52 AM

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No threads yet for the 2 upcoming storms?   :(

May have to start one for at least Thursday's/Friday's soon. Des Moines & Minnesota posters may see something good out of those.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 6 (Last: 7/18/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#1021
james1976

Posted 20 February 2018 - 12:04 PM

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No threads yet for the 2 upcoming storms? :(

Any member can create a thread

#1022
St Paul Storm

Posted 20 February 2018 - 12:14 PM

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No threads yet for the 2 upcoming storms?   :(


We were going to wait until later today I think, just to make sure these aren’t duds.

#1023
St Paul Storm

Posted 20 February 2018 - 12:42 PM

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Nice hit here on the 18z NAM for Thursday. Models today showing a good trend.

#1024
Tabitha

Posted 20 February 2018 - 12:51 PM

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The 12z EC Control looks like the Blizzard of the Century up through Nebraska & central South Dakota on Day 9.  More than 2 inches L.E.

 

It would be nice if it shifted 150 miles to the west...



#1025
Tom

Posted 20 February 2018 - 12:55 PM

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12z EPS looks good for SE NE/IA/MN into NW WI for the Thu/Fri wave. The weekend system looks solid from C NE into S MN and N WI. Very similar to the GEFS. If anyone wants to fire up threads go right ahead. I’m on the road today.

#1026
Tom

Posted 20 February 2018 - 01:00 PM

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The 12z EC Control looks like the Blizzard of the Century up through Nebraska & central South Dakota on Day 9. More than 2 inches L.E.

It would be nice if it shifted 150 miles to the west...

That storm fits the LRC’s Oct 11th/12th storm system and would be quite the bowling ball to open up March like a Lion. The 12z Euro op had a similar size/strength system during this period.

#1027
Tabitha

Posted 20 February 2018 - 01:02 PM

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That’s storm fits the LRC’s Oct 11th/12th storm system and would be quite the bowling ball to open up March like a Lion. The 12z Euro op had a similar size/strength system during this period.

 

 

I am sensing that there is going to be a very, very large snowstorm around here (western SD) around Day 14 / March 3.

 

We'll pull the post in 2 weeks to see if I was Right or Wrong.

 

There is not too much meteorology in this particular prediction of mine; just an innate sense.



#1028
St Paul Storm

Posted 20 February 2018 - 01:03 PM

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I can fire up the thread for the Thurs/Fri system after the 18z GFS.
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#1029
Money

Posted 20 February 2018 - 01:05 PM

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Let’s just not create a thread and discuss everything here

#1030
Tom

Posted 20 February 2018 - 01:13 PM

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I got the sense there will be some pretty large storms in March, but first, let’s get through February. Pretty wild pattern taking shape with all the blocking around.

#1031
westMJim

Posted 20 February 2018 - 01:28 PM

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New record high temperature set here at Grand Rapids.  The high for today is now 62° with a DP of 60° here at my house it is a little cooler iwth the high for today at 60°  Right now getting very heavy rain falling 



#1032
jaster220

Posted 20 February 2018 - 01:35 PM

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'freal

 

Very nice storm and fits the pattern...folks NW of Chi are in for a nice snow storm...

 

Meanwhile back in SWMI, a newly hatched NWS headline has been rolled out by GRR - WInter Swamp Warnings are in effect and look to continue with this pattern! 


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#1033
Money

Posted 20 February 2018 - 01:43 PM

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FYI 18z icon gets the low down to 984 in eastern WI

https://www.tropical...18022018&fh=108

A lot like 12z gfs

#1034
Money

Posted 20 February 2018 - 01:58 PM

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Gfs is gonna crush SPS this run

Way nw and stronger through 96

#1035
St Paul Storm

Posted 20 February 2018 - 01:59 PM

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At hr 84 in the 18z GFS I’ll say this thing is gonna go NW. Looks like it’s gonna go deep.

Edit: ninja’d by Money

#1036
Money

Posted 20 February 2018 - 02:00 PM

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At hr 84 in the 18z GFS I’ll say this thing is gonna go NW. Looks like it’s gonna go deep.


Too bad the gfs is a bad model and got smoked last week lol

#1037
Money

Posted 20 February 2018 - 02:02 PM

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Jeez

978.5 just west of GB

NW WI gets smoked

#1038
St Paul Storm

Posted 20 February 2018 - 02:02 PM

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Too bad the gfs is a bad model and got smoked last week lol


Good thing it’s no longer last week. New week, new scores. ; )
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#1039
Money

Posted 20 February 2018 - 02:04 PM

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Biggest change this run is the HP moved out faster and was farther north

Allowed it to strengthen quicker

#1040
St Paul Storm

Posted 20 February 2018 - 02:05 PM

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That’s like a 150 mile jump NW with the heavy snow in one model run. Just terrible.
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#1041
Tabitha

Posted 20 February 2018 - 02:21 PM

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That’s like a 150 mile jump NW with the heavy snow in one model run. Just terrible.

 

 

The GFS was once a terrible model; then they upgraded it and it got a whole lot worse.


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#1042
Illinois_WX

Posted 20 February 2018 - 02:33 PM

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ICON hits us good. The ratios for this storm look awful for anyone who gets hit by it though, so I don't think it's worth getting worked up about yet.


LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#1043
LNK_Weather

Posted 20 February 2018 - 02:33 PM

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Looking forward to Thursday. That should be an interesting day, and it'll all be happening in daylight too. Regardless of ptype, I feel sorry for the suckers who have to drive in the afternoon.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 6 (Last: 7/18/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#1044
jcwxguy

Posted 20 February 2018 - 02:41 PM

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I drive for my jobs, every day this week including Sunday

#1045
Tabitha

Posted 20 February 2018 - 02:46 PM

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The 12z EC Control looks like the Blizzard of the Century up through Nebraska & central South Dakota on Day 9.  More than 2 inches L.E.

 

It would be nice if it shifted 150 miles to the west...

 

18z GFS takes this one (the Big March 1st & 2nd one) from Denver to NW Minnesota; with rain practically into SE ND.

 

Not too many rain storms occur in ND in February.

 

Good model...lol.

 

*Actually; after double checking the animation; it is a very big snowstorm for ND and central SD...and such a track is not unprecedented...but not too common either.

 

With a big trough at higher levels developing in Idaho; its not out of the question that enough warm air could be drawn well north ahead of the storm...especially if what is called a "negative tilt" to the atmosphere develops...sort of a powerful upper low that practically cuts off; almost causing a regression of the normal westerly flow.  These are truly the greatest precipitation makers in the middle latitudes because of the blocking that is generated.

 

Truth be told; its not all that different from the ECMWF control run I previously cited...so maybe I should not be so quick to deride it.



#1046
buzzman289

Posted 20 February 2018 - 02:56 PM

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Iowa low magnet in full force lol


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#1047
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 20 February 2018 - 03:11 PM

NWLinnCountyIA

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Maybe we can bag a 985 pressure reading??? Either suppression or a low cutting over Iowa. Rinse and repeat.


2017-18 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 40.0"

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 2.0")(Feb. 3: 0.4") (Feb. 5: 4.6")(Feb. 6-8: 1.0") (Feb. 9: 4.3")(Feb. 10: 2.8")(Feb. 11: 1.2”) (Feb. 17: 1.8")(Mar. 6: 1.9") (Mar. 24: 8.6") (Apr. x 0.3") (Apr. 8: 3.3")


#1048
LNK_Weather

Posted 20 February 2018 - 03:29 PM

LNK_Weather

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We've been getting flurries all day despite varying cloud cover. 19.9*F.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 6 (Last: 7/18/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#1049
westMJim

Posted 20 February 2018 - 03:38 PM

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Two records set today at Grand Rapids with the high of 62° that broke the old record for the date of 61° set in 1930 and now a new rain fall record for the date. Note the most rain in one day in February is 2.96” on February 21st 1997 and that was a rain to snow event with 6” of snow on top of all that rain

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS, MI

0534 PM EST TUE FEB 20 2018

 

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT GRAND RAPIDS MI...

 

 A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.9 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT GRAND RAPIDS MI TODAY.

THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.4 SET IN 1898.


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#1050
Tabitha

Posted 20 February 2018 - 04:03 PM

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It is 0 F at the Rapid City Airport; and most of the models don't have anything too extreme tonight.

 

However the ICON drops them down to -28 F by morning; and I absolutely agree with it.  Maybe not quite that far; but at least to -20 F.